As does happen at times, our wagering philosophy worked for us and against us during the two nights of Breeders Crown elims and preps at Woodbine.
Of our choices to win, recorded here and in our “Countdown” blog, we went for outside contenders but for four entries that we saw no reason to bet against and instead offered them as exotic keys for the win spot. There were two strong outsiders winning over the two nights, but neither was from our catalog of choices. Let’s review where we wound up for each night.
Our two-year-old colt pace elims went one for two, although Captaintreacherous fooled no one and won, paying a paltry $2.30. With Vegas Vacation second the exacta came back $5.60.
Next, frosh-filly pacers went in a single prep and here is one spot we lost while being correct in our scenario. Our choice, Love Canal, was second at 13-1 (she paid $10.30 to place), losing to a 10-1 shot. She was the other element in an exacta that paid $146.30.
In the second colt pace we also went against the choice and were right but with the wrong colt. Our choice, Good Day Mate, was horrible, finishing sixth at 17-1 to a 13-1 shot.
In the frosh-colt trot we wound up with 60-1 on Caveat Emptor, who finished fourth while not racing as we predicted (he showed zero early foot). The top choice won his eighth-straight race as the overwhelming public choice.
On Saturday, the first of two elims for soph-filly pacers went to the top two favorites, with our choice, Ramalama, going off at 19-1, showing little against them.
Another big favorite followed, as Little Brown Fox stormed the first of two glamour-boy trot elims, while our choice, Prestidigator, was second at a surprising 9-5. We thought he would be more but let us down nonetheless.
A shocker was next, as Market Share (20 cents on the dollar) lost to the supplemented Intimidate, who was 11-1. We felt the winner should have been at least 20-1, coming off of two conditioned races where he defeated nothing, though easily.
The Open Mare Trot prep offered 5-1 on Temla Celeber S, one of the two choices we presented (she finished fifth). The other, Beatgoeson Hanover, won paying only $4.20.
The first glamour-boy pace elim featured a winner we mentioned in our live tweets, though we stayed with our win choice, Hillbilly Hanover, at 5-1. Bettor’s Edge somehow made a first-over trip into a win in a cavalry charge at the wire, paying $37.20.
In the other filly pace, Handsoffmycookie finished fifth at 10-1 against the dead-on favorite.
Lastly, Mel Mara finished second at 4-1 in the other soph-colt pace elim, losing to Heston Blue Chip, remarkably paying $8.30 against the likes of Sweet Lou and supplemented Michaels Power, who were third and fourth, respectively and the first and second choices. A Rocknroll Dance, surprisingly racing just after throat surgery, did not make the final, finishing seventh of seven.
Remember we will be studying all of the elimination and prep replays, looking for trips that may allow us to recommend some terrific overlays in the cavalcade of finals.
Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog will host extensive analysis for the Oct. 27 finals, again in league with this blog, Thursday night—Friday morning, Oct. 26. Follow us for the top wagering value contenders.
Prepping at Woodbine on the program for two-year-old elims and preps on Friday, Rebeka Bayama sizzled to a 1:48.4 win. The five-year-old is one of three supplements this year and looks exceptionally fit for the Oct. 27 Breeders Crown Mare Pace. You might recall we supported her as her late-season binge began, helping her to become a threat at the “Big Noise” of 2012. There are 11 scheduled in that field.
The proverbial Fat Lady refuses to sing to harness racing in California. The state racing board approved the license application by W&W LLC to conduct a meet at Cal Expo from Dec. 26, 2012 through May 25, 2013. The prospect of three nights a week of harness action is on the table for the new lessees, offering Thursday, Friday and Saturday programs. Watch this column for news on that meet .
The upcoming Dover Downs 2012-2013 season will feature 15 races daily. The track’s 44th season completes on April 11, 2013. Exceptions are: no racing on Thanksgiving, Nov. 22, an annual one-week Christmas break, Dec. 21 through Dec. 28, dark on New Year’s Eve, Jan. 31, Super Bowl Sunday, Feb.3 and Easter Sunday, March 31.
In November and December, Dover will race five days a week, Sundays through Thursdays, with dark days on Fridays and Saturdays. The January-February schedule including March 2 will add a sixth day of racing each week on Saturdays. Weekend racing on Saturday and Sunday beginning at 1 p.m. Five-days-a-week racing returns in March and April. Monday through Thursday post time is 4:30 p.m. Sunday racing in November begins at 5:30 p.m.
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beatsblog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.
Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways and for live coverage of the Breeders Crown elims and finals. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.
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Cartoon by Thom Pye