Right And Wrong: Winning Opinions from a losing Kentucky Derby day
RIGHT: Nyquist was the best two-year-old and best three-year-old. This might sound like a funny brag considering I didn’t pick him to win the race, but at 2-to-1 keying a 14-to-1 exacta I have no regrets about opposing him on top because even if I had picked him to win I still wouldn’t have won anything on the race at that price with (my actual pick) Exaggerator second. But the respect for Nyquist’s talent was clearly there. I just gambled against it trumping the rest of the group.
WRONG: Picking against Nyquist. From a horseplayer perspective, it’s easy to forgive the pick against—especially considering how well Exaggerator ran—but the fact is everyone wants to pick the Derby winner, and I had my chance after having Nyquist on top all year.
RIGHT: You can’t win the Derby off an eight week layoff and/or no race beyond 1 1/16 miles. That’s what Destin was trying to do, and he ran well enough to make me think that maybe with a prep he could have had a say in this race.
WRONG: The Wood Memorial wasn’t a bad race. Outwork ran more like maiden Trojan Nation than the other way around, and neither factored in the Kentucky Derby. Admittedly neither really factored that much in my betting, but I did thing Trojan Nation could do something more than finish 16th, but he and Outwork’s runs indicate I definitely had the Wood wrong.
RIGHT: Mohaymen just isn’t a classic horse. There was nothing wrong with Mohaymen’s fourth in the Derby. You could say he even outran my expectations of him, but I completely tossed him from win consideration, and he was a never threat for that spot.
WRONG: Surgical Strike will win the American Turf. Sure, he ran well at 15-to-1, and I have no regrets about betting him at that price, but considering he was the horse I was most excited about betting all week, I think it fair to mention that he didn’t win. We’ll keep firing on him, though!