The Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide contains expert selections, tip sheets, historical trends for key Breeders’ Cup races, Classic day overview and much much more!
Download the full PDF for FREE to find better betting picks, analysis and tips to help maneuver the handicapping landscape for the 2017 Breeders’ Cup.
Expert Picks for Friday for Breeders’ Cup Bets at Del Mar
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3 Del Mar, Download the PDF for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Picks!
|Ed DeRosa||Vance Hanson||Nicolle Neulist||Kellie Reilly||James Scully|
|BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF||4||Madeline||2||Happily||2||Happily||10||September||2||Happily|
|2||Streamline||11||Rushing Fall||10||September||2||Happily||11||Rushing Fall|
|11||Rushing Fall||10||September||8||Significant Form||11||Rushing Fall||7||Capla Temptress|
|BREEDERS’ CUP LAS VEGAS DIRT MILE||3||Sharp Azteca||8||Accelerate||3||Sharp Azteca||8||Accelerate||5||Awesome Slew|
|6||Mor Spirit||3||Sharp Azteca||6||Mor Spirit||5||Awesome Slew||10||Practical Joke|
|5||Awesome Slew||10||Practical Joke||9||Battle of Midway||10||Practical Joke||3||Sharp Azteca|
|BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF||16||Pubilius Syrus||6||Masar||1||Mendelssohn||2||Untamed Domain||11||Snapper Sinclair|
|13||My Boy Jack||4||Catholic Boy||5||Beckford||5||Beckford||6||Masar|
|7||James Garfield||9||Encumbered||6||Masar||6||Masar||7||James Garfield|
|BREEDERS’ CUP LONGINES DISTAFF||5||Elate||6||Forever Unbridled||7||Paradise Woods||5||Elate||5||Elate|
|4||Abel Tasman||7||Paradise Woods||6||Forever Unbridled||6||Forever Unbridled||7||Paradise Woods|
|6||Forever Unbridled||5||Elate||2||Stellar Wind||2||Stellar Wind||2||Stellar Wind|
Expert Thoughts and Tips for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff
One of my edicts as a horseplayer is not to bet horses as the favorite whose marquee performance as a racehorse isn’t a win.
Stellar Wind fits this description in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, as the multiple Grade 1 winner is the morning line favorite in one of the most competitive races of Breeders’ Cup weekend with champion older female and champion three-year-old filly likely on the line.
Sure, Stellar Wind has defeated Beholder, but it was a second in the 2015 Distaff that earned her champion threeyear-old filly honors. Stopchargingmaria won that Distaff, and she’d probably be no better than fifth choice in this year’s renewal.
Mix in Stellar Wind skipping the Zenyatta Stakes and some lackluster workouts into this, and she’s definitely a play against in this spot.
That leaves Forever Unbridled as the clear choice among older females. She defeated Songbird last out and ran admirably behind Beholder and Songbird in last year’s Distaff. If there were a head to head wager among top older females, I’d prefer Forever Unbridled to Stellar Wind.
But for the most part, we bet to win, and the value on the win end looks to be on Elate, who sports the field’s
best last-out Speed Rating and top Class Rating on the Brisnet.com scales with the added benefit to backers of
being one of the top workers according to local observers.
Abel Tasman is the only other one who will figure for me, as the top-ranked Prime Power horse who should be rolling with our other preferences Forever Unbridled and Elate.
Make no mistake, though, Elate is the top tab.
Expert Thoughts and Tips for the Breeders’ Cup Classic
Unless your predictive powers are keen and suggest a serious regression by one or more of the leading
candidates, the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on paper figures to be dominated by the top four betting choices.
Some would argue you could narrow it down even more – to just Gun Runner and Arrogate. Will the former’s
graceful yet relatively unchallenging series of preps have him ready to land the knockout blow against the
toughest group he’s faced all year over a distance he’s not yet won at? Will the defending champion return to the very best form we saw last year and over the winter following two sub-par efforts over this very track?
At short odds, we’ll say no to both and go with the progressive three-year-old West Coast on top. The youngest of Bob Baffert’s triumvirate, he looks to make it four in a row in this race for the Hall of Fame conditioner following successes by fellow sophomores Bayern, American Pharoah, and Arrogate.
Collected is the enigma of the quartet. Vastly improved this year and winner of the track-and-distance Pacific
Classic (G1), he could be good enough to win or might find the early pressure too much to sustain.
Need a trifecta/superfecta kicker? Pavel is light on experience, but appears to have a bright future ahead of him.
Continental Impact On Breeders’ Cup
by Alastair Bull
With so much prizemoney at stake, it was no surprise that the Breeders’ Cup was an instant success with North American owners and trainers.
What was perhaps a surprise was how quickly the rest of the world took to it.
Foreign horses headed across the Atlantic from the very first Breeders’ Cup in 1984, and emerged with an exacta, with Lashkari defeating fellow French galloper All Along in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The foreign contingent at the Breeders’ Cup has overwhelmingly been from Europe, with the number of European starters each year normally hitting double figures.
Turf is the mainstay of European racing, and as such it’s not surprising 48 of the 55 European triumphs have been on grass. The only turf race they are yet to win is the Turf Sprint, possibly because their sprinters race almost exclusively on a straight course rather than around a turn.
When assessing their chances in these races, it’s best to consider if they’ve been targeting the Breeders’ Cup or tackling it as an afterthought, and to consider how they are likely to do on tighter U.S. tracks; it may be more difficult for back runners.
European-trained horses have, however, also made their mark on dirt. Four winners of the Juvenile were trained in Europe, while they have won the Sprint once and the Classic twice.
Two of these successes (Raven’s Pass in the Classic and Vale of York in the Juvenile) came on a Polytrack surface, which records show turf horses do better on than pure dirt tracks. Many of the others, however, were running for the first time on dirt.
If they are U.S.-bred, or if they have a pedigree with plenty of dirt runners, they probably have more chance. All three of the Juvenile winners on dirt were bred in the U.S, as was Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat), a close second in the Classic in 2000. Also have a look at their galloping action.
Though Europeans have taken to the Breeders’ Cup in high numbers, horses from jurisdictions outside Europe and North America have run much less frequently.
Though South American-bred horses like Bayakoa, Paseana, and Invasor have won at the Breeders’ Cup, the only South American-trained winner was Calidoscopio in the now-discontinued Breeders’ Cup Marathon.
About a dozen Asian horses have raced at the Breeders’ Cup, mostly from Japan. None of them have won, though the Japanese-bred, European-trained Karakontie won the Mile in 2014. Given they have won at the top level in Europe, however, their time will likely come.
Horses from Australia and New Zealand that have started had all been switched to Northern Hemisphere stables. Their best effort came from Strawberry Road, the 1985 Turf runner-up. African horses have also been difficult to attract.
Turf racing is generally the only major options for horses from these continents, and all these countries have rich prizes available at home around Breeders’ Cup time, like the Melbourne Cup carnival, Hong Kong International meet, and Japan Cup.
The most likely horses to come are either horses switched to northern hemisphere stables, or colts whose dual hemisphere stallion potential could be boosted by a Breeders’ Cup success.
Del Mar At A Glance For the Previous Meet
|AVG. WINNING ODDS: 5.82 – 1|
|FAVORITE WIN%: 27% FAVORITE ITM%: 64%|
|Pick 6 Jackpot||138,466.56|
|Place Pick All||8,310.97|
|Super High Five||15,630.05|
|TRACK BIAS WEEK (07/19 – 09/04)|
|Distance||# Race||% Wire||Best Style||Best Posts|
|TRACK BIAS MEET (08/29 – 09/04)|
|Distance||# Race||% Wire||Best Style||Best Posts|
|HOT TRAINERS||Starts||Wins||Place||Show||Avg. Odds||Winning Favorites||‘16-’ 17 Win %|
|McCarthy Michael W.||14||5||1||1||11.03||2||15%|
|HOT JOCKEYS||Starts||Wins||Place||Show||Avg. Odds||Winning Favorites||‘16-’ 17 Win %|
|COLD TRAINERS||Starts||Wins||Place||Show||Avg. Odds||Beaten Favorites||‘16-’ 17 Win %|
|Palma Hector O.||10||0||1||1||21.23||0||13%|
|COLD JOCKEYS||Starts||Wins||Place||Show||Avg. Odds||Beaten Favorites||‘16-’ 17 Win %|
|Pedroza Martin A.||20||0||2||3||22.26||0||12%|
More betting information is available in our free online handicapping library.