How you bet the Pick 5 today at Turf Paradise where there is a $11,485 carryover depends largely on what you make of the first-time starters in the 5th, 6th, and 8th races (the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th legs, respectively).
Yes, three of the five races in this sequence are for maidens, and two of those races feature standouts among those who have run, but first timers with enough pedigree to not dismiss them completely.
In race 5 (leg 2) #6 Shared Vision is the most likely winner, and while #7 Tiz Rolly is 10-to-1 on the morning line, his connections merit some respect with trainer-jockey stats hovering around 20% for the meeting. His dam has produced no starters, and her family is void of blacktype, but sire Tribal Rule fires 14% debut winners. I’m willing to single the 6 but the 7 is on all backup tickets.
In race 6 (leg 3) #2 Flashy Wager is an even more likely winner than Shared Vision in the previous race, and #8 Shorthorn is an even longer morning line price than Tiz Rolly, but again there’s some things to like: His sire Monba gets 15% debut winners and dam Virginia Bee has three winners from four starters including two stakes winners. Same situation as previous leg: Happy to single the chalk on most tickets but anything deeper and you have to use Shorthorn.
Race 8 (leg 5) is the toughest of the sequence with only #8 Paris Noise looking overmatched. #4 Logan’s Heroe is the shortest morning line price of any debut runner in the sequence, coming in at 6-to-1 with the same jockey as Tiz Rolly. He’s by Marino Marini who gets 13% debut winners. The dam’s lone other foal is a winner. I’d like to get to this leg live to all but the 8. Even #7 Sunset Play at 20-to-1 morning line is worth inclusion. He showed some speed last time and gets a trainer to a guy with big numbers for the class.
The all “A” ticket is somewhat sparse: 4, 5 with 6 with 2 with 5 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. I’ll play it so that at least two of the “A” picks from races 4-7 (legs 1-4) has to win. Can be tough to lean on that man “A” tabs, but primary issue is how deep I have to go once I get past them.
The “C” column for each race looks like this
4 (1): 3,7,9
5 (2): 1,3,5,7
6 (3): 4,8
7 (4) 2,4,8,9
8 (5): none
As you can see because I’m so determined to use 7 horses in the finale that limits my options on how many “B” picks I can sprinkle into the sequence.