The $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic shapes up to be an excellent betting race, with a competitive field of 14 set to enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs on November 3. Focusing upon the last three races, let’s review the BRIS Speed ratings for eight Classic winners this decade and this year’s contenders.

CLASSIC WINNERS (2010-17)

Gun Runner:   114
    107
    107
     
Arrogate:   124
    97
    100
     
American Pharoah:   100
    104
    109
     
Bayern:   109
    80
    106
     
Mucho Macho Man:   113
    100
    100
     
Fort Larned:   111
    109
    106
     
Drosselmeyer:   109
    92
    102
     
Blame:   112
    108
    102


Analysis:

Every Classic winner shows at least a pair of triple-digit numbers, with six-of-eight registering triple-digit numbers exclusively.

Every Classic winner this decade has reached the 109 BRIS Speed rating threshold.

2018 CLASSIC CONTENDERS

Accelerate:   106
    114
    111
     
Axelrod:   110
    99
    96
     
Catholic Boy:   108
    96
    99
     
City of Light:   100
    105
    108
     
Discreet Lover:   106
    88
    97
     
Lone Sailor:   97
    91
    93
     
McKinzie:   112
    98
    104
     
Mendelssohn:   104
    104
    90
     
Mind Your Biscuits:   109
    97
    106
     
Pavel:   101
    106
    101
     
Thunder Snow:   106
    n/a
    n/a
     
West Coast:   104
    n/a
    116
     
Yoshida:   101
    96
    n/a
     
Bravazo:   91
    102
    100
     
Gunnevera:   98
    97
    n/a
     
Seeking the Soul:   99
    88
    100
     

Analysis:

Only five contenders – Accelerate, Axelrod, McKinzie, Mind Your Biscuits and West Coast – have earned at least a 109 BRIS Speed rating in the three final preps. Thunder Snow (two starts overseas) and Yoshida (one overseas) don’t have a full sample.

Top BRIS Speed numbers belong to West Coast, 116 for Pegasus World Cup (G1) runner-up three starts back; Accelerate, 114 Pacific Classic (G1) win two back; McKinzie, 112 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) win last out; Accelerate, 111 Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) win three back; Axlerod, 110 second Pennsylvania Derby last out; and Mind Your Biscuits, 109 Lukas Classic (G1) win last out.

Accelerate, Catholic Boy, City of Light, Pavel and West Coast (Dubai World Cup runner-up not applicable, 110 for Breeders’ Cup Classic third four starts back) have registered triple-digit Speed ratings exclusively.