Well Defined wins the In Reality division of the Florida Sire Stakes (c) Lauren King/Adam Coglianese Photography

A full cast of 14 has been assembled for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on the November 2 “Future Stars Friday” program at Churchill Downs and from a BRIS Speed rating perspective, there appears to be separation between the top performers and the rest of the field.

Let’s review the last three BRIS Speed ratings for eight Juvenile winners this decade.

JUVENILE WINNERS (2010-17)

Good Magic:

 

96

 

 

92

 

 

n/a

Classic Empire:

 

94

 

 

n/a

 

 

94

Nyquist:

 

96

 

 

94

 

 

102

Texas Red:

 

93

 

 

87

 

 

76

New Year’s Day:

 

87

 

 

84

 

 

n/a

Shanghai Bobby:

 

101

 

 

99

 

 

103

Hansen:

 

94

 

 

94

 

 

n/a

Uncle Mo:

 

102

 

 

110

 

 

n/a

Analysis

Seven-of-eight Juvenile winners recorded at least a 93 BRIS Speed rating in the final prep, with New Year’s Day (87 for last-out maiden win) the lone exception.

Every Juvenile winner this decade posted a BRIS Speed rating of at least 84 in their last two starts (Classic Empire lost the jockey at the start in his penultimate prep).

Three Juvenile winners – Uncle Mo, Shanghai Bobby and Nyquist – had register a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating.

2018 JUVENILE CONTENDERS

Code of Honor:

 

95

 

 

93

 

 

n/a

Complexity:

 

99

 

 

96

 

 

n/a

Dueling:

 

89

 

 

83

 

 

84

Game Winner:

 

97

 

 

97

 

 

92

Gunmetal Gray:

 

92

 

 

96

 

 

79

Knicks Go:

 

92

 

 

75

 

 

73

Mind Control:

 

92

 

 

84

 

 

94

Mr. Money:

 

90

 

 

72

 

 

83

Signalman:

 

86

 

 

84

 

 

80

Standard Deviation:

 

85

 

 

85

 

 

n/a

Tight Ten:

 

91

 

 

92

 

 

85

Topper T:

 

87

 

 

88

 

 

80

Trophy Chaser:

 

87

 

 

102

 

 

83

Well Defined:

 

103

 

 

101

 

 

76

Derby Date:

 

81

 

 

64

 

 

85

Analysis

Only four contenders – Code of Honor, Complexity, Game Winner and Well Defined – have met the last-out 93 BRIS Speed rating threshold. Seven pre-entrants failed to register a number in the 90s.

The top BRIS Speed ratings performances this year belong to Well Defined, 103 for In Reality division of Florida Stallion Series (FSS) win last out; Trophy Chaser, 102 for maiden win two back;  Well Defined, 101 for Affirmed division of FSS win two starts back; Complexity, 99 for Champagne (G1) win last out; Game Winner, 97 for American Pharoah (G1) win last out; Game Winner, 97 for Del Mar Futurity (G1) win two back; Complexity, 96 for maiden win two back; Gunmetal Gray, 96 for maiden win two back; and 95, Code of Honor for Champagne runner-up last out.