Fourteen three-year-olds will square off in the $1 million Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland and all need points, with none ranking among the top 20 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.  One of seven major prep races for the 145thKentucky Derby on May 4, most of the Blue Grass runners have plenty of room for improvement from a BRIS Speed rating perspective. Before we analyze the numbers for this year’s Blue Grass field, let’s take review the previous 10 winners. Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Florida Derby winners entering the race:

Horse BRIS Speed
Good Magic 98
105
Irap 93
86
Brody’s Cause 83
95
Carpe Diem 96
93
Dance With Fate 89
88
Java War 97
87
Dullahan 98
96
Brilliant Speed 91
92
Stately Victor 85
81
General Quarters 88
100
Analysis: Only two registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the last two starts, with Good Magic (105 two back) snapping an eight-year drought. Four brought declining BRIS Speed ratings into the race, with General Quarters (12-point) representing the biggest decrease followed by Good Magic (7-point). Four winners – Dance with Fate (89), General Quarters (88), Stately Victor (85) and Brody’s Cause (83) — failed to earn at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Dance with Fate and Stately Victor registered a pair of BRIS Speed ratings in the 80s. Four winners — Good Magic (98), Dullahan (98), Java War (97) and Carpe Diem (96) – earned a BRIS Speed rating of 95+ in the last start. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):
Horse BRIS Speed
Somelikeithotbrown 91
88
Vekoma 92
101
Signalman 87
95
Market King 88
85
Chess Chief 86
79
Dream Maker 85
91
Admire 89
95
Win Win Win 92
101
Sir Winston 90
96
Lucky Lee 87
100
So Alive 86
89
Parsimony 81
87
Moonster 86
80
Aquadini 93
84
Analysis: Aquadini tops the field with a 93 last-out BRIS Speed rating. Aquadini, Vekoma (92), Win Win Win (92), Somelikeithotbrown (91) and Sir Winston (90) are the only contestants to post at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Ten contestants bring declining BRIS Speed ratings into the Blue Grass. Vekoma (101), Win Win Win (101) and Lucky Lee (100) are the only runners to ever earn a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating. PHOTO: Vekoma wins the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct under jockey Manny Franco on November 4, 2018 © Adam Coglianese Photography/NYRA