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Arkansas Derby BRIS Speed Report

By James Scully

The $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park serves as the final of seven major prep races for the 145th Kentucky Derby on May 4, awarding points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the top four finishers, and a field of 11 is set for the 1 1/8-mile test.

Before we analyze the BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s Arkansas Derby runners, let’s take review the numbers for the previous 10 winners.

Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Arkansas Derby winners entering the race:

Horse BRIS Speed
Magnum Moon 100
90
Classic Empire 92
108
Creator 95
93
American Pharoah 99
99
Danza 87
96
Overanalyze 94
104
Bodemeister 102
101
Archarcharch 98
93
Line of David 93
87
Papa Clem 94
96

Analysis:

Every winner posted a 92 BRIS Speed rating or better over the last two starts.

Danza (87) is the only winner to earn a BRIS Speed rating lower than 90 in the last two preps.

Five brought increasing BRIS Speed ratings into the race.

Four registered at least one triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the last two starts.

Three winners showed a significant BRIS Speed rating decline in the previous start: Classic Empire (16-point drop), Overanalyze (10) and Danza (nine). Magnum Moon entered off a 10-point BRIS Speed rating increase.

Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):

Horse BRIS Speed
Improbable 97
100
Six Shooter 92
90
Omaha Beach 98
96
Tikhvin Flew 89
97
Laughing Fox 83
93
Gray Attempt 97
75
Galilean 94
92
Country House 95
93
One Flew South 82
85
Jersey Agenda 86
82
Long Range Toddy 97
91

Analysis:

Seven runners bring increasing BRIS Speed ratings into the race, including top contenders Omaha Beach (two-point) and Long Range Toddy (six).

Improbable is the only runner with a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating, registering a 100 figure two starts back. The morning-line favorite registered a solid 97 Speed rating last out.

A quartet of longshots — Six Shooter, Laughing Fox, One Flew South and Jersey Agenda – bring lower BRIS Speed ratings to the mix. Country House (93-95) and Galilean (92-94) must step up as well to challenge from a BRIS Speed rating perspective.

PHOTO: Improbable winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) two starts back © BENOIT PHOTO

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