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How to Bet the Mamzelle Stakes

By John Mucciolo

A baker’s dozen of sophomore fillies will travel five panels on the Churchill Downs lawn in Saturday’s $100,000 Mamzelle Stakes. Seven stakes winners are part of the field, which is led by three contestants from the barn of Wesley Ward.

IVA (#1) (12-1) – The first of the three from the Wesley Ward shedrow stopped early in the Beaumont Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last time but will appreciate the move to the turf. The Scat Daddy filly was a debut winner in her lone prior turf try, and she comes in with a bullet half-mile drill.

RAINTREE STARLET (#2) (20-1) – Dixie Belle Stakes victress has been outrun in her last pair, including a run on the lawn at Keeneland most recently. The Brian Williamson pupil has some class, however, and could add value to the gimmicks at a big price in her first turf test.

MORISSETTE (#3) (30-1) – Joe Sharp charge will add blinkers in advance of her turf debut. The dark bay filly has yet to prove capable of running with this kind and would be a surprise.

KIM K (#4) (20-1) – Barretts Debutante Stakes heroine makes her seasonal bow, which also marks her first run on the green. The $335,000 purchase is in an ambitious spot for her three-year-old debut for Peter Miller.

CHELSEA CLOISTERS (#5) (7-2) – Wesley Ward trainee has placed in five stakes races in succession, including a runner-up performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. The First Samurai filly figures to move forward and be a major player in here second time off the shelf.

SHESOMAJESTIC (#6) (20-1) – The chestnut has been first or second in each of her three races to date for Chris Hartman. The Kentucky-bred has some appeal making her first run on the weeds under Stewart Elliot.

CATHERINETHEGREAT (#7) (8-1) – Schuylerville Stakes (G3) princess was dusted in a pair of Grade 1 attempts to close out her 2018 season. The Uncaptured filly is training well, and she is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Katinka. Julien Leparoux rides the top-three contender.

CHANGE OF CONTROL (#8) (30-1) – Michelle Lovell trainee was third against starter allowance foes on the dirt most recently. The Fed Biz filly will need a huge step forward to impact the field in her turf unveiling.

ABYSSINIAN (#9) (3-1) – Morning-line choice from the Wesley Ward barn was a runaway winner in her first turf assignment, and she finished a creditable third to then unbeaten Bulletin at Keeneland last out. Fleet daughter of Cairo Prince might be the speed of the speed beneath Tyler Gaffalione.

MIDNIGHT FANTASY (#10) (8-1) – Cajun-bred is a multiple stakes vixen who adds blinkers coming off a lifetime best showing for Joe Sharp. The Midnight Lute filly is a wildcard on the sod, but she belongs on the list of major contenders.

QUEEN OF BERMUDA (#11) (6-1) – Group 3 star was a highly rated juvenile in Europe who rallied to be fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs in the fall. The Graham Motion charge failed to fire in the Mizdirection Stakes at Aqueduct in her sophomore debut, but she looms a big danger from off the pace with an expected move forward.

PLAY ON (#12) (9-2) – Country Day filly is a turf stakes winner with excellent early presence for Brad Cox. The Kentucky-bred will be forwardly placed as a contender beneath Shaun Bridgmohan.

OLD AND COSTLY (#13) (50-1) – Outsider was last at 50-1 odds in her lone start to date. The chestnut filly looks misplaced in the field.

ANALYSIS

The pace in the Mamzelle should be a hearty one, with Shesomajestic, Catherinethegreat, Abyssinian and Play On all gunning for the early edge. I think Abyssinian is the swiftest and will be the one to catch inside the final furlong.

Queen of Bermuda and Chelsea Cloisters looks like the duo to benefit most if a pace duel takes place.

WAGER

50-cent Superfecta 9 with 5,11 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 = $30

50-cent Superfecta 9 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 5,11 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 = $30

50-cent Superfecta 5,11 with 9 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 2,5,6,7,10,11,12 = $30

PHOTO: Shesomajestic breaks her maiden under jockey Ty Kennedy at Keeneland on October 24, 2018 (c) Coady Photography/Keeneland

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