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Using Optix Plot to handicap Parx Racing June 1, 2019

 

Using Optix Plot to Handicap Race 1 at Parx on Saturday, June 1

 

The Optix plot is one of the most powerful handicapping tools to come to market in recent years. It gives the user a snapshot of the projected race shape, using a proprietary formula that incorporates Brisnet.com data. Eclipse Award-winning handicapper John Doyle developed the Optix plot, which is part of a complete suite of information available at OptixEQ.com.

To help introduce TwinSpires.com players to Optix, Brisnet.com is offering the Parx Plot PPs for Saturday, June 1.

Let’s take a look at a potential wagering opportunity in the opener based on the plot. The discussion below is for Saturday at Parx only. To learn more about all Optix offers, CLICK HERE.

Race 1, Parx:

The light green “plot fit” on the top of the page suggests that the available data for this race is reliable, while the sun projects a somewhat contentious early pace. Therefore, we can move forward with confidence that, if all runners get out of the gate cleanly and run back to past performances, a horse from off the pace should at least get a fair shake. If the contention was a snowflake this could not be said.

A look at the Race 1 plot shows #6 Ami’s Artie as the speed of the race, but also #1 Fort Apache and #5 Slot likely to be involved up front. With Fort Apache drawn to the inside, it is possible his rider will be forced to send from the gate, which could lead to an early duel. Even if jockey Angel Rodriguez is able to rate off of the early pacesetter, it is unlikely the pace will be dawdling, given the running styles of these three contenders.

Slot is listed as the even-money favorite and could very well sit a perfect trip just off the early pacesetters, but at his projected price, he does not appear unbeatable based on this plot. Assuming the pace is somewhat contentious, #3 Sambook projects to be finishing well based on him being a large square in quadrant 2. The 6-year-old gelding has struggled to win races (one victory in 24 starts), but has hit the board seven times, including a win and a third at this distance. Expecting the son of Daaher to get to the wire first might be overly optimistic, but besting most of this group at his 10-1-morning line prices seems like solid risk/reward proposition.

Wagering strategy:

A more aggressive way to wager on this race would be keying Sambook for second and third in the exotics with the three horses likely to be ahead of him early on. A more conservative approach would be wagering on Sambook to Place and Show.

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