This is it; The Breeders Crown (BC) finals, Oct. 25 and Oct. 26 at Woodbine-Mohawk and we have coverage for bettors in our two blogs. The Breeders Crown Countdown (BCC) and this feature blog handle the championship finals.
The sport’s focus in on the BC but there is stakes action elsewhere. Due to the bulk of features, we will cover some only briefly. We begin the huge weekend on Thursday afternoon and we won’t let go until way after dark on Saturday.
There is all of that and our TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch (H2W) list. Check the H2W for numerous outside contenders that offer many winners and pump up exotics as list members finish in crucial exotic-ticket spots.
GIVE ME LIBERTY
Philly continues its Liberty Bell Series on Oct. 24 with sophomore-colt pacing and trotting editions worth $30,000 each.
Soph-colt pace (1) Skip to My Lou (2)Branquinho (3)Captain Malicious
Soph-colt trot (1) Klutzy (2) Summit In Sight (3) Final Claim
CIRCLE THE SULKIES
Hoosier hosts eight Circle City splits in the neighborhood of $32k each on Oct. 25.
Soph-filly trot (1) Nomo Volo (2) Aunt Rose
Soph-colt pace (1) Tellmeaboutit (2) Rockie Got Framed
Soph-filly pace (1) JK American Beauty (2) Lady Capulet
Soph-colt trot (1) Lindys Crazy Hall (2) Homer Hall
BREEDERS CROWN FINALS
Friday, Oct. 25
FROSH COLT TROT
Real Cool Sam has been so good that even when he lost, he won. In Kentucky, the closest any horse came to beating him all season was a Dead Heat. That was Big Oil, who worked so hard to simply match “Sam” that he had to retire for the rest of the season (my opinion).
So Sam returns face the ruins of his division, including the other byes racing in the final field. Now what? You do not need me or any other public handicapper to pick him to win. Anyone can see he is everyone’s top pick, the most-likely winner that is next year’s early Hambletonian champ.
What you do need is a possible upset or at the least dead-heat possibility, which is the only way we can address this final.
Last week, Rome Pays Off was marvelous avoiding the unpredictable events during the elim mile, staying far back early and closing very strongly. All in all it was a better mile than Third Shift, the colt that nosed him for second. Rome Pays Off will be a good investment, as money stacks up for the obvious Sam and even for Amigo Volo, who just made it into the final after joining the gait frolic that jumbled the mile.
FROSH FILLY TROT
Hypnotic AM remains impressive among the division members. Even though she lost her elim—her early move to the lead cost her a few steps—she cannot be dismissed as the major contender in the final.
Still, we will back Ramona Hill, one of our other contenders, for price and purpose. She is a beaten favorite, finishing third to Ms Savannah Belle and a wild 29-1 Wine Rack Hanover in an elim. Against the best of the two elims, Ramona Hill will offer more than 50 cents to the dollar and have far better chances than her odds will translate in the final.
FROSH COLT PACE
Over the course of the season we have backed several members of this division and been successful. Our choices have won and hit the board with great accuracy.
We were not the only eyes on Papi Rob Hanover before he broke Tall Dark Stranger’s streak in last week’s elim; those nabbing him as he improved helped drive his elim-win price down to 3-2.
What we like most about both of the top two is that Capt Midnight will be pushed back to a co-star and that should mean a better-than-fair price on the colt once the leader of this division. He may still be the best and if that is near true he could surprise those who abandoned him for a streak and a streak-buster.
FROSH FILLY PACE
What happened to Alicorn last week was evident. She went too fast too soon and that early duel found her short when New Year found a first-over ride easy to overcome as she passed tired gals.
Although we backed Lyons Sentinel when she was valued most, Alicorn’s race before the elim was so very impressive that it appeared she was the best even when up against her strongest foe.
Priceless got away from her field easily and was lazily chased winning her elim and beating the favorite, Reflect With Me who on her own could not beat Alicorn. Unfortunately, then, it appears Alicorn will control the final’s field, and mostly likely do so as a strong public choice.
As a key in an exacta, if you do not like Alicorn’s win price, teaming her with Looksgoodinaromper should inflate the return on investment.
BREEDERS CROWN FINALS
Saturday, Oct. 26
SOPH FILLY PACE
Looking for another crowning moment, Warrawee Ubeaut (again, what is a Ubeaut?) has little to fear from the nine trying to defeat her in this final. She does have a bit to worry about Tall Drink Hanover, since the elim fired a flare.
The quick, early duel provoked by “Tall” was a warning sign that, at 8-1, cost her the 2 lengths in which she lost and gave “Ubeaut” the edge. Given an even, easier trip, Tall may be able to turn the tables. Along with Beautyonthebeach’s participation at the wire, that may be the elements of a sterling exactor and triactor.
SOPH COLT PACE
From the moment Bettors Wish took the lead at three-quarters in the Art Rooney Final, we were convinced he was the best in the division. While the mainstream handicappers sprinkled rose pedals over Captain Crunch, we took the road “less traveled by”—and as Robert Frost wrote—“that has made all the difference.”
Race after race, Bettors Wish confirmed he was best. Even in his few defeats he raced against adversity those who had beaten him would never have been able to overcome. While Southwind Ozzi was zooming along, winning an anemic Adios and a powder-puff “Jug,” Bettors Wish rejected the strongest foes of the glamour-boy band in bigger and better races.
Bettors Wish can only be responsible for beating himself here, as he did when American Mercury and Best In Show were his downfalls.
SOPH FILLY TROT
Last week we made a mistake, mistakenly measuring Millies Possesion. All season we endorsed her and did not let loose after When Dovescry woke up. Our value, so we thought, rested with Asiago. She put in a good mile but had to put up with a brush too big to win, yet big enough to wipe out 6 lengths by race’s end.
Asiago will be our play again, as our first choice, Millies Possesion, scratched. According to sources, Millies Possesion “has a broken coffin bone in her left front hoof.” Even though expected to recover, trainer Campbell did not speculate on her future.
Asiago, who was 5-1 last week, should go off, at least, an inflated third or fourth choice. Since she cannot be dismissed against the other obvious fillies, When Dovescry and The Ice Dutchess. For us, then, it’s go with Asiago again.
SOPH COLT TROT
Another predicament arises in this final. The superlative returns to the track after resting on his bye and the only two colts to have beaten him this season eye him like a cat peers through a birdcage.
Yet, this is not Greenshoe versus Forbidden Trade, nor is it Greenshoe versus Marseille, because those two are not his toughest competitors in this division’s final.
For a good deal of the season, trainer Nancy Johansson has asked what may happen to the main figures in this division’s stakes “if the real Dont Letem shows up?”
In the elim last week, she received her answer. Don’t Letem (DL) was firing on all four cylinders, winning against, arguably, two of the three best colts, all trained by Marcus Melander.
Stop right there, though, because DL was creeping at the end, losing 2 lengths before crossing the wire. So, we must ask Nancy, “Did DL show up and win using all he ever had?”
That question is enough to give the race to one of Melander’s G-men. Certainly it is enough to set up a situation where Greenshoe races his best kind of mile and Gimpanzee trots his most productive route from behind.
A Melander triactor? The obvious order is Greenshoe to Gimpanzee/Green Manalishi S and crisscross (I do not like to box bets). The most valuable order puts Gimpanzee first and criss-crosses the others.
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.
10/26/19, Lucky Nadotrembley R2; Raylan Givens R6
10/25/19, Velocity Lana R9
10/26/19, +Cyclone Kiwi N R10
10/24/19, +Tuxedo R2; +Lonewolf Currier R7
10/25/19, +Golden Tricks R3; March Awareness R5
10/26/19, Ozone Blue Chip R7
10/25/19, I’vegotagirlcrush R13
10/25/19, +Winning American R13
10/28/19, +RJP R7; +Stirling Escort R12
10/24/19, +Shamderock R1; +Hasty Western R5; Stans Back Again R6
10/26/19, Love Forbidden R1; Yankee Moonshine R6; Bad Medicine R9; Get Your Armor R11
10/28/19, +Hilltop Ginger R4; Lancaster Park R14
10/25/19, On The Tab R1; +Ballerina Rosa R5
10/25/19, +Lous Endeavor R2; +Ideal Gemini R6; +Twice The Fool R7
10/26/19, +He Rocks The Moon R3; +Charmbo Blitz R3
10/25/19, +American Kronos R11
10/26/19, +Shivered R4
10/25/19, +Wartech R2
10/26/19, +Torrid Bromac N R2
10/27/19, +Cruising In Style R12
10/24/19, Dions Prayer R4; Sally De Vie R8
10/24/19, Pretty Image R9
10/25/19, +Ginger R5; +Warrawee Usain R10
10/24/19, +Wild West R1; Mufasa AS R2;
10/25/19, Rockin The Boys A R9; Bravo Tex N R10
10/28/19, +Reigning Deo R7