As a polar vortex sweeps east across the Great Plains it should get to Delaware just in time for the three-year-old Matron finals at Dover Downs and brush through New Jersey’s Meadowlands during the Three Diamonds elim.
Breeders Crown (BC) stars are aboard for the Dover stakes quartet and at the Meadowlands for the frosh stakes activity. Concentrated battles in these features will ensue, complemented by TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch (H2W) list and our first Power Plays races of the early post-stakes season. Check the H2W for promising contenders offering winners and on-the-board finishers helping to pump up exotics in crucial exotic-ticket spots.
Dover hosts all four of the Matron finals for three-year-olds on Thursday, Nov. 14. Since there are many BC bet-backs, obviously we must suspend the automatic wagers in any of the four containing more than a pair of them.
on the bill are the soph-colt trotters for $208k. Finally, Gimpanzee should be
the out-and-out favorite after his BC performance. With the absence of
Greenshoe and Green Manlishi S, there is no way to look around Marcus
Melander’s remaining glamour boy of the season. And, far be it from us to
abandon our consistently valuable wager for the tip-top trotter. Or is it? This
is not a fan club, after all; this is an investment.
As the favorite, we need to continue to get a better-than-fair price on Gimpanzee. Will that occur now or will the BC score be his best win offering to bettors? We ask two things here. First, Gimpanzee must be no less than 3-2 under these circumstances, because if he is lower and Goes Down Smooth’s odds go up smoother into double digits, we have to go for “Smooth” upset.
The $176k filly trot is next. It is necessary to pass Matrons if you do not bet against their huge favorites because of the long string of Matron favorites that disappoint bargain-hunting punters. In this division, since more than one contender is arguably able to win, we back Only Take Cash. His BC performance was excellent and he may be peaking while the crowd pays attention elsewhere.
The public has a problem here because there are solid arguments which of them will be worth more than there chances. We feel it is safe to say, though, that Only Take Cash will be an outsider, which will make Only Take Cash the best prospect to back.
The $165k filly pace will praise the chances of Warrawee Ubeaut, whose BC win shook the souls of her division community. Again, tough to defy her but it is a must if not passing. The odds on JK American Beauty should be higher than her chances because she is racing on all five cylinders now and a good trip could benefit her if even by a head or nose, beating “Ubeaut” without shaming her and at a price.
The glamour-boy pacers end the Matrons for 2019 and the seasons for many of them are also concluding. Here we take no prisoners, nor do we try to evaluate a best price for Bettor’s Wish. You may pass or key him the winner in exotic tickets using the highest closing odds of any others to partner the spots.
Meadows / R2—6
Friday, Nov. 15
Race 2 launches a 50-cent Pick 5 (with an inner Pick 4) on the afternoon program. Remember to consider the horses mentioned in the Pick-5 races in all of the exotics offered in those races. Check your race program for what exotic wagers are available. Here are our suggested contenders, with brief comments, in post position order:
Maximum Credit drops back into his best level where he has been dangerous. Hoosier Paco is a beaten favorite who was aggressive enough last time to beat the 8 hole.
Kolt Power goes for the second time after a claim, having made a good showing stepping up. Mississippi Rabbit races with the exact resume, just with a different new trainer.
Sometimesawinner races well off the pace and from post 8 he will be a valuable element in the final three at the wire.
Innocent Victim is in a perfect spot to hit the board hard. Cruiserwillwin changed barns from a tag and should not be hampered by the outside post.
Poacher N is a beaten favorite with a high-percentage rate in the money. Southwind Masimo is on the rebound after a hiatus and a good qualifier.
ONE TO FOUR
The Fall Freshman Final Four Grand Circuit stakes were to hold four eliminations on Nov. 16 at the Meadowlands but that was prior to declarations. Only 10 or fewer freshmen declared in three of the four stakes—the Governor’s Cup, Valley Victory, Goldsmith Maid—so eliminations became unnecessary. Those stakes move directly to finals.
Except for the Three Diamonds frosh-filly pace, where a dozen declared, requiring a single elimination on Nov. 16.
The Three Diamonds’ conditions call for byes offered to the leading money-winners. The connections of Lyons Sentinel and Looksgoodinaromper accepted byes into the final. The remaining 10 fillies race in a $20,000 elim. The top eight finishers in the official order of completing the mile, join those that accepted the bye.
Those finals will be raced on Saturday, Nov. 23 as part of a $2.8-million stakes card.
The elim field represents what is left after the byes and that is an even bunch. What strikes us is one of our choices from last week’s frosh-filly pace Matron at Dover—Nick Surick’s Hen Party. She finished third at 6-1 in that final, beating one of the bye fillies, Looksgoodinaromper, which was good, but her race at the Meadowlands on Nov. 2 is the key to our support here.
Hen Party almost beat Marloe Hanover in a Kindergarten final and did beat the race favorite by making a strong second move down the lane late. Her first move was a flash to the front early, getting strategic position, something that may serve her great again back at the Meadowlands. Hen Party is a daughter of Roll With Joe, a low-profile-high-percentage sire that produces very fair-priced winners.
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.
11/15/19, Lunar Credit R8; Alacrity R11
11/15/19, +Call Me Bentley R7; Usgeneral WA Mann R8
11/16/19, +Mystical Storm R6; +Custards Dungeon R8
11/14/19, This Or That R4; Starlight AS R6; True To Mach R7; +First Class Horse R11
11/14/19, Trente Deo R1; Thuban R5; +JJ Flynn R6; San Domino A R8; Sweet Rock R11
11/15/19, Massive Talent R1; Jimbelina R6
11/15/19, +Pecorino R13
11/16/19, Rootin Tootin R4
11/14/19, +Melanies Fran R3; Ideal Deal R5
11/18/19, +Simone R7
11/16/19, Chitty Bang Bang R2; Love Forbidden R11; Shes In For Life R15
11/16/19, Naturalle Muscle R1; Townline Momma R4; Isaacs Ideal R5
11/14/19, +Boots N Chains R8; Zagster R9
11/16/19, +March Awareness R5
11/14/19, Cherry Crown Jewel R1; Prince Aston R6; Full Speed Ahead R9; Ramblin Art R11
11/14/19, Sea Change N R3; Culinary Delight R6; Miss Irish Rose A R7
11/14/19, Sandy Barbielegacy R7
11/15/19, Scottish Light R1; Easton Ivy R5; Solid Queen R8
11/16/19, Sports Column R1; +Jacks Legend N R6