A trio of exciting stakes races for sophomores help highlight a huge day at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. I believe the favorite in each leg of the Pick-3 sequence has the potential to get upset, which can make for an excellent value play.
Here is my analysis:
Race 9 — Swale (G3)
A fantastic cast of eight will vie in the 7-furlong dash. Morning-line choice #4 Green Light Go (2-1) is a horse I am quite fond of, but he is no sure thing in a strong field. Jerkens pupil is using the Swale as a stepping stone to bigger races later in the spring, and the colt might be a bit short on Saturday.
#1 Mischievous Alex (7-2) moved up considerably with blinkers added most recently, and he looks like a must use to me. Sensational debut winner #2 Untitled (3-1), two-time stakes victor #5 Shivaree (6-1), and the talented #6 Necker Island (6-1) will also be included as legitimate contenders.
Race 10 — Dania Beach
Grassy event features a well-matched field of 12, but I will go just two deep in the one-mile contest, putting my faith in the Ortiz brothers. John Kimmel’s #9 Famished (6-1) is the top pick. Uncle Mo colt can break through with his first turf tally in this spot after running well behind Structor in the Pilgrim (G3), his lone grassy voyage to date. Famished shows seven turf drills in preparation of the Dania Beach, and Irad rides.
The Bill Mott-trained #3 Homeland (3-1) has run two excellent races on moisture-laden surfaces to kick off his career. I expect the American Pharoah colt to shows big acceleration in the lane over firm going while receiving Lasix for the initial time. Jose has the call.
Race 11 — Holy Bull (G2)
The feature on a big day of racing, the Kentucky Derby qualifier is led by odds-on choice #3 Tiz the Law (3-5) for Barclay Tagg. Grade 1 winner is all class, and he appears to be training well in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut. He is my top pick, but Tiz the Law will not be fully cranked for this assignment and could be a bit vulnerable at miniscule odds.
Chad Brown’s #1 Toledo (7-2), and recent maiden victor #7 Mayberry Deputy (15-1), make sense to me, and they will add value to the multi-race plays if either pulls off the upset.
Pick 3 Wager
- $1 Pick 3: 1,2,4,5,6 with 3,9 with 1,3,7 ($30)