In normal times, Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager coincides with major preps that help to clarify the picture a month ahead of the first Saturday in May. But in our abnormal time of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Derby has been transferred to Sept. 5. Hence this Pool 4 took place over a weekend with no preps, the uncertainty of to-be-determined points races, and more KDFW pools on the way.
The “All others” option, installed as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, remained the overall betting choice at 3-1 when wagering closed Sunday evening.
The most popular individual interests were Charlatan and Tiz the Law, each finishing at 5-1. Charlatan, 2-for-2 after an imperious two-turn allowance at Santa Anita, was bet down from his 8-1 morning line.
The latest sensation from the Bob Baffert barn, Charlatan attracted slightly more in the Win pool ($17,364) than Tiz the Law ($17,275). This marked the third straight KDFW Pool that Tiz the Law was pipped by a Baffert hotpot, after Nadal in Pool 2 and Authentic in Pool 3.
In Pool 4, Nadal and Authentic inched a bit higher from their morning lines to close at 9-1 and 10-1, respectively. Nadal, coming off a Rebel (G2) victory, had been pegged as the 6-1 joint individual choice on the morning line alongside Tiz the Law. Authentic, hero of the San Felipe (G2) in his latest, had started out at 8-1.
Maxfield saw his odds tumble from 20-1 when trade opened Friday to 9-1 by Sunday evening. Sidelined by injury in November, the unbeaten Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner had been in a race against time to make the Derby, until the postponement helped his prospects.
San Felipe runner-up Honor A. P. closed at 15-1, up a tad from his 12-1 morning line but the only other finishing below 20-1. Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Wells Bayou was trimmed from 30-1 to 28-1, while Fountain of Youth (G2) romper Ete Indien drifted from 20-1 to 29-1 in the wake of his Florida Derby third. Gouverneur Morris, fourth in the Florida Derby, was virtually steady with his 30-1 morning line portending his 31-1 close. The notable market mover was Lecomte (G3) scorer Enforceable, fifth in the Louisiana Derby last out but shortening from 50-1 to 33-1.
More KDFW pools are in the works, with dates over the summer to be announced. Likewise, contenders will have additional opportunities to score Derby points in the lead-up to the first Saturday in September. According to the press release recapping Pool 4:
“Churchill Downs officials have been working with other prominent partner tracks to add additional ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ races and determine the various paths to the Kentucky Derby starting gate that enable the horses in the best form to compete. An updated schedule of races will be announced in the coming weeks as separate discussions with state and local governments and all appropriate parties to determine the most suitable time to conduct those races continue.”
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4
|Horse Name||ML Odds||Final Odds||Gross Win Pool|
|19||Storm the Court||50-1||53-1||$2,177.40|
|22||Tiz the Law||6-1||5-1||$17,275.96|
|24||All Other 3-Year-Old Males||5-2||3-1||$26,788.25|