by Tim Holland
Editor’s Note: As of May 6, 2020 Tim Holland has delivered with 329 races, 76 winners (23%) and a profit of 14% on all picks, (with off-the-turf races not counting) and when looking at runners with odds of 5-1 or higher, increases to a profit of 33%. Tuesday’s picks did particularly well.
Trainer D’Angelo won with one of his last six runners returning from a layoff of 90+ days and saddles #8 Jeeker Joe (10-1), who has not been seen since finishing a close third here last August. Gelding has hit the board in 2-of-6 starts on turf and posted a sharp 5-furlong work in :59 3/5 on grass at Palm Meadows in March. Gelding can be on or near the early lead with Gaffalione taking the mount.
#3 Khozana (15-1) debuts for trainer Budhoo, who won with one of his last seven first-time starters. Filly has a good win early pedigree being by 19% first-out sire Khozan and out of a mare by Giant’s Causeway, whose offspring win 10% of their debuts. Filly may be ready for a good first outing with Juarez in the saddle.
With not a huge amount of early speed entered, #7 Nothings Free (6-1) may be able to take the early initiative. Dark bay has a record of 3-2-1-0 at this distance and was claimed by Richard Arnold in his latest when fading to an unplaced finish sprinting here last month. Arnold won with one of his last three runners first off the claim and daughter of Flat Out posted a sharp 3-furlong work in :35 2/5 five days ago.
#4 Dynadrive (6-1) has a record of 5-2-1-1 on turf and comes off a fading second-place finish on the main track in March. That was his first start since being claimed by Mike Maker, and the son of Temple City has been working forwardly for Maker, who wins at 21% the second start off the claim. Gelding can forwardly placed early with Rosario taking the mount.
Trainer Baxter wins with 27% of her runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and saddles #1 R Happy Ending (9-2), who has not been seen since finishing third after chasing fast fractions at this distance in a stakes at Tampa in February. Mare has a record of 8-3-3-1 on this turf and has been working well for Baxter, who has won with 20% of starters this meet. Bay can be on or near the early lead breaking from the rail under Jaramillo.
#5 Quiet Company (6-1) switches back to turf off a fading unplaced effort on the main track last month in her third outing after a long break. Daughter of 12% grass sire Temple City has hit the board once from two previous starts on grass, and trainer Hough has won with two of his last 10 runners making this surface change. 4-year-old can be in the mix from the start with Rosario up.
Tampa Bay Downs
Newcomer #5 Bellarific (5-1) has a decent win early pedigree being by 10% first out sire Bellamy Road and out of a mare by Mass Media, whose offspring also win 10% of their first outings. Filly has been working well for trainer Granitz who wins with 14% of his first-time starters. Dark bay appears ready to win at first asking under Gallardo.
Plenty of early speed in this turf sprint may help an off-the-pace runner such as #4 Regal Chant (6-1), who tries grass for the first time and who has not been seen since closing to win on the all-weather track at Presque Isle in October. Gray has a decent enough pedigree for turf and trainer Hamm wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Filly has won 5-of-10 career starts and rider Santos won with two of last five rides for the barn.
Maidens on grass in the finale include #6 Doubly Blessed (8-1), who made progress to finish third in her debut over a mile here in late-March. Trainer Thomas wins with a high 36% of his second time starters and son of Empire Maker is out of Grade 3 winner Via Vilaggio. $350K yearling purchase should relish the extra distance and can be along from off the pace with Centeno in the irons.