With Kentucky Derby Week, Saratoga, and Del Mar now in the rearview mirror, we now have less than two months to wait before the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland.
The action of the past week saw some stocks rise and some fall with respect to the Breeders’ Cup. Here’s our take on who’s hot and who’s not.
GAMINE might have disappointed as an odds-on choice in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1), but that just means she’s likely to target the 7-furlong Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) rather than try another two-turn race. The Oaks doesn’t in the least erase the memories of her Acorn (G1) or Test (G1), and a repeat of either performance puts her lengths ahead of many of the other leading contenders in the shorter race.
MONOMOY GIRL in two stakes appearances this summer has pretty much confirmed that she’s back to her pre-layoff form. Even after breaking awkwardly in the La Troienne (G1) last week, she never appeared in serious danger while keeping something in reserve. WIth stablemate Shedaresthedevil running a career best in upsetting the Oaks, the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) most likely goes through this mare.
TOM’S D’ETAT, last seen running a gallant third in the Whitney (G1) after a costly stumble at the start, did not race this past week and is not expected to prep again before the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). However, he still had a good week in the sense that the Classic continues to look as if it will be overflowing with speed that should benefit his versatile running style.
Indeed, trainer Bob Baffert’s power trio of Maximum Security, Improbable, and Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic figure to contribute greatly to any potential Classic pace, while recent Woodward H. (G1) winner Global Campaign really knows no other way to win and presumably will be handled accordingly.
He’s proven fresh, loves Keeneland, and now Tom’s d’Etat is staring at a potentially favorable race flow eight weeks from now.
If Monomoy Girl is hot, that leaves MIDNIGHT BISOU not looking so much at the moment. Not only has Monomoy Girl consistently had her number in the past, but Bisou’s upset loss to Vexatious in the Personal Ensign (G1) doesn’t look so forgivable in light of that rival’s disappointing fifth in the La Troienne. On paper, second was ripe for the taking with any semblance of a conventional performance, and Vexatious had no apparent excuse.
Midnight Bisou accomplished great things in Monomoy Girl’s absence last season and can’t be written off entirely. Perhaps our view will change after we see how she fares in next month’s Spinster (G1), but as racing is generally zero-sum, her hold on this division title is highly precarious.
BY MY STANDARDS earned his third graded win of the season last Friday when taking the Alysheba (G2). An honest, hard-knocking type anyone would love to own and campaign, By My Standards nonetheless appears as if he has a bit of a ceiling. Having earned a Brisnet Speed rating of only 99, he didn’t crack it in the Alysheba and this is the time of year when you really would want to see a more authoritative performance.
Although he remains an intriguing exotics threat for the Classic, By My Standards has yet to give off enough vibes as a serious win contender.