Thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks Day Late Pick 5

As this is being written, rain is forecast throughout Kentucky Oaks morning before tapering off in the afternoon. That doesn’t mean the quick-drying Churchill surface will be anywhere close to fast by post time for the Oaks, but at least there’s a chance of a track with lessening moisture late in the day.

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 that covers Race 9-13 looks like an intriguing sequence. Here’s how we’re playing it.

Race 9

From a back class perspective, the veteran #7 SOLID WAGER (5-2) will be tough to beat if he runs back to his pre-San Carlos (G2) form. Fourth, beaten a length, in the 2017 Churchill Downs (G2) in his last trip to Louisville. #11 TIZ MISCHIEF (20-1) also has a touch of back class and performs way better here than anywhere else. #15 SOUL STREIT (2-1) races close to his native Indiana for the first time. Lightly-raced four-year-old will be well backed with Bob Baffert in his corner.

Race 10 — Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2)

#6 WORLD OF TROUBLE (1-1) ran lights out here in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), only losing to Stormy Liberal. Figures again, though had a tougher time than usual winning a weak renewal of the Carter H. (G1). #8 UNDRAFTED (8-1) is the old man of this field at age nine, has placed in this race twice before, loves this course, and will get a pace to close in to.

Race 11 — Kentucky Oaks (G1)

Despite being my official second pick, I’ll take a stand against morning line favorite #4 Bellafina at a short price. #6 POSITIVE SPIRIT (30-1) might be a cut below these, but is proven at nine furlongs, has won over this track, can sit a nice trip behind what is expected to be a contested pace and, being a half to Always Dreaming, might be able to handle the mud if necessary. Drawing a line through her Rachel Alexandra (G2) and was on the lead by default in the Gazelle (G2), which isn’t her game. #2 CHOCOLATE KISSES (20-1) is another capable of benefiting from a quick tempo. Connections will reportedly allow her to make one late run, which she did successfully in the Honeybee (G3). She rated too close in the Ashland (G1). #10 CHAMPAGNE ANYONE (6-1) is a filly improving at the right time and has been training well.

Race 12

#8 COSMIC CODE (5-1) endured a case of seconditis over the winter at Fair Grounds, but did run eventual Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner Street Band to a nose in one of them. Overmatched in the Fantasy (G3) last time. #11 FREE COVER (5-1) likely better than her lone route attempt would suggest, and the speed wasn’t coming back to her last time at Keeneland.

Race 13

A couple first-time starters catch the eye. #4 HALLAWALLAH (5-1) is by Candy Ride and out of sprint champion Maryfield. Asmussen/Santana a typically dangerous combo. #2 CHOCOLATE SWIRL (20-1) might be overlooked. By 18% debut sire Twirling Candy, she’s a three-quarter sister to Ahh Chocolate, who won on debut going six furlongs and later became a multiple graded stakes winner.

Here’s the 50-cent ticket:

7,11,15 with 6,8 with 2,6,10 with 8,11 with 2,4 = $36

 

(c) NYRA/Viola Jasko/Adam Coglianese Photography

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Spot Plays for 2019 Kentucky Oaks Day

An excellent 13-race card will be hosted by Churchill Downs on Friday, led by the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1). With the expectation of a wet surface, I have tabbed a few long shot contenders who will move forward on a moisture-laden main strip.

RACE 3

BLAME THE FROG (#7) (12-1) broke her maiden at Churchill Downs last summer in the slop. The Ben Colebrook charge might be peaking third time off the layoff beneath John Velazquez.

RACE 7 – ALYSHEBA STAKES (G2)

Grade 3 winner INSTILLED REGARD (#6) (8-1) draws into a tough field with the turf-to-dirt move for Chad Brown. The Arch colt was a closing fourth in the 2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) over a sloppy, sealed oval, and he could be overlooked in the field.

RACE 11 – KENTUCKY OAKS (G1)

OUT FOR A SPIN (#1) (15-1), my top pick for the Oaks, is two-for-two on wet surfaces for trainer Dallas Stewart. The Ashland Stakes (G1) heroine could splash by them all with a good voyage under Irad Ortiz Jr.

RACE 12

BLUE EYED GIRL (#9) (15-1) is by Super Saver, a solid wet-track sire who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy oval. The Barbara Minshall trainee has early speed and room for improvement second time off the shelf under jockey Luis Saez.

RACE 13

Rockingham Ranch’s BARRACUDA (#13) (12-1) brought $170,000 as a two-year-old in training last spring and debuts in this spot for Peter Miller. The Graydar filly shows a bullet gate drill in preparation of her first outing, and the gray lass has a very good wet-track pedigree. The post is tough but Miller will have the sophomore ready.

CLUB CAR (#12) (15-1) is also an intriguing player in the finale with John Velazquez aboard. The Malibu Moon filly chased lone speed before tiring to third at Keeneland on debut for trainer Ben Colebrook. The Kentucky-bred will move up having one under her belt, and she should also thrive over wet going.

PHOTO: Churchill Downs (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

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Kentucky Oaks 145

Want to make the trainer of a horse in the Kentucky Derby think really hard?

by John Camardo and Pete Fornatale

Ask him if he’d rather get a root canal or draw the rail in the big race.

Take a deep dive into post position handicapping and analysis.

That’s maybe a slight exaggeration but not much of one. Since the 1990s at least, trainers have lamented drawing the rail as if it’s a built-in excuse to run a poor race. And a first look at the data over the past 28 years indicates why that is: the two inside gates are a collective 0 for 56 since 1991.

The theory goes that the cavalry charge into the first turn creates problems for the inside runners, causing them to potentially have to check or get buried down inside in uncomfortable spots. But it’s also possible that the poor performance of the inside gates is an aberration more than anything else. After all, this is the only two-turn race in America where trainers don’t want to be drawn inside, and it would seem that a horse with positional speed should be able to make his own trip from down there simply by getting out of the gate and getting position going forward. Let’s take a deeper look into the post-position data for the last 28 years:

Examining the above, we see that based on the odds they went off in the race, the inside post and second posts should have won at least 1 time each.  Extending that, the first post has run second once, and never run third.  The second post position has done slightly better at running in the money with 2 second place finishes, and four third place finishes.

The only horse under 4-1 in the bunch was Fly So Free back in ’91, and he got away from the gate just fine and ran a respectable – if disappointing fourth. The next lowest odds on the list belong to Crypto Star, who was fifth, and while connections complained about the draw at the time, it didn’t cause him noticeable trouble.

Lookin at Lucky was a shorter priced horse who broke from the first post position.  He went off at just over 6 to 1.  He was crunched toward the rail causing him to check by the horses breaking from the third and fourth post positions, those horses being Paddy O’Prado and Stately Victor.  Could the trouble at the beginning have cost this horse a win?  What we can say is that it caused him to check back early in the race, led him to be almost 20 lengths from the leader up the back stretch, and finally ended with him finishing up into 6th place.  Let’s say he had won.  That would’ve put the stat for the first post position as 1/28 and line it up just under the expected number of wins.  Something to think about.

There are also plenty of runners who’ve gotten away just fine from the inside and outrun their odds — Looking At Lee is a recent example.  The comment line on this horse reads “dream ins trip to 1/8” – and what a dream trip it was.  Always Dreaming was simply better on this day, and his being forwardly placed played well to his advantage.

For what it’s worth, I took a look at the comment / trouble lines that each horse has associated with it.  The first post position had “trouble” at the start in 7 of 28 trips which is just about the average rate that horses saw trouble across all posts.  However, the second post position saw trouble in 11 out of 28 trips which is tied for highest, second only to post position 9 (13 trouble comments early out of 28 starts, and is also winless).

(Note, in doing this analysis, I counted comment lines that included phrases such as ‘off slw’, ‘bang’, ‘bobble’, ‘bump’ and many others, to try to get an indication of how much trouble horses from posts encounter).  Least trouble came from posts 5, 10, 13, 16, 17 and 20.  These posts have combined for over half of the wins in the 28 years!

I’m not here today to tell you that the one hole is a good draw in the Derby. It could be the unusual configuration or because of the gate placement that the inside horse doesn’t have the benefit of the running rail for the first few strides.  However, I am here to point out that there are a few potentially legitimate excuses for why it is winless in the last 28 years.

Another post that appears to be deleterious to a horse’s chances looking at the raw data is the 14-hole. There might be a reason for this.

First, let’s consider the gate configuration.  Post 14 is on the end of the main starting gate, and an auxiliary starting gate is located just to the outside of it.  The auxiliary gate is angled slightly toward the rail, and this creates a scenario where it is possible the fourteen can be pinched, and forced to check back.  That is evident from the discussion above about trouble comments.  See this chart for a full look at trouble comments:

The fourteen post saw a significant number of early trouble comments and I have to think the positioning of that outside gate – if a horse ran straight from the aux gate he’d hit the rail before the first turn – is the reason why.  It’s interesting to note that all of the top three posts in terms of trouble frequency have 0 wins combined and it doesn’t feel like a pure coincidence. And if I had a horse in the Derby, I’d be at least as worried about drawing the 14 post as the 1.

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Final Kentucky Oaks works round-up: Notes and quotes from coast-to-coast

A total of 13 sophomore fillies put in their final major morning preparations over the past week in advance of Friday’s $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs. Grade 2 princess Positive Spirit previously drilled a bullet four panels in :47.20 at Keeneland on Sunday, April 21, the best of 33 works at the distance.

Two-time Grade 2 winner Serengeti Empress also impressed in her final tune-up, scorching five furlongs in a bullet :58.20 at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, April 23 for trainer Tom Amoss.

MONDAY, APRIL 29

At Churchill Downs, Grade 1 heroine Restless Rider breezed a half-mile in :49.60 in her final move for the Oaks. Trainer Kenny McPeek was “pleased” with how his consistently very good filly traveled, as she clocked fractions of :12, :23.80, :36.80 and going out in 1:03.20 for five-eighths.

Restless Rider, the co-second choice in the field, was second in the recent Ashland Stakes (G1) in her sophomore debut.

“This next race is going to be an improved race off that first race of the year,” McPeek said. “She’s ready to do that.”

SUNDAY, APRIL 28

Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) victress Champagne Anyone completed her major preparations for the race with a half-mile move in :48 at Churchill Downs. She established fractions of :12.40 and :24.60 before eventually galloping out in 1:00.80 for five furlongs.

The Ian Wilkes charge is the co-second choice on the morning line, and her latest drill left both trainer and jockey Chris Landeros in a positive mood.

“It was perfect,” Wilkes said. “She has had a good four weeks here and as long as I don’t mess anything up the next four days, we are fine.”

“Every time I get on this filly, she gives me more confidence I can win the Oaks,” Landeros said.

Fantasy Stakes (G3) winner Lady Apple traveled four furlongs on the Churchill main surface in :49.80 in advance of her biggest test to date. The Steve Asmussen trainee worked in solo fashion and went in :12.40, :25 and :37.20, eventually galloping out five furlongs in 1:04.80.

Also at Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) star Street Band posted :12.60, :24.40, :37, :48.40 and 1:00.20, going out in 1:13.60 for three-quarters of a mile under regular rider Sophie Doyle. The filly races for conditioner Larry Jones, who has saddled a trio of Kentucky Oaks winners since 2008.

Doyle had a very positive outlook following the final major breeze for Street Band.

“She moved well out there,” the 31-year-old rider said. “She gave me a great feel.”

SATURDAY, APRIL 27

Two Oaks contenders got in a final morning work in advance of the Friday feature. Honeybee Stakes (G3) queen Chocolate Kisses clocked four furlongs in :48 beneath Julien Leparoux. The Mark Casse pupil worked in company and posted splits of :12.40 and :24.40, with a five-furlong gallop out in 1:01.

“I thought she worked super,” Casse said. “Julien was aboard; Julien is going to ride her in the Oaks. He said ‘she loves this place.’”

The twice-raced Dunbar Road is currently on the also-eligible list waiting for a defection to draw into the Oaks field. The talented Chad Brown trainee stopped the timer in 1:01.60 for five-eighths. The Quality Road filly earned splits of :13, :25.20, :36.80 and :49.40, before galloping out six panels in 1:14.80.

“She breezed great, we worked her and everything went as planned,” Brown said. “Everything is perfect now all we can do is wait to see if there are any defections.”

FRIDAY, APRIL 26

Multiple Grade 1 star and Oaks favorite Bellafina posted her final drill in anticipation of Friday at Santa Anita Park. The daughter of Quality Road clocked five furlongs in 1:01 to the pleasure of conditioner Simon Callaghan.

“She came out of her work very well,” Callaghan noted. “We didn’t ask her to do too much; she’s been on a good path and we want to keep her going. We’re happy with where we are.”

Santa Anita Oaks (G1) runner-up Flor de la Mar scorched five furlongs from the gate in a bullet :59.80, the swiftest of the 46 morning moves at Santa Anita on Friday for trainer Bob Baffert.

“I mean we’re taking a shot. I think she’ll be better down the road,” Baffert said. “She’ll have to really step it up but the way she worked the other day (was impressive).”

At Churchill Downs, the speedy Motion Emotion registered a half-mile breeze in :49.80 over a surface labeled good. The Thomas Van Berg charge worked on her own and recorded fractions of :12.20 and :24.60, before eventually galloping out five furlongs in 1:03 under Tyler Baze.

“It was absolutely beautiful,” said Baze, who was aboard the Fantasy Stakes (G3) runner-up for the first time. “She made a favorable impression.”

Motion Emotion is expected to be part of a busy front end in the Oaks.

The Wayne Catalano-trained Liora also drilled beneath the Twin Spires and was credited with five furlongs in :59.60. The Candy Ride filly comes into the Oaks off consecutive runner-up finishes at Fair Grounds in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).

Blinkers were added to the filly for her latest start, and the equipment change has moved the hard-trying dark bay forward.

“She was way more focused today,” said Florent Geroux, who was aboard for her morning spin. “She puts way more into her works. The blinkers definitely helped because she has a tendency of wandering around a bit at the end. Not getting tired, but just losing her focus a bit.”

THURSDAY, APRIL 25

Ashland Stakes (G1) upsetter Out For a Spin put forth her final serious Oaks work over a muddy surface at Churchill Downs. The Hard Spun filly set splits of :12.20, :24.40 and :37 prior to completing her move in :49.80.

The drill pleased conditioner Dallas Stewart, who thought it was “perfect.” The Grade 1 heroine will receive a rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. on Friday.

Champion Jaywalk, who dominated the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on this course in the fall, is sending signals that she will be a filly to deal with in the Oaks. The daughter of Cross Traffic ran a creditable third in the recent Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland and Friday will mark her third start in 2019.

The lass recorded a bullet five furlongs on the Keeneland main surface in :59.20 and received praise from Tyler Servis, the son of conditioner John Servis.

“That was exactly what we wanted,” Tyler Servis stated. “She left the five-furlong marker like a bear. She left there running. I had her in :11 3/5 for the first eighth. She looked like she wanted to do it. She galloped out really well.”

At Gulfstream Park, Davona Dale Stakes (G2) stunner Jeltrin worked five furlongs out of the gate in 1:00.33. The bay daughter of Tapizar has shown steady improvement in 2019 and has could be a live Oaks longshot in his first voyage outside of the Sunshine State.

Conditioner Alexis Delgado said of her final morning move, “Perfect work; we’re ready to ship.”

PHOTO: Restless Rider posts her final major move on Monday, May 29, ahead of the 2019 Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

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Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not with Nicolle Neulist

We know who the favorites are going to be: Bellafina in the Oaks and Omaha Beach in the Derby. But maybe you don’t like to bet chalk or you’re working out who to play in exotics. Either way, you’re going to want to know who’s coming into the races hot and who is not.

Let’s see.

Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot

Roadster
Look deep inside yourself and ask, “Would Mike Smith have spurned Roadster for any other horse in the Derby but Omaha Beach?” I don’t think so. He was the Baffert “C” at age 2. At 3, he’s the Baffert “A” with a bullet. He is improving with distance. And sure, the Kentucky Derby is only Roadster’s fifth start — but this is Bob Baffert we’re talking about.

Maximum Security
The Jason Servis trainee is the only undefeated horse in the Derby. Whether it’s the class of his foes or the slow Florida Derby pace, everyone loves to question his talent. But he comes from a perennially live prep, and this year’s pace setup looks great for forwardly-placed horses.

Kentucky Derby: Who’s Not

Vekoma
He won the Blue Grass by open lengths but didn’t finish a mile and an eighth like he wants a mile and a quarter. He might become a dynamite one-turn miler, but the Blue Grass is about as good as he’ll have it in a longer route race.

Long Range Toddy
The colt was consistent in Arkansas and won the Rebel like a horse who could go longer than your usual Take Charge Indy baby. But in the Arkansas Derby, he looked like the distance and a prep season that hasn’t abated since August had caught up to him.

Kentucky Oaks: Who’s Hot

Street Band
Larry Jones’ up-and-comer Street Band has rounded into herself since switching to rider Sophie Doyle and stretching out. Jones seasoned her in the allowance ranks before she made her breakout in the Fair Grounds Oaks. That spur of the Oaks trail has been live in recent years.

Restless Rider
She rested through most of the prep season, then came back to run second in the Ashland. Now Ken McPeek has her ready to do her best: second off the lay, back on her favorite track and facing foes who have run full prep seasons.

Kentucky Oaks: Who’s Not

Jaywalk
Jaywalk has yet to match her dominant two-year-old form this year.  She may have needed the Gulfstream race, but the Ashland was a red flag. There’s even more pace in the Oaks than the Ashland, so for a horse who needs the lead against this class of foes, this doesn’t look like an optimal spot for her to bounce back.

Serengeti Empress
She either coasts by open lengths or comes home nowhere near the frame.  The task with her is deciding whether she’ll bring fire or ice. Like Jaywalk, her best efforts have come when she has been able to get a clear lead, but with so much other speed to battle with and a post draw in the parking lot, the forecast is looking wintry.

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2019 Kentucky Oaks Field with odds

145TH KENTUCKY OAKS

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY ODDS
1 Out for a Spin Dallas Stewart Irad Ortiz Jr. 15-1
2 Chocolate Kisses Mark Casse Julien Leparoux 20-1
3 Lady Apple Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana Jr. 20-1
4 Bellafina Simon Callaghan Flavien Prat 2-1
5 Flor de La Mar Bob Baffert Joel Rosario 20-1
6 Positive Spirit Rodolphe Brisset Manuel Franco 30-1
7 Jaywalk John Servis Javier Castellano 8-1
8 Motion Emotion Thomas Van Berg Mike Smith 15-1
9 Liora Wayne Catalano Channing Hill 20-1
10 Champagne Anyone Ian Wilkes Chris Landeros 6-1
11 Jeltrin Alesix Delgado Luis Saez 15-1
12 Street Band Larry Jones Sophie Doyle 15-1
13 Serengeti Empress Tom Amoss Jose Ortiz 8-1
14 Restless Rider Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr. 6-1
AE Dunbar Road Chad Brown 5-1
AE Point of Honor George Weaver 30-1
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2019 Kentucky Oaks preps selections for April 6

A huge day of racing for three-year-olds will take place on Saturday. A trio of vital Road to the Kentucky Derby points’ races will be contested with the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) leading the way.

While much of the focus will be on the boys, a trio of races on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks will be held, as well. I will take a look at each of the affairs for the ladies.

SANTA ANITA OAKS (G1)

Two-time Grade 1 queen Bellafina (#5) (2-5) is the clear one to beat in the five-horse field. The Simon Callaghan charge is five-for-seven lifetime with five graded victories, including a game tally in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G2) in her latest assignment.

The daughter of Quality Road gets a dream post outside of her four foes to give regular rider Flavien Prat options from the opening bell. She will be formidable with something close to her best performance.

Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of fillies in the field, and I think his lightly raced Flor de La Mar (#1) (5-1) is intriguing. The $500,000 daughter of Tiznow was a stylish winner on debut prior to an unplaced allowance run over a sloppy surface against allowance foes.

The Godolphin colorbearer is training in sharp fashion in advance of the Oaks. Also, the move to two turns is more than likely going to move the sophomore forward.

GAZELLE STAKES (G2)

Six fillies will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Aqueduct main surface in this Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep. Positive Spirit (#4) (5-2) has a lot going for her in this spot and she will be tough to upend with her best showing.

The Rodolphe Brisset trainee didn’t fire a lick when beaten 25 lengths in her seasonal debut in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds. However, the bay daughter of Pioneerof the Nile was a 10-length heroine of the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) on this surface in her 2018 finale. In addition, the Kentucky-bred looks like controlling speed in a field with no early pace.

ASHLAND STAKES (G1)

The 1 1/16-mile affair is easily the deepest of the trio of Oaks preps. Eight will go postward in a highly competitive race. I have a lot of respect for champion Jaywalk (#4) (8-5) and Grade 1 queen Restless Rider (#6) (5-2), who finished one-two in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). However, I view the Chad Brown-trained Feedback (#5) (3-1) as the “now” horse.

Feedback is unbeaten from two lifetime races, including a solid tally in the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) in her seasonal debut. According to her trainer, the filly was not fully fit for the race. “I’m happy and relieved,” Brown said, “because this horse I really didn’t have quite enough works into her where I really wanted to run her quite yet.”

The Forward Gal has come back strong, with third-place finisher Champagne Anyone since winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and fourth-placer Jeltrin upsetting the Davona Dale Stakes (G2).

PHOTO: Bellafina and jockey Flavien Prat win the Las Virgenes Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park on February 9, 2019 (c) Benoit Photo

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All Other 3-Year-Olds, Bellafina close as favorites in Kentucky Derby, Oaks Future Wagers

The only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW) ran concurrently with the third of four Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) pools from March 8-10, and each closed at 6 p.m. (ET) on Sunday.

The Mutuel Field, or “All Other 3-Year-Olds (#24),” ended up favored at 9-2 after opening Pool 3 of the KDFW at 4-1.

Game Winner (#7) and Improbable (#11) were the only other betting interests to close at single-digit odds. The duo, expected to make their sophomore debuts in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park on March 16, each ended up 6-1, though Improbable was slightly favored over his fellow Bob Baffert stablemate.

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER – POOL 3

 PROGRAM HORSE NAME  ML ODDS  FINAL ODDS PAYOUTS
1 Anothertwistafate 50-1 38-1 $78.80
2 Bourbon War 12-1 12-1 $27.80
3 Code of Honor 8-1 14-1 $31.60
4 Country House 50-1 29-1 $61.00
5 Dream Maker 50-1 56-1 $114.40
6 Galilean 50-1 22-1 $47.40
7 Game Winner 5-1 6-1 $14.20
8 Gunmetal Gray 30-1 43-1 $89.00
9 Harvey Wallbanger 30-1 33-1 $69.40
10 Hidden Scroll 12-1 11-1 $25.40
11 Improbable 8-1 6-1 $14.00
12 Instagrand 10-1 17-1 $36.40
13 Intrepid Heart 50-1 63-1 $129.80
14 Mind Control 30-1 55-1 $113.60
15 Mucho Gusto 20-1 27-1 $56.40
16 Roadster 15-1 16-1 $35.80
17 Signalman 30-1 38-1 $79.60
18 Spinoff 50-1 36-1 $74.40
19 Tax 30-1 59-1 $120.60
20 Vekoma 20-1 37-1 $76.40
21 War of Will 10-1 12-1 $27.00
22 Well Defined 50-1 216-1 $435.40
23 Win Win Win 50-1 34-1 $71.40
24 All Other 3-Year-Olds 4-1 9-2 $11.80

The KOFW saw Bellafina (#1) draw the most attention when wagering concluded. The multiple Grade 1-winning miss saw her morning-line price of 5-1 drop to 9-2 by pool close. The “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies (#24)” interest was bet down to 5-1 after opening at 8-1.

The only other final single-digit odds in the Oaks Future Wager came courtesy of champion Jaywalk (#10) and Grade 1 vixen Chasing Yesterday (#4). The former, winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), saw her 8-1 morning line drop to 7-1 while the latter, who is a half-sister to Triple Crown hero American Pharoah, remained opened and closed at 8-1.

The fourth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager is scheduled for April 5-7.

KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGER

 PROGRAM HORSE NAME  ML ODDS  FINAL ODDS PAYOUTS
1 Bellafina 5-1 9-2 $11.80
2 Brill 30-1 25-1 $53.00
3 Champagne Anyone 20-1 51-1 $105.60
4 Chasing Yesterday 8-1 8-1 $19.40
5 Dunbar Road 20-1 18-1 $38.80
6 Enaya Alrabb 15-1 12-1 $27.60
7 Eres Tu 30-1 83-1 $168.60
8 Feedback 20-1 20-1 $42.60
9 Graceful Princess 50-1 83-1 $168.20
10 Jaywalk 8-1 7-1 $17.20
11 Jeltrin 15-1 62-1 $127.00
12 Liora 15-1 65-1 $133.60
13 Marathon Queen 50-1 113-1 $229.40
14 Mother Mother 10-1 31-1 $65.40
15 Motion Emotion 50-1 24-1 $51.40
16 Orra Moor 50-1 43-1 $88.80
17 Point of Honor 30-1 11-1 $25.60
18 Power Gal 50-1 97-1 $196.20
19 Queen of Beas 50-1 49-1 $100.00
20 Restless Rider 8-1 13-1 $29.80
21 Serengeti Empress 10-1 11-1 $24.80
22 Tasting the Stars 50-1 137-1 $276.40
23 Violencia 50-1 56-1 $114.60
24 All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies 8-1 5-1 $12.00
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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3, Oaks Future Wager fields set

Pool 3 of the 2019 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) and this year’s only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW) will run concurrently beginning Friday at noon (EST). The Derby Future Wager will close at 6 p.m. (EDT) on Sunday, while the Oaks Future Wager runs that evening until 6:30 p.m.

Click here for FREE Brisnet Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Odds-maker Mike Battaglia installed “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (#24) as the early 4-1 choice in the field for the Derby Future Wager. The individual interests are led by reigning juvenile champion Game Winner (#7, 5-1), followed by Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) winner Improbable (#11, 8-1) and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Code of Honor (#3, 8-1).

Both Game Winner and Improbable are expected to race in Saturday’s San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. In addition to the San Felipe, other Road to the Kentucky Derby series preps on Saturday are the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park.

1. Anothertwistafate 50-1
2. Bourbon War 12-1
3. Code of Honor 8-1
4. Country House 50-1
5. Dream Maker 50-1
6. Galilean 50-1
7. Game Winner 5-1
8. Gunmetal Gray 30-1
9. Harvey Wallbanger 30-1
10. Hidden Scroll 12-1
11. Improbable 8-1
12. Instagrand 10-1
13. Intrepid Heart 50-1
14. Mind Control 30-1
15. Mucho Gusto 20-1
16. Roadster 15-1
17. Signalman 30-1
18. Spinoff 50-1
19. Tax 30-1
20. Vekoma 20-1
21. War of Will 10-1
22. Well Defined 50-1
23. Win Win Win 50-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds 4-1

In the Oaks future wager, five-time graded stakes winner Bellafina (#1) was made the 5-1 favorite with four betting interests as 8-1 co-second choices: Chasing Yesterday (#4), juvenile filly champion Jaywalk (#10), Restless Rider (#20) and “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (#24).

Click here for FREE Brisnet Past Performances for the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager.

There are four Road to the Kentucky Oaks series preps this weekend. The Busher at Aqueduct, Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park, and Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park will be held Saturday, while the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita will be run Sunday.

1. Bellafina 5-1
2. Brill 30-1
3. Champagne Anyone 20-1
4. Chasing Yesterday 8-1
5. Dunbar Road 20-1
6. Enaya Alrabb 15-1
7. Eres Tu 30-1
8. Feedback 20-1
9. Graceful Princess 50-1
10. Jaywalk 8-1
11. Jeltrin 15-1
12. Liora 15-1
13. Marathon Queen 50-1
14. Mother Mother 10-1
15. Motion Emotion 50-1
16. Orra Moor 50-1
17. Point of Honor 30-1
18. Power Gal 50-1
19. Queen of Beas 50-1
20. Restless Rider 8-1
21. Serengeti Empress 10-1
22. Tasting the Stars 50-1
23. Violencia 50-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies 8-1

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager feature $2 minimum Win and Exacta wagering and provide fans with opportunities to place bets on possible entrants at odds that could be far greater than those available on the day of the race. Fans will also be able to bet an Oaks/Derby Future Double this weekend.

Bets can be placed at Churchill Downs, TwinSpires.com and other online wagering outlets and satellite wagering centers across North America. There are no refunds in the future wagers. Should Churchill Downs officials determine during the duration of the three-day pool that one of the wagering interests has experienced an injury, illness or other circumstance that would prevent the horse from participating in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks, betting on the individual horse will be suspended immediately.

Additional information and real-time odds are available online at https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager.

After this weekend, the fourth and final Kentucky Derby future wager pool will be April 5-7.

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How to bet the 2019 Davona Dale Stakes

The Davona Dale Stakes (G2) will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the dirt. It is the seasonal debut for last year’s champion two-year-old filly JAYWALK (#1) (2-5) and it looks like she lays over this field. Winner of her last four starts, she has shown an ability to win on any dirt surface going any distance.

Once John Servis added Lasix in her second career start, she promptly broke her maiden going five furlongs on a muddy track. The gray miss came back and beat stakes foes at Delaware Park next out so Servis decided to go into the deep waters when he ran her in the Frizette Stakes (G1) at a mile at Belmont Park. It was a big step up in trip and class but Jaywalk handled it beautifully, drawing off to win by almost six lengths in time that was a tick faster than the juvenile males ran in the Champagne Stakes (G1) the day before.

Four weeks later, Servis sent her to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) going two turns. There were still many non-believers and she was dismissed at 55-10. Joel Rosario sent her from the gate and the race was essentially over as she cruised to an easy 5 1/2-length win, clinching the divisional championship.

Off since then, Jaywalk returns in this one-turn mile contest and a six-furlong workout at Palm Meadows in 1:12.40 indicates she’s ready.

The betting question in this year’s Davona Dale is who is going to run second? Jaywalk is 2-5 on the morning line so the real value is a stone-cold exacta.

I like BOLD SCRIPT (#6) (12-1) to fill out the exacta. She began her career at Woodbine and won going six furlongs on the turf. With that success on that surface, she was kept on it and was Grade 1-placed going this distance two races later. Last out, she switched to the Tapeta main track and beat Canadian-breds going 1 1/16 miles by over seven lengths.

Now, Bold Script makes her dirt debut against Grade 2 foes but it is her pedigree that intrigues. The gray filly is a daughter of the great dirt sprinter Speightstown out of a stakes-winning dam by Malibu Moon, so she has plenty of pedigree for the dirt. She has been training well on the dirt at Palm Meadows and gets Jose Ortiz to ride for the first time.

Not as fast as Jaywalk, Bold Script can stalk on the outside and, as long as Ortiz doesn’t do anything crazy, like try to win the race, she looks better than anyone else in here. At 12-1 on the morning line, a cold exacta of #1 with #6 in a seven runner field could pay as much as $16 since it would be odds-on choice over the fourth choice in the wagering.

Exacta
#1 with #6

PHOTO: Jaywalk is led into the winner’s circle after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Churchill Downs on November 2, 2018 (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

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