The special Kentucky Derby editions of Turf Talk features exclusive analysis with highly respected clocker Gary Young. Analysts Scott Shapiro and Ed DeRosa discuss with Gary how Kentucky Derby contenders look as they prepare for the First Saturday in May. Find the 2019 episodes all in one place, listed below!

May 1, 2019
Gary shares opinions on his first handicapping looks for the Kentucky Derby field. What do the works tell him about performance from Post Position and Odds applied?

April 30, 2019
Track time for several Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

April 29, 2019
Featuring the works of Long Range Toddy and more!

April 28, 2019
Featuring the works of Kentucky Derby contenders Tacitus, Country House, By My Standards and more!

April 27, 2019
Featuring the work of Kentucky Derby contender Omaha Beach.

TURF TALK video archive playlist

PHOTO: Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

Last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, JUSTIFY, who went on to sweep the Triple Crown, fell right in line with a Dosage Index of 3.00 and a foaling date of 3/28.

For years, most Derby winners had a Dosage Index below 4.00 as a ratio of speed to stamina in their first four generations of pedigree. This year’s Derby will be run on May 4, so having a foaling date before then means that he is a three-year-old chronologically and a following date after means that he is chronologically a two-year-old.

Here are the last 21 winners of the Kentucky Derby listed by year, foaling date and Dosage Index:

As you can see, seven of the 21 winners had Dosage Indexes above 4.00, so that angle seems to be losing relevance. MINE THAT BIRD is the only winner who was foaled in May and he also had a Dosage Index of 4.33. The lesson to be learned here is that if you are going to be an outlier in both categories, make sure you get a big price.

This year’s field of 21 with the highest Kentucky Derby eligibility points, in alphabetical order, are as follows:

Here, we have three of the top nine horses, and four overall, based on points with foaling dates in May and VEKOMA will still be a two-year-old when the Preakness Stakes (G1) is run on May 18. Four of the 21 contenders have a Dosage Index above 4.00, which is in line with recent pedigree profiles.

The top 21 contenders sorted by foal date:

Only one winner in the past 21 runnings of the Derby had a May foaling date but this year, we have four with VEKOMA and CODE OF HONOR being highly rated. Of the four contenders who have a high Dosage Index, at least IMPROBABLE and GRAY MAGICIAN were February foals.

So if a contender does not have enough stamina in the first four generations of their pedigree, an early foaling date might help them physically develop earlier than normal.

PHOTO: Justify wins the 144th Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

Live Oak’s homebred Win Win Win earned his way into the Kentucky Derby (G1) field with his third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and most recently, a runner-up performance in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. The Florida-bred has 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, which has him in 16th place on the Leaderboard.

Win Win Win is by the Japanese-bred champion sprinter Hat Trick, who was a multiple Group 1 winner and came out on top in the 2005 Hong Kong Mile (G1). Hat Trick has sired at least 34 stakes winners and two champions from nine crops to date. His top progeny have been most successful in South America, though he has had some success in North America, as well.

Hat Trick is by Horse of the Year Sunday Silence, winner of the 1989 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). As good as the son of Halo was during his racing days, the impact Sunday Silence has made in the Japanese breeding shed has been remarkable. He was Japan’s leading sire from 1995 -2007, and he has also been mightily successful as a sire of sires and as a broodmare sire.

The first dam of Win Win Win is the winning Smarty Jones mare Miss Smarty Pants, who counts herself a half-sister to Grade 3 queen Unbridled Humor. Smarty Jones, winner of the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, has not been as productive in the breeding shed as he was on the racetrack, however. The champion son of Elusive Quality is the broodmare sire of nine stakes winners to date, with overall earnings in excess of $5.9 million.

Win Win Win is an interesting sort in that his maternal and paternal grandsires found glory in each of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. The colt was full of run in the latter stages of the Bluegrass Stakes in his first attempt going 1 1/8 miles, and his female line has stamina influences through the likes of Unbridled, Caveat and Northern Jove.

The talented Kentucky Derby prospect has had trouble overcoming poor starts in a few races this campaign, which could be his undoing in a 20-horse field on May 4.

PHOTO: Win Win Win captures the Pasco Stakes under jockey Julien Pimentel at Tampa Bay Downs on January 19, 2019 (c) SV Photography

Wertheimer et Frere’s homebred Spinoff finished a close second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) to earn his spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4. The Todd Pletcher trainee was the last sophomore to gain a berth after garnering 40 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

Spinoff has run well in each of his four lifetime appearances. The chestnut owns two wins with a pair of placings, having run third in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) in his juvenile finale.

The improving contender was bred in the Bluegrass State and is by excellent sire Hard Spun, who finished runner-up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The son of Danzig has been a sire who has passed on brilliance and stamina to many of his offspring, and he accounts for at least 70 stakes winners from nine crops to have raced.

Spinoff’s first dam is the Gone West mare Zaftig, who was a dominant heroine of the 2008 Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. The gray concluded her six-race career with a third-place finish in the second running of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Zaftig counts herself as a half-sister to 2012 Mother Goose Stakes (G1) queen Zo Impressive, who was also second-best in that year’s Acorn and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). She, like Spinoff, is by Hard Spun.

The second dam of Spinoff also achieved Grade 1 glory. The Cozzene mare Zoftig bagged the 2000 Selene Stakes (G1) at Woodbine while also finishing second by a nose in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

Gone West has been among the leading global broodmare sires for years. His daughters have produced in excess of 140 stakes winners, with earnings eclipsing $83 million in total. They have produced Grade and Group 1 winners across the globe, with at least eight individual champions among them.

Spinoff has improved his BRIS Speed number in every lifetime performance (82-89-93-102), but he does have two major obstacles to overcome in my opinion. First, he has run just twice since August, which could leave him a bit short for the first leg of the Triple Crown. Secondly, his regular rider, John Velazquez, has opted to ride one of his foes for the Run for the Roses.

Nonetheless, Spinoff has the pedigree and, perhaps, the ability, to succeed running 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs on May 4.

PHOTO: Spinoff finishes second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds (c) Hodges Photography/Lou Hodges Jr.

Following Kellie Reilly’s brilliant piece on the strengths and weaknesses of the Dosage Index is like a hack comedian being asked to go on stage after Richard Pryor. Not easy.

Reilly went through the methodology and lack of updates of potential chef-de-race sires that have thrown the theory of the Dosage Index more into the world of speculation and not of science.

I use Dosage as a tool when handicapping the Kentucky Derby (G1). I have never been tied into it where it ruled my ultimate handicapping decision, but also could not ignore the years of success. The theory that a horse’s pedigree cannot have too much of a ratio of speed to stamina still seems valid to me; especially early in a horse’s three-year-old season. The points that Reilly raises about the decisions about how that speed and stamina are measured are concerning and it looks like the actual Dosage Index (DI) will soon go the way of phone booths and black-and-white televisions.

Part of the Dosage Index was applied to a contender with a DI below 4.0 also needed to have decent form as a two-year-old. This, coupled with the fact that it was over 130 years since a Kentucky Derby winner did not race as a two-year-old, made picking JUSTIFY difficult if you were a true believer but not if you watched his career debut.

The point is, the Thoroughbred is an evolving species and living by hard and fast rules misses the changes in training and pedigrees.

One horse that became the “Rohrschach Test” for the Dosage Index was STRIKE THE GOLD. ALYDAR was a top racehorse that went to stud in 1980 and had his first foals in 1981. His first crop of three-year-olds came along in 1984 and as quick a start as he had at stud, Strike the Gold was foaled in 1988 and was the sixth crop of three-year-olds that Alydar had sired, which was too soon to make the decision that he was a “chef-de-race” and if he was, in what category he would be placed?

So in 1991, here comes Strike the Gold, with a DI of 9.00, and was a toss if you were a strict adherent to the theory. But, and it is not as big a but as you might think, Alydar was eventually designated a Classic chef-de-race because of the continuing success of his offspring going long. The “Objection” sign went up in the minds of many who accused Dr. Steven Roman of force feeding the classification of Alydar to make Strike the Gold’s DI below 4.0.

The fact is, and what had me gravitate to the Dosage Theory in the first place, is that how a stallion performed on the racetrack was irrelevant and it was only after they showed that they had a measurable, predictable impact on the breed did they earn chef-de-race status. MR. PROSPECTOR won going six furlongs in 1:07 4/5 but he wound up being designated a Brilliant/Classic chef-de-race after he unexpectedly sired Kentucky Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner TANK’S PROSPECT, and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner CONQUISTADOR CIELO.

Had he been designated right off the track, the speedball might have become a Brilliant chef-de-race but after enough of his foals raced, he wound up showing that he could also sire Classic-type horses. It was not a projection or opinion that Mr. Prospector would become a Brilliant/Classic chef-de-race but empirical evidence based on results. I just wish that the same diligence that was applied back then would be applied to the sires that Reilly, rightfully, feels that should have been designated in the past few decades.

PHOTO: Justify wins the 2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) under Mike Smith (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

Wachtel Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Gary Barber’s Gray Magician punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby (G1) following a runner-up finish in the U.A.E. Derby (G2) at Meydan on March 30. The sophomore picked up 41 total points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and ranks 18th on the leaderboard.

Gray Magician was bred in Kentucky by Twin Creeks Farm, and he was an $18,000 RNA at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale. He is by the once-beaten Graydar, who earned his most notable victory in the 2013 Donn Handicap (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

From a trio of crops to have raced, that son of Unbridled’s Song is the sire of a trio of stakes winners including 2018 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo, who is a full brother to Gray Magician.

Gray Magician was produced from the stakes-winning Johannesburg mare Burg Berg, who is responsible for an unnamed two-year-old colt by Constitution, as well as an unnamed yearling filly by Street Boss. His second dam is stakes winner Snowberg, who placed in six graded races including three of the Grade 1 variety. Both of these mares did their best work at sprint and middle distances.

Johannesburg was an unbeaten juvenile who capped his spectacular two-year-old season in the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont Park. He has been solid at stud and as a broodmare sire as well, where his daughters have produced at least 36 stakes winners, four of whom were champions, with total earnings in excess of $26 million. The top domestic runner out of a Johannesburg mare is Grade 1 victor Collected, who was runner-up in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Gray Magician will enter the Run for the Roses as one of the longest shots in the field. He lacks a stakes win, his pedigree is geared for middle distances, and the class of the U.A.E. Derby field is in question.

In addition, the gray colt will have to overcome his lengthy round-trip voyage to Dubai and run a peak race at Churchill Downs to threaten a deep Kentucky Derby cast. A top performance at 1 1/4 miles from Gray Magician would be a big surprise to me.

PHOTO: Gray Magician at Meydan (c) Dubai Racing Club/Neville Hopwood

Mrs. J. V. Shields Jr., E. J. M. McFadden Jr. and LNJ Foxwoods’ Country House finished third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) most recently to earn his spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. The chestnut colt previously finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), as he has amassed 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Bill Mott, Country House was bred in the Bluegrass State by J. V. Shields Jr. and is by champion sire Lookin at Lucky, who finished sixth as the favorite in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. He has sired at least 42 stakes winners from six crops to date, notably champions Accelerate and Wow Cat.

Country House’s first dam is the winning War Chant mare Quake Lake, making him a half-brother to recent Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes heroine Mitchell Road. Quake Lake herself is a half-sister to Grade 3 victor and Canadian classic hero Breaking Lucky, who is also by Lookin at Lucky and was runner-up in the 2016 Clark Handicap (G1).

The excellent War Chant was a three-time graded winner during his sophomore season, capping his career with an ultra-impressive tally in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Churchill Downs. As a broodmare sire, daughters of War Chant have produced at least 19 stakes winners with overall earnings exceeding $18 million.

Country House has a pedigree that is slanted towards turf in my opinion, and his stakes-winning half-sister can attest to that. While he was unplaced in his debut on the lawn, the sophomore could eventually thrive on the green with his lineage and running style.

The contender has been consistent this spring, displaying a solid late kick in his four 2019 assignments. The robust three-year-old has a quartet of route races under him this season and he should be as fit as any runner in the Kentucky Derby field. He still has a lot of ground to make up on the top players in the cast, however, and he looks like a Triple Crown outsider to me at this stage of his development.

PHOTO: Country House readies for the 145th Kentucky Derby under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

The Road to the Kentucky Derby series of points races ended with a bang when OMAHA BEACH recorded a one-length victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.

Final works are all that remain as the contenders ready for the first Saturday in May at Chuchill Downs.

Stay tuned as it’s full speed ahead to the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby!

FREE Kentucky Derby PPs in points order courtesy of BRISnet.com!

KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS

• Click here for Kentucky Derby news
• Omaha Beach turns back Improbable, posts front-running win in Arkansas Derby
• Owendale pulls surprise over Anothertwistafate in Lexington
• History summons Tacitus after Wood Memorial win
• Vekoma dominant in Blue Grass; Out for a Spin stuns Ashland
• Master Fencer accepts Japan Road invitation to Kentucky Derby

KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS

• Click here for Kentucky Derby blogs
• Kentucky Derby Report: Omaha Beach continues to surge
• Get to know the 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders
• 2019 Kentucky Derby Study Materials
• Roadster bet down as favorite in final pool of 2019 Kentucky Derby Future Wager

KENTUCKY DERBY PEDIGREE PROFILES

• ROADSTER
• WAR OF WILL
• PLUS QUE PARFAIT
• OMAHA BEACH
• VEKOMA
• MAXIMUM SECURITY
• TACITUS
• HAIKAL
• SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN
• CODE OF HONOR
• WELL DEFINED
• MIND CONTROL
• HARVEY WALLBANGER
• MUCHO GUSTO
• TAX
• GUNMETAL GRAY
• LONG RANGE TODDY
• IMPROBABLE
• MAXIMUS MISCHIEF
• SIGNALMAN
• GAME WINNER
• COMPLEXITY
• ROYAL MARINE
• KNICKS GO
• CAIRO CAT

VIDEO

• ON POINTS: Kentucky Derby List Edition
• DUBAI WORLD CUP 2019: UAE Derby Race Replay – Plus Que Parfait
• ON POINT: Florida Derby 2019 Edition
• ON POINT: Louisiana Derby & Sunland Derby Recap Edition 2019
• ON POINT: Louisiana Derby Edition for March 19, 2019
• ON POINT: Rebel Recaps Edition for March 18, 2019
• TURF TALK: Rebel Stakes Double Division Day
• ON POINT: Weekly Race Preview for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
• ON POINTS: 2019 Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks
• BetVictor Patton Stakes March 6, 2019/European Road to the Kentucky Derby
• ON POINTS: 2019 Fountain of Youth Stakes Recap & Top 10 lists
• TURF TALK: 2019 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
• ON POINTS: Underwhelming Feb. 2 preps ahead of Future Wager 2
• ON POINTS: Kentucky Derby Discussion – Trio of preps begin February
• ON POINTS: Lecomte & Smarty Jones Kentucky Derby Discussion
• ON POINTS: Lecomte Stakes kicks off Fair Grounds’ Road to LA & KY Derbys
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – 1st Top 10s of 2019
• ON POINTS: Kentucky Derby Discussion – Sham Stakes preview & New Year recap
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 8 “KY Jockey Club & Remsen recaps”
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 7 “2018 Breeders’ Cup recap edition”
• TURF TALK: Breeders’ Cup Clocker Edition: The Juvenile-Classic double
• ON POINTS: Episode 6 “Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races”
• ON POINTS: Episode 5 “An early BC Juvenile Fillies-Kentucky Oaks look”
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 4 “Champagne & Futurity recap”
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 3 “Champagne & Futurity”
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 2 “Go West”
• ON POINTS: 2019 Kentucky Derby Discussion – Episode 1 “Cairo Cat’s Iroquois”
• Road to the Kentucky Derby: Iroquois Stakes 2018

ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

Arkansas Derby – Omaha Beach
Lexington – OWENDALE
Santa Anita Derby – ROADSTER
Blue Grass – VEKOMA
Wood Memorial – Tacitus
Florida Derby – MAXIMUM SECURITY
U.A.E. Derby – PLUS QUE PARFAIT
Sunland Derby – CUTTING HUMOR
Louisiana Derby – BY MY STANDARDS
Rebel (1st Division) – Long Range Toddy
Rebel (2nd Division) – OMAHA BEACH
Jeff Ruby Steaks – SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN
Gotham – HAIKAL
Tampa Bay Derby – TACITUS
Fountain of Youth – CODE OF HONOR
Risen Star – War of Will

Kentucky Derby Prep Season Races

Southwest – SUPER STEED
El Camino Real Derby – ANOTHERTWISTAFATE
Sam F. Davis – WELL DEFINED
Robert B. Lewis – MUCHO GUSTO
Holy Bull – HARVEY WALLBANGER
Withers – TAX
Smarty Jones – GRAY ATTEMPT
Lecomte – WAR OF WILL
Sham – GUNMETAL GRAY
Jerome – MIND CONTROL
Springboard Mile – LONG RANGE TODDY
Los Alamitos Futurity – IMPROBABLE
Remsen – MAXIMUS MISCHIEF
Kentucky Jockey Club – SIGNALMAN
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Game Winner
Breeders’ Futurity – KNICKS GO
Champagne – COMPLEXITY
American Pharoah – GAME WINNER
Iroquois – CAIRO CAT

European Road to the Kentucky Derby

Cardinal Condition Stakes – BYE BYE HONG KONG
Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes – JAHBATH
Patton Stakes – PLAYA DEL PUENTE
Vertem Futurity Trophy – MAGNA GRECIA
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere – ROYAL MARINE
Beresford – JAPAN
Royal Lodge – MOHAWK

Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby

Fukuyru Stakes – DER FLUG
Hyacinth Stakes – OVAL
Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun – NOVA LENDA
Cattleya Sho – MAKE HAPPY

PHOTO: Kentucky Derby Trophy (c) Coady Photography/Churchill Downs

Speedway Stable LLC’s Roadster rallied to take the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and earned 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1). The once-beaten colt will head to Churchill Downs as one of the favorites to capture the Run for the Roses.

Trained by Bob Baffert, the gray three-year-old was a stylish winner on debut at Del Mar in the summer, and he concluded his brief juvenile campaign with a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He closed swiftly to conquer allowance foes at Santa Anita Park in his three-year-old bow, which preceded his biggest win to date.

Roadster was bred in Kentucky by Stone Farm, and he was purchased by his current owners for $525,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

The Kentucky Derby (G1) contender is by 2009 Florida Derby (G1) hero Quality Road, who has sired at least 34 stakes winners to date. The rising stud is responsible for champions City of Light and Caledonia Road, as well as three-time Grade 1 heroine Bellafina, the current favorite for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on May 3.

Roadster’s first dam is the Silver Ghost mare Ghost Dancing, who capped a successful career with a victory in the Oakley Stakes at Colonial Downs. The speedy gray won five times with a pair of runner-up efforts from nine lifetime performances.

Ghost Dancing has also been productive at her new craft. Her first offspring resulted in the Grade 3-placed Moro Tap, and her third foal, Ascend, captured the 2017 Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. She has also produced an unnamed yearling colt by Candy Ride.

Silver Ghost has been solid and versatile as a broodmare sire. While he was a sprinter during his career and many of his top progeny have been one-turn types, the son of Mr. Prospector dons a fine catalog page. His dam, the Halo mare Misty Gallore, won five graded races while checking in second in the Beldame Stakes (G1) and Ruffian Handicap (G1). She is a half-sister to Irish champion Minstrella.

His daughters are responsible for at least 56 stakes winners, who have banked in excess of $47 million. 2000 Hopeful Stakes (G1) star Yonaguska; multiple graded stakes winner and sire Salute the Sarge; five-time Grade 3 victor Silverfoot; and 2015 Turf Classic Stakes (G1) winner Finnegans Wake are some of the top runners out of daughters of Silver Ghost.

Roadster has a lot of room for improvement with just four starts under his belt. The colt answered the nine-furlong question correctly in the Santa Anita Derby while appearing to have more left in the tank at the finish.

I don’t envision that his pedigree will hold him back from enduring 1 1/14 miles at Churchill Downs on May 4. And being under the care of Kentucky Derby savant Bob Baffert will undoubtedly aid his chances to peak on the big day. Roadster is an obvious Triple Crown contender to me.

© BENOIT PHOTO: Roadster (outside) and jockey Mike Smith overpower Game Winner (inside) under Joel Rosario to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6, 2019, at Santa Anita Park

Gary Barber’s War of Will earned 60 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series and sits in 12th place on the leaderboard in anticipation of his Run for the Roses on May 4. The Mark Casse trainee is a two-time graded stakes winner this campaign and he looks like an interesting longshot in his chase for Derby glory.

War of Will was Grade-1 placed on the lawn as a juvenile and concluded his creditable two-year-old season with a maiden win at Churchill Downs while making his dirt debut. The Kentucky-bred appreciated the surface change and rolled home to convincing wins in both the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds to start 2019.

The colt was bred in the Bluegrass State by Flaxman Holdings Ltd. and fetched a bid of $298,625 at the Arqana Breeze-Up Sale at Deauville from Justin Casse. He is by top global sire War Front, who from 10 crops to race is responsible for more than 80 stakes winners and eight individual champions. His progeny have been wildly successful both in the United States and abroad, performing at the highest level on any surface they race upon.

War Front is by the remarkable Danzig and out of the stakes-winning Rubiano mare Starry Dreamer. This makes him a half-brother to dual Grade 2 queen Teammate, multiple Grade 3 victor Ecclesiastic and stakes star Riviera Cocktail.

War of Will is out of the stakes-winning Sadler’s Wells mare Visions of Clarity. He is a half-brother to Group 1 winner Pathfork, as well as two-time stakes hero Tacticus (not to be confused with Wood Memorial [G2] star Tacitus).

Visions of Clarity counts herself as a half-sister to the brilliant Spinning World, who concluded his sensational career by conquering the 1997 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and was twice named a European champion. This outstanding female line traces back to foundation mare Best in Show, the 1982 Broodmare of the Year.

War of Will is bred to be great and he has looked the part on a few occasions during his sophomore season. The three-year-old bay had a major hiccup in the Louisiana Derby (G2) most recently when finishing ninth, though he has trained swiftly following his Fair Grounds flop and his oft-conservative conditioner wouldn’t point him towards Churchill Downs unless the colt was fit and healthy.

The Kentucky Derby contender has an abundance of class throughout his bloodlines and 1 1/4 miles should be within his scope if he is good enough.

PHOTO: War of Will wins the Risen Star Stakes (c) Holly M. Smith Photography