Kentucky Derby Roundup: Ted Noffey remains unbeaten

We’re 180 days out from the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, which means it’s time to resume our Kentucky Derby Roundup series on TwinSpires Edge.

Every Monday, catch up on the latest developments on the 2025-26 Road to the Kentucky Derby with our roundup of news and notes:

Ted Noffey caps unbeaten season with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile triumph.

All hail Ted Noffey, the soon-to-be champion two-year-old male of 2025. The gray colt completed an undefeated 4-for-4 season in Friday’s 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar, in the process securing his third Grade 1 win of the season.

Ted Noffey started as a heavy 4-5 favorite in the Juvenile and ran to his odds. Fresh off wins in the Hopeful (G1) and Breeders’ Futurity (G1), the Spendthrift Farm color-bearer assumed his customary position in second place, tracking and then pressing Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Brant through splits of :23.46, :46.99, and 1:10.82.

Turning for home, Ted Noffey appeared poised to dominate the Juvenile. That wasn’t quite the case, as the favorite idled once he struck the front, allowing Brant to stay in the hunt. But under the urging of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, Ted Noffey reengaged in the final furlong and held off a late bid from longshot Mr. A. P. to prevail by one length in 1:42.25.

For comparison, two-year-old fillies required 1:43.71 to complete the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) earlier in the afternoon.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is the most valuable Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier open to two-year-olds, awarding points on a 30-15-9-6-3 basis to the top five finishers. Ted Noffey now ranks clearly atop the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification leaderboard with 40 points in total. He seeks to become the fourth son of Into Mischief to win the Run for the Roses following Authentic (2020), Mandaloun (2021), and Sovereignty (2025).

Mr. A. P. debuts on the leaderboard in second place. Running back less than three weeks after breaking his maiden at Santa Anita, the unheralded colt raced in third position for much of the Juvenile before wearing down Brant to snag second place by half a length. The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has improved significantly since stretching out around two turns and heads into winter as a compelling Kentucky Derby contender.

Brant tried his best to stick with Ted Noffey down the homestretch, but weakened in the drive to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths. It’s possible sprints and miles will prove more suitable for Brant than route races, though, as a son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, his pedigree offers some potential for success running long.

Litmus Test raced in fourth place at every call of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and closed some ground late to finish only a neck behind Brant. This was a step forward from his distant third-place finish to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity, suggesting the son of 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist is worth following this winter.

Intrepido, stretch-running winner of the American Pharoah (G1), ran below his best in the Juvenile, trailing early before passing one rival to finish fifth by 10 lengths. The only runner he beat was Comport, winner of the Ellis Park Juvenile S. and runner-up by a head in the Iroquois (G3). Comport failed to show his typical early speed in the Breeders’ Cup and finished last by 13 3/4 lengths.

Given that Intrepido and Comport both ran below their best, it’s too soon to write them off as Road to the Kentucky Derby contenders. They may bounce back with stronger efforts in the future.

Ted Noffey is the individual favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 closed on Friday, shortly before the running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Unsurprisingly, Ted Noffey was the individual favorite at 10-1 odds, though he might have dropped a bit lower had bettors been able to factor his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The overall favorite, as usual, was the “All Other Colts and Geldings Foaled in 2023” option, which closed at 6-5.

Brant settled as the third choice at 14-1, beating out Breeders’ Futurity runner-up Blackout Time, who scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Impressive maiden winner Further Ado (21-1) and runaway Champagne (G1) winner Napoleon Solo (27-1) were the only others to close at less than 30-1. Mr. A. P. was overlooked at 55-1 and surely would have dropped lower after his Breeders’ Cup effort.

The complete list of betting interests, final odds, and prospective win payoffs from Pool 1 is as follows:

All Other Colts and Geldings Foaled in 2023 (6-5, $4.58)
Ted Noffey (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief, 10-1, $22.24)
Brant (Bob Baffert, Gun Runner, 14-1, $30.58)
Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time, 20-1, $43.74)
Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner, 21-1, $45.06)
Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map, 27-1, $57.20)
Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief, 34-1, $70.28)
Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bolt d’Oro, 34-1, $70.68)
Boyd (Bob Baffert, Violence, 39-1, $81.88)
Englishman (Cherie DeVaux, Maxfield, 40-1, $83.30)
Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner, 40-1, $83.78)
Ewing (Mark Casse, Knicks Go, 45-1, $92.48)
It’s Our Time (Tom Amoss, Not This Time, 46-1, $94.48)
Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief, 48-1, $98.36)
Dr. Kapur (Saffie Joseph Jr., McKinzie, 52-1, $107.72)
Mr. A. P. (Vladimir Cerin, American Pharoah, 55-1, $113.34)
Blacksmith (Bob Baffert, Liam’s Map, 57-1, $116.30)
Talkin (Danny Gargan, Good Magic, 57-1, $117.40)
White Tiger (Brad Cox, Constitution, 59-1, $120.02)
Desert Gate (Bob Baffert, Omaha Beach, 59-1, $120.82)
Confessional (Brad Cox, Essential Quality, 63-1, $129.26)
Courting (Todd Pletcher, Curlin, 65-1, $133.64)
Rancho Santa Fe (Brad Cox, Tapit, 70-1, $143.10)
Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief, 76-1, $155.60)
Universe (Kenny McPeek, Global Campaign, 77-1, $156.84)
Golden Tornado (Danny Gargan, McKinzie, 78-1, $159.48)
Spice Runner (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner, 87-1, $176.76)
Kristofferson (Bob Baffert, Nyquist, 93-1, $188.44)
Comport (Eddie Kenneally, Collected, 94-1, $191.48)
Provenance (98-1, $198.06)
All Fillies Foaled in 2023 (99-1, $201.94)
Outfielder (109-1, $220.58)
Soldier N Diplomat (117-1, $236.44)
Local Knowledge (120-1, $243.50)
Gallivant (134-1, $270.18)
Litmus Test (141-1, $285.84)
Stradale (145-1, $293.28)
Infiltrate (148-1, $298.08)
Civil Liberty (155-1, $312.66)
Oscar’s Hope (188-1, $378.70)

Florida campaign in the cards for Ted Noffey

After the Breeders’ Cup, trainer Todd Pletcher indicated Ted Noffey will spend the winter at Palm Beach Downs in Florida.

“He will ship to our headquarters at Palm Beach Downs, and I will talk with the Spendthrift crew,” Pletcher said. “I would think most likely that we would be pointing in the Florida Derby (G1) direction with the prep race before that. We will get him back to our winter base and go from there.”

The Florida Derby is a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers. It’s scheduled for March 28 at Gulfstream Park. Local preps for the Florida Derby include the Jan. 31 Holy Bull (G3) and the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth (G2).

Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard top five

1. Ted Noffey (40 points)
2. Mr. A. P. (15 points)
3. Intrepido (13 points)
4. Spice Runner (11 points)
5. Napoleon Solo (10 points)

European-Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby top five

1. Hawk Mountain (20 points)
2. Puerto Rico (10 points)
3. Bow Echo (10 points)
4. Action (8 points)
5. Nighttime (5 points)