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Risen Star Stakes Betting
The Risen Star Stakes (G2) is a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds in mid-February and the first Championship Series qualifier offering 50 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The race currently has a purse of $400,000, and winner secures a spot in the starting gate to the Kentucky Derby. The race also serves a major prep to the $1 million Louisiana Derby in March.
In the last five years, horses running off the pace mid-pack or way back have won the Risen Star. The previous three winners were pressing the pace and up front, so various styles have had success and you want to identify the types of horses and styles entered for the race. A handful of the runners from the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January will run in the Risen Star, and some from the Holy Bull at Gulfstream along with a few entering off allowance races. So pay attention to those races, the pace and how horses finished as it’s just a little shorter distance in the Lecomte than the Risen Star.
Many quality runners and winners of the Risen Star have gone on to Triple Crown success, including since 2012. The Fair Grounds is a deeper track, and four of the last nine winners of the Risen Star had run in a race at the Fair Grounds prior to the Risen Star. Only four of the last 16 Risen Star winners won the race in their 3-year-old debut. One of them was Gun Runner in 2016, who was the 2017 Horse of the Year and matured to be a top older horse.
Girvin was the 2017 Risen Star winner in just his 3rd career start. Like him, it helps to have run a race over the Fair Grounds track previously, as it’s a little deeper than other tracks.
Only one favorite has won the Risen Star since 2010, so value can be found in the race along with long shots, as a huge won took the 2013 Risen Star when I’ve Struck a Nerve scored late from the clouds at 135-1 and returned $272.40 on a $2 win wager.
Risen Star Payout History
|2014||Intense Holiday||5-1||$12.00||1:43.86||Closer, late run||3rd|
|2013||I’ve Struck a Nerve||135-1||$272.40||1:44.52||Closer, last, late||5th|
|2011||Mucho Macho Man||7-2||$9.20||1:43.98||Pressing||3rd|
Prep Race Runners vs Kentucky Derby Starts
Derby Winners from Risen Star: 1
KD Year, Horse, Prep, Trainer
2002, War Emblem, 6th, Bob Baffert
|Risen Star, Fair Grounds (48-1-3-3)||Finishes|
|2014-II||Vicar’s in Trouble||3rd||19th|
|2011-II||Mucho Macho Man||1st||3rd|
|2011-II||Pants On Fire||6th||9th|
|2009-III||Nowhere to Hide||4th||17th|
Above table updated through 2017