Risen Star Stakes Betting | Race Profile

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Risen Star Stakes Betting

The Risen Star Stakes (G2) is a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds in mid-February and the first Championship Series qualifier offering 50 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The race currently has a purse of $400,000, and winner secures a spot in the starting gate to the Kentucky Derby. The race also serves a major prep to the $1 million Louisiana Derby in March.

In the last five years, horses running off the pace mid-pack or way back have won the Risen Star. The previous three winners were pressing the pace and up front, so various styles have had success and you want to identify the types of horses and styles entered for the race. A handful of the runners from the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January will run in the Risen Star, and some from the Holy Bull at Gulfstream along with a few entering off allowance races. So pay attention to those races, the pace and how horses finished as it’s just a little shorter distance in the Lecomte than the Risen Star.

Many quality runners and winners of the Risen Star have gone on to Triple Crown success, including since 2012. The Fair Grounds is a deeper track, and four of the last nine winners of the Risen Star had run in a race at the Fair Grounds prior to the Risen Star. Only four of the last 16 Risen Star winners won the race in their 3-year-old debut. One of them was Gun Runner in 2016, who was the 2017 Horse of the Year and matured to be a top older horse.   

Girvin was the 2017 Risen Star winner in just his 3rd career start. Like him, it helps to have run a race over the Fair Grounds track previously, as it’s a little deeper than other tracks.

Only one favorite has won the Risen Star since 2010, so value can be found in the race along with long shots, as a huge won took the 2013 Risen Star when I’ve Struck a Nerve scored late from the clouds at 135-1 and returned $272.40 on a $2 win wager.

Risen Star Payout History

Year

Winner

Odds

Payout

Time

Style

Favorite

2018 Bravazo 21-1 $44.00 1:42.95 Pressing 3rd

2017

Girvin

8-1

$18.20

1:43.08

Mid-pack

5th

2016

Gun Runner

5-1

$12.20

1:43.94

Mid-pack

10th

2015

International Star

7-2

$9.60

1:43.82

Mid-pack

5th

2014

Intense Holiday

5-1

$12.00

1:43.86

Closer, late run

3rd

2013

I’ve Struck a Nerve

135-1

$272.40

1:44.52

Closer, last, late

5th

2012

El Padrino

4-5

$3.60

1:42.96

Stalking

1st

2011

Mucho Macho Man

7-2

$9.20

1:43.98

Pressing

3rd

2010

Discreetly Mine

5-2

$7.00

1:44.88

Front

4th

 

Prep Race Runners vs Kentucky Derby Starts

Derby Winners from Risen Star: 1
KD Year, Horse, Prep, Trainer
2002, War Emblem, 6th, Bob Baffert

Risen Star, Fair Grounds (48-1-3-3)   Finishes  
Year (Gr.) Horse Prep Derby
2016-II Gun Runner 1st 3rd
2016-II Mo Tom 3rd 8th
2016-II Tom’s Ready 7th 12th
2015-II Keen Ice 3rd 7th
2015-II War Story 2nd 16th
2014-II Commanding Curve 6th 2nd
2014-II Intense Holiday 1st 12th
2014-II Vicar’s in Trouble 3rd 19th
2013-II Golden Soul 6th 2nd
2013-II Normandy Invasion 5th 4th
2013-II Mylute 7th 5th
2013-II Oxbow 4th 6th
2013-II Palace Malice 3rd 12th
2012-II El Padrino 1st 13th
2012-II Optimizer 9th 11th
2011-II Mucho Macho Man 1st 3rd
2011-II Santiva 2nd 6th
2011-II Decisive Moment 5th 14th
2011-II Pants On Fire 6th 9th
2010-II Discreetly Mine 1st 13th
2009-III Friesan Fire 1st 18th
2009-III Nowhere to Hide 4th 17th
       

Above table updated throug 2017

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