Risen Star Stakes Betting | Race Profile

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Risen Star Stakes Betting

The Risen Star Stakes (G2) is a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds in mid-February and the first Championship Series qualifier offering 50 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The race currently has a purse of $400,000, and winner secures a spot in the starting gate to the Kentucky Derby. The race also serves a major prep to the $1 million Louisiana Derby in March.

In the last five years, horses running off the pace mid-pack or way back have won the Risen Star. The previous three winners were pressing the pace and up front, so various styles have had success and you want to identify the types of horses and styles entered for the race. A handful of the runners from the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January will run in the Risen Star, and some from the Holy Bull at Gulfstream along with a few entering off allowance races. So pay attention to those races, the pace and how horses finished as it’s just a little shorter distance in the Lecomte than the Risen Star.

Many quality runners and winners of the Risen Star have gone on to Triple Crown success, including since 2012. The Fair Grounds is a deeper track, and four of the last nine winners of the Risen Star had run in a race at the Fair Grounds prior to the Risen Star. Only four of the last 16 Risen Star winners won the race in their 3-year-old debut. One of them was Gun Runner in 2016, who was the 2017 Horse of the Year and matured to be a top older horse.   

Girvin was the 2017 Risen Star winner in just his 3rd career start. Like him, it helps to have run a race over the Fair Grounds track previously, as it’s a little deeper than other tracks.

Only one favorite has won the Risen Star since 2010, so value can be found in the race along with long shots, as a huge won took the 2013 Risen Star when I’ve Struck a Nerve scored late from the clouds at 135-1 and returned $272.40 on a $2 win wager.

Risen Star Payout History

2016Gun Runner5-1$12.201:43.94Mid-pack10th
2015International Star7-2$9.601:43.82Mid-pack5th
2014Intense Holiday5-1$12.001:43.86Closer, late run3rd
2013I’ve Struck a Nerve135-1$272.401:44.52Closer, last, late5th
2012El Padrino4-5$3.601:42.96Stalking1st
2011Mucho Macho Man7-2$9.201:43.98Pressing3rd
2010Discreetly Mine5-2$7.001:44.88Front4th

Prep Race Runners vs Kentucky Derby Starts

Derby Winners from Risen Star: 1
KD Year, Horse, Prep, Trainer
2002, War Emblem, 6th, Bob Baffert

Risen Star, Fair Grounds (48-1-3-3) Finishes 
Year (Gr.)HorsePrepDerby
2016-IIGun Runner1st3rd
2016-IIMo Tom3rd8th
2016-IITom’s Ready7th12th
2015-IIKeen Ice3rd7th
2015-IIWar Story2nd16th
2014-IICommanding Curve6th2nd
2014-IIIntense Holiday1st12th
2014-IIVicar’s in Trouble3rd19th
2013-IIGolden Soul6th2nd
2013-IINormandy Invasion5th4th
2013-IIPalace Malice3rd12th
2012-IIEl Padrino1st13th
2011-IIMucho Macho Man1st3rd
2011-IIDecisive Moment5th14th
2011-IIPants On Fire6th9th
2010-IIDiscreetly Mine1st13th
2009-IIIFriesan Fire1st18th
2009-IIINowhere to Hide4th17th

Above table updated through 2017