Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview for November 5, 2016

by Tim Quek

Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview

The 2016 Breeders' Cup will continue on Saturday, November 5th after a full evening of racing Friday. The marquee event of the program will be the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), while eight additional events will entertain racing fans at Santa Anita Park and around the world. The full day will be featured on NBCSN with NBC broadcasting the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday night.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (3:05pm EST)
1 1/16th Miles — 2 Year Old Fillies — $2 Million

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies may end up being one of two scenarios according to recent results. Either a 30/1 longshot wins the race, which was the case in 2013 and 2014, or the favorite dusts the field. The winner tends toanoint herself as the next filly to watch. Beholder did just that in 2012 and did Songbird in 2015.

The favorite is Noted and Quoted who was a surprise winner at the Chandelier Stakes in which she beat highly touted fillies Champagne Room and American Cleopatra. Her 9/2 odds are by no means rock solid.

A pair of horses have been entered at 6/1 and both seem like the best bets overall. Union Strike won the Del Mar Debutante in her stakes debut. She shares the same odds as Sweet Loretta, a fan favorite and perhaps the highest rated horse in the Juvenile Fillies.

Seven of 12 horses in the field will be entering off of wins causing a feeling of the race being ‘wide open.' Juvenile races tend to have a less sense of certainty.Of course, if you also like the trend of 30/1 longshots, Colorful Charades is here to provide you with the flier play.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (4:43pm EST)
1 ¼ Mile Turf — 3+ Year Old Fillies & Mares — $2 Million

Very few races are as hard to call as the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The racefeatures a handful of sensational talents such as Lady Eli, the 5/2 favorite. Betting against her is risky, and her 7-1-0 record in 8 starts speaks for itself. Her lone loss was after a long rehab process following injury, but her decisive win a month ago in the Flower Bowlhas proven she is in the top form players are familiar with.

Temptation runs rampant in this race with some of the long shots. Sea Calisi is a staggering 8/1 outside shot after finishing 3rd at the Flower Bowl Invitational behind Lady Eli. She is 2-1-1 in four starts this season and has consistently shown promise.

Catch A Glimpse has gone from a likely favorite to a 12/1 longshot after suffering two defeats to Time and Motion in the Lake Placid and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. She is still worth mentioning, with an overall record of 8-1-0 in 11 starts, but her recent performances certainly leave her wanting.

The runner-up from the Flower Bowl was Sentiero Italia who is also posting 12/1 odds and was such a distant second to Lady Eli that it's hard to imagine her closing the gap in this race.

TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (4:21pm EST)
6 Furlongs — 3+ Year Olds — $1.5 Million

Due to the distance of the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), the race has always been prone to upsets. However this year's renewal stands as a four-horse race. That's not great news for Masochistic, who is coming off a win at the Pat O'Brien Handicap and stands as the 2/1 top choice in the Sprint. With two victories this season, he hasn't paced faster than his rivals in this race, but is getting the faith of the oddsmakers.

A.P. Indian has long seemed like the best sprinter in the country with Runhappy sidelined for much of the year, but Runhappy then shifted to the Dirt Mile. Trainer Arnaud Delacour has his six-year-old star running at peak performance with an undefeated streak in six startsfor 2016. A.P. Indian has every right to stand as your top choice for the race.

Lord Nelson has had an outstanding 2016 campaign, going undefeated with wins in the Triple Bend, Bing Crosby Stakes and the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The fact that he is familiar with Santa Anita – his home track – is a reason he's positioned slightly higher than his chief Sprint rival.

Not to be outdone, Drefong comes in at 7/2 and is the biggest dark horse amongst the favorites. His win at the King's Bishop was decisive, albeit a shade slower than his counterparts in the Sprint. Trainer Bob Baffert has long touted this three-year-old sprinter, and the World Championships could very well be his coming out party.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (5:05pm EST)
6 ½ Furlongs — 3 +Year Olds — $1 Million

The Turf Sprint event has the largest field of any race at the Breeders' Cupwith 16 entrants on Saturday. Ten of the starters are coming off of wins or show finishes for their last races. The odds mirror this by indicating a very even field.

The preference of the oddsmakers will be running from the first and second post. Pure Sensation is the narrow 5/1 favorite and is coming off a win at the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational. She is trailed by Obviously, a 6/1 second choice who has gone 1-2-1 in four starts this season.

A trio of turf sprinters are posting at 8/1 including Washington DC, Celestine and Lot. Celestine is a highly regarded four-year old filly who has won a pair of races on the east coast, while finishing third in two others this year.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (5:43pm EST)
1 1/16th Miles — 2 Year Old Colts & Geldings — $2 Million

The hope with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) is that it produces an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). Last year's winner, Nyquist, proved his pedigree at the event in 2015 and would go on to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. However, outside of a trio of longshots, this race is one of the toughest to call. The race features an 11-horse field with every contender coming in off of a top-2 finish during their last race.

In fact, eight of the Juvenile entrants are renewing rivalries brewed in 2016. Gormley and Klimt clashed at the FrontRunner recently, finishing 1-2, leading to the first defeat  for Klimt in a stakes race.

Practical Joke and Syndergaard also finished 1st and 2nd at the Champagne Stakes in an absolutely thrilling finish. Classic Empire bested Lookin At Lee by a sizeable margin in the Breeders' Futurity. Theory and Star Empire were first and second in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park in October as well.

The favorite in this race is Not This Time, winner of the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in a time of 1:45.22. That would put him just behind Nyquist, who won the race last year in 1:43.79. The only horse to post a faster time at 1 1/16th miles in the juvenile category? Gormley, who won the FrontRunner in 1:43.57.

Breeders' Cup Turf (6:22pm EST)
1 ½ Miles Turf — 3+ Year Olds — $4 Million

A pair of the United Kingdom's finest turf runners will compete in this prestigious race, which offers the second highest purse of any challenge at the Breeders' Cup. One of the reasons that organizers increased the purse  is to attract talent from overseas. Mission accomplished.

Flintshire has been making his presence known in the United States all year long with migrating from Great Britain and the European circuit. He made his debut resounding with a win at the the Manhattan Handicap on Belmont Stakes weekend.

He looked flat out invincible all season long before being upended by Ectot at the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. The drama of the Breeders' Cup Turf will be whether or not he can rebound from his first and only loss of the season after tasting victory for so long.

In a curious twist, Ectot and Flintshire have drawn posts next to one another. Ectot is listed at 8/1, but is no pushover. These two British turf runners will bring out the best in each other come Saturday.

Not to be outdone is Found. A hseasoned horse from Ireland who is 2-6-1 in 9 starts for 2016. He is the defending champion at the Breeders' Cup Turf and will face some familiar competition. Competition which includes Highland Reel who lost to Found in the Prix De L'Arc de Triomphe. The pair of Irish born turf runners are 3/1 second choices on the board.

But this remains Flintshire's race to lose. The fact that he has been in the United States for so long will serve him well, but Found is been met with upsets. He defeated 4/5 favorite Golden Horn in last year's running and will look to defend his reputation this weekend.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7:01pm EST)
7 Furlongs — 3+ Year Old Fillies & Mares — $1 Million

Thankfully for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint field, Songbird has opted to go up against Stellar Wind and Beholder in the Distaff. That's good news for everyone involved, especially those that she's beaten throughout the 2016 campaign. And sure enough, one of those fillies is amongst the top choices in this event.

Carina Mia has stood as one of the most reliable plays all season long rounding out 2-2-1 in 6 starts for the year. She placed second behind Songbird in the Cotillion and the Coaching Club American Oaks. Her 7/2 odds place her second on the betting board.

Haveyougonaway gained the confidence of the oddsmakers at 3/1 with a win in the Ballerina Stakes. She has been quietly dominant in 2016 with a three-race winning streak in hand for a 4-2-0.. As a five-year-old, she may simply be finding her stride late. She would be a much heavier favorite if she was more popular, but most people are not familiar with her.

Tara's Tango has been a relatively consistent bet all season long as well, going 3-0-2 in 6 starts. Her last outing was the Zenyatta Stakes where she finished a very respectable fourth to Stellar Wind, Beholder and Vale Dori. Her 8/1 odds put her right in the thick of things, alongside By The Moon, who ran second to Haveyougoneaway at the Ballerina.

Wavell Avenue posts intriguing odds as a well-known prodigy for trainer Chad Brown. The five-year-old mare has tailed off after winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in 2015. She finished 3rd in the Gallant Bloom last out.

The remainder of the 13-horse field includes a long list of longshots.

Breeders' Cup Mile (7:40pm EST)
1 Mile Turf — 3+ Year Olds — $2 Million

Highlighting the second-to-last event of the weekend is none other than Tepin defending her Breeders' Cup Mile victory. In addition, she recently had her eight-race winning streak snapped in the First Lady Stakes. She is the undeniable top choice in this race at 3/1, but faces fierce competition.

Irish four-year-old gelding Limato is the second choice at a narrow 7/2 which speaks volumes about how highly touted his talent truly is. At 8-4-0 in 12 starts, he was last out winning the Prix de la Foret in Europe.

Alice Springs injects himself into the proceedings as a tight 4/1 choice and can certainly give Tepin a run for her money. Ireland is noted for producing incredibly tough turf runners, and this four-year-old is no exception. He has trended upwards since a poor showing in the Prix Rothschild and won the Matrio and Sun Chariot Stakes before making his way overseas to challenge the Breeders' Cup Mile field.

It would be wise to believe these European newcomers as the biggest threats to Tepin. To put the competition in perspective, Miss Temple City is a 12/1 longshot after beating the boys in both the Shadwell Turf Mile and the Maker's 46 Mile earlier this year. She is joined by Ironicus at 8/1 and Tourist at 15/1, who have finished 2nd and 3rd behind her in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Also in the field are Midnight Storm, who won the Del Mar Mile Handicap, and Hit It A Bomb who was an upset int the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in 2015.

Breeders' Cup Classic (8:35pm EST)
1 ¼ Miles — 3+ Year Olds — $6 Million

The time has finally come for California Chrome to compete in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It's difficult to urge a wager against California Chrome. Chrome would place 3rd behind Bayern and Toast of New York as the 4/1 favorite during an endearing 2014 campaign. His commanding wins in the San Pasqual, Dubai World Cup, San Diego Handicap, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again Stakes have not only cemented him as the best horse of 2016, but these performances have scared off his chief competition.

California Chrome spent much of the year battling Dortmund, who has instead chosen to avoid his rival and compete in the Las Vegas Dirt Mile. Beholder was long expected to challenge for the Classic but three consecutive losses have forced her connections to focus on the Distaff instead.

Can the 2014 Horse of the Year cap off an undefeated season and crest the $15 million mark in career earnings?

According to the oddsmakers, there aren't many challengers standing in his way. The second choice in the Classic is Arrogate, a startling late bloomer who demolished the Travers in his stakes debut. Bob Baffert and Juddmonte Farms have big plans for the three-year-old. A strong showing against the best horse in racing today would certainly go a long way in asserting his worth.

It's incredibly difficult to back a relatively unproven colt against such an incredible talent like California Chrome. Luckily, there are many well known names also starring in the climax of the Breeders' Cup weekend.

Frosted is the first and seemed on a warpath after a 5th place finish in the Dubai World Cup. The finish gave him enough momentum to win both the Met Mile and the Whitney. However, a third place showing at the Woodward, behind Shaman Ghost, downgraded his value in the eyes of some. He has always been on the cusp of greatness, having finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the 2015 Belmont Stakes behind American Pharoah. Some suggest Frosted is better this year than he's ever been.

Many will remember Keen Ice as the only horse that ever beat American Pharoah, but his upset at the 2015 Travers has proven to be a one-off. He last competed in an allowance at Belmont, finishing 3rd. Prior to that he was left behind finishing 8th during the Dubai World Cup.

Effinex will take another shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic after finishing second to American Pharoah last year. He  finished in that same position to Hoppertunity during the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Effinex will receive 12/1 odds while Hoppertunity is a slightly longer 15/1 morning line. 

Also receiving 12/1 odds is Melatonin, the winner at the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June. He has not raced since then, so the five-year-old gelding should be well rested and ready to take on all comers.

War Story and Win The Space round out the Breeders' Cup Classic field at 30/1.

The Breeders' Cup Classic has a feeling of being a three-horse race, but we've seen California Chrome threatened before. Hevanquished all comers with a ferocious competitive spirit. The Classiccould very well have the perfect end, to the perfect season for a second year in a row.

View Friday's race card here.