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The Science of Horse Racing: It's All About Time
From stopwatches to GPS tracking, the methods racetracks have employed over the last three centuries have sought to capture race times accurately for posterity and for punters.
Education
How field sizes can affect win percentages
Many factors can influence the win percentages recorded by jockeys and trainers, both overall and in specific types of races. Ability and opportunity are two of the biggest factors, but another is field size—the number of horses entered in a race.
Education
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: Nov. 8, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing some thoughts on horse racing in larger media and racing films. Then he discusses some thoughts on racing at Delta Downs as well as post positions and handicapping.
Racing Podcast
When a horse specifically targets a race, take notice
When handicapping high-profile graded stakes, it’s helpful to keep an eye on the racing news to determine which horses have been specifically pointed to the race and which are joining the field at the last minute.
Analysis
When turf turns soft, look for longshot speed horses
When heavy rain strikes and a turf course becomes soft, consider upgrading the chances of frontrunners and speed horses. It can reap lucrative dividends.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: When Is Pedigree Useful?
Understanding the influence of sire and dam and the right time to consider pedigree can make that information a useful part of your handicapping routine and give you more data to help you decide where to put your wagering dollar.
Analysis
When well-bred horses debut, wait for the right time to bet
When a sibling or half-sibling to a high-profile racehorse debuts, it’s common for bettors to notice the elite pedigree and bet heavily, even if the sibling is debuting in a race that seems less than ideal from a pedigree perspective.
Education
When chalky outcomes appears likely, consider the superfecta
Some bettors avoid playing races that seem likely to unfold in predictable fashion, because the payoffs are bound to be small. But sometimes the most likely outcome can pay surprisingly well, particularly if you embrace exotic wagers like the superfecta.
Analysis
TwinSpires $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeder: TwinSpires rolls out new $10 win bet tournaments
Outside of working at a racetrack, to me, there’s no better experience as a handicapper than going to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). TwinSpires announced a new tournament, the TwinSpires $5,000 NHC Qualifier, offering two seats.
Education
Betting Strategies: Building tickets with the market in mind
In terms of building multi-race tickets, we are betting into the races blindly, meaning we do not have any tote information about where the money is going and who might be underlays or overlays. Therefore, a lot of horseplayers end up writing tickets that simply reflect their opinions of who could win, forgetting about the notion of value.
Analysis
Identifying versatile sires can lead to lucrative payoffs
When a male racehorse enjoys success racing over a particular surface (dirt, turf, or synthetic), it’s easy to assume his progeny will follow suit. But sometimes they prove more versatile than expected.
Analysis
When betting lightly raced juveniles, analyze the horses they’ve run against
When handicapping lightly raced juveniles who have only run one or two times, it’s helpful to examine the quality of horses they’ve competed against to get a feel for which runners are coming out of high-quality races.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Bits
From a simple snaffle to a Norton, the right bit is just as important as the saddle and the blinkers you see on your favorite Thoroughbred.
Education
Betting Strategy: Pursuing Opinions Worth Betting
Kevin Kilroy discusses a unique take on betting strategy and the questions you may want to ask yourself before placing that winning bet.
Education
When favorites are out of form, up-and-comers can surprise
An accomplished racehorse in subpar form can be vulnerable against up-and-coming but less accomplished rivals.
Analysis
Improving horses can turn the tables on seemingly superior rivals
Just because one horse beats another the first time they face off doesn’t mean the outcome won’t be reversed in subsequent meetings. The history of horse racing is replete with examples.
Analysis
Betting Strategy: So you like an underlay favorite, what now?
You’re handicapping and you see a horse you like--a form pattern, a trainer angle, speed figures, whatever the angle. This horse should win, you think. What now?
Education
What is a Quarter Horse and why is it named that?
Versatility, agility, strength, and speed are the overarching qualities that make the Quarter Horse such a stunning and special equine breed.
Education
Horses debuting in stakes can win and pay nicely
Once in a while, you’ll see an unraced horse enter a stakes. You might assume an inexperienced first-time starter is overmatched against stakes-caliber rivals, but that isn’t always the case.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Who Is the Fastest?
Whether they pull a sulky, run a long distance, or sprint over a short quarter mile, three breeds are the stars of the sport we all love, but, of the three, who is the fastest and why?
Education
Look for horses beaten by talented rivals; they can offer nice odds
In many horse races, there is a tendency among bettors to favor horses who enter in winning form. But a horse who ran well in defeat against a talented rival can be just as likely to factor.
Analysis
Training to Win: Mutli-race ticket construction with James Scully [VIDEO]
When it comes to multi-race bets, also known as horizontal wagers, good ticket construction involves budget and strategy.
Education
Training to Win: Graded Stakes race analyzation with James Scully [VIDEO]
Graded stakes are specialized races - the highest levels in Thoroughbred racing - and bettors have many factors to consider when handicapping.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Kingston Goes the Distance
Bred by a Pillar of the Turf in James R. Keene, Kingston’s longevity on the racetrack comes in not only in the number of times he raced but in the wins he accumulated over his nine seasons, his greatness sealed in the record books and the Hall of Fame for all time.
History
When elite speed horses duel, consider the possibility one will falter
What happens when the two best horses in a race are pacesetters with lots of early speed? The answer isn’t always what you expect.
Analysis
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Assault
With a heart as big as Texas, Assault did not let his small size or disfigured hoof keep him from wearing a crown and sealing his place in racing history.
Triple Crown
When betting with stats, make sure they're up to date
Bettors who employ statistics in their handicapping should ask themselves from time to time whether their favorite angles are still relevant, or if the data is telling a new story.
Analysis
Sometimes, it pays to excuse a disappointing first race
If a young horse disappoints when well-bet in their first start, it can pay to take a forgiving view of the performance and assume they’ll run better second-time out.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: What is a Turf Hoof?
Understanding the difference between turf and dirt hooves and what that knowledge adds to your toolbox can give you another angle to consider when making your picks.
Education
Unpredictable two-year-olds provide opportunities to beat favorites
Horseplayers should be careful betting on heavily favored two-year-olds, especially during the summer when early-maturing types with flashy form lines tackle tougher races.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: A Girl Named Ruth(less)
More than the first name on a long list, Ruthless was the best of her generation, whose grand career on the track made her accidental demise off the track all the more tragic.
Education
Why seemingly good trips can actually be bad
In horse racing, the simplest form of a “bad trip” is racing wide and losing ground against a rail-skimming rival. But on the other hand, saving ground doesn’t automatically constitute a good trip.
Analysis
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Count Fleet
Count Fleet swept into his classic season like no other. Virtually unbeatable at three, his trip through the three races was marked not by grinding stretch runs for the win but by the ease behind his victories, the clear joy he had in the running. The heart that wore the sixth Triple Crown was one that was both headstrong and ecstatic in one small brown package.
Triple Crown
When high-class horses lose off layoffs, betting opportunities can arise
When a high-profile racehorse suffers a defeat in their first run off a layoff, it’s tempting to forgive the misfire and assume they were a bit rusty. But that isn’t always the right betting strategy.
Analysis
What is a World Pool, and how does it work?
Once in a while, you might hear the term “World Pool” pop up in reference to international horse racing. Have you ever wondered what it means?
International
Betting Strategy: Finding an edge as a horseplayer
The individual horseplayer can find an edge from seeing the same thing as everybody else but reacting to it in a different way.
Education
Horsey History in the Tar Heel State: Where Breeding and Racing Have Surprising North Carolina Roots
Though live racing has not been part of the sporting landscape for generations, North Carolina has deep roots in the early history of both Thoroughbred racing and breeding, roots even older than the United States itself.
History
The Science of Horse Racing: Four Legs and Infinite Questions
Injuries to a horse’s leg bones can mean a range of outcomes, requiring everything from simply time to heal to ultimately having to let go of a beloved companion. From Spanish Riddle to Epicenter, the reality of the legs’ structures makes treatment and recovery a tenuous and difficult outcome that is dependent on a number of variables.
Education
How track bias and post stats can point out logical winners
Finding a near-certain winner in a horse race isn’t easy, but analyzing track bias and post position statistics can help uncover the likeliest of winners.
Analysis
In some graded stakes, historical trends reveal standout contenders
Some races are dominated by a particular type of horse year after year, and bettors attuned to these trends have a better-than-average chance to cash nice payoffs.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Three Times the Victory
The Carter Handicap has long been a feature of the New York stakes schedule. Inaugurated in 1895, the race is named for William Carter, a tugboat captain and Brooklyn contractor who put up a portion of the purse money and the trophy for his namesake race. Both Aqueduct and Belmont Park have hosted the Carter, but for the majority of its history, it has been contested at Aqueduct, where, in 1944, something singular happened.
Education
How small fields provide chances to nail exotic wagers
There is a belief among bettors that small fields make for unappealing betting races. But small fields don’t always mean small payoffs.
Education
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Whirlaway
Whirlaway, the fifth Triple Crown winner, ignited the imaginations of those along for the ride on the cusp of war in 1941.
Triple Crown
Sometimes, a horse's distance limitations aren't hard and fast
Not all racehorses run best over the same distances. Some are sprinters who tire running farther than six or seven furlongs, while others are route racers who thrive racing 1 1/8 miles and farther.
Education
Subtleties in race grades can produce lucrative payoffs
You might assume that a Grade 1 race is better than a Grade 2, and a Grade 2 is better than a Grade 3. That’s a good rule of thumb, but it doesn’t always hold true.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: We're All Ears
Understanding the language of a horse’s ears as well as the impact of what they hear on their behavior can help us gain insight into our athletic partners on the track and off.
Education
How Kentucky Derby Winners Have Fared in Preakness Stakes
The 13 Triple Crown winners captured both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) en route to the Belmont (G1), but that just scratches the surface of the impact of the Run for the Roses on the middle jewel.
Preakness Stakes
Watch out when route runners are actually sprinters
It’s not uncommon to see young horses run well in their first route race, only to falter in subsequent two-turn events. A single victory running long isn’t always indicative of a true route racer in the making.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Bourbon, Bets, and the Beatles
The combination of a well-timed swig of bourbon, a fortuitous wager, and a basement music club made history not just in horse racing, but also in rock and roll.
Education
Betting Strategy: Free Roll for a Seat at the NHC
The second of five free online qualifiers for the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) is set for this Sunday, May 14.
Education
The Heart That Wears the Crown: War Admiral
Lofty expectations are laid upon the greats when they exit stage left to enter the next phase. When Man o’ War said goodbye to his life on the track, the focus then became on whether the 20th century’s greatest racehorse could produce another one like him. Whatever it was that made Big Red so dominant and so iconic had to be passed along to his progeny, but what would that look like?
Triple Crown
When analyzing layoffs, sometimes basic handicapping trumps all
There are many ways handicappers can gauge whether a horse is ready to win off a long layoff. One of the simplest is, has the horse shown the ability to win a race like the one you’re handicapping?
Analysis
Kentucky Derby 2023 Purse: How much prize money the winning jockey will earn
In addition to the worldwide attention and acclaim Sonny Leon received for his spectacular ride aboard Rich Strike, Leon—a first-time Derby participant in 2022—also collected a portion of the $3 million purse.
Kentucky Derby
Top 10 fastest Kentucky Derby times in history
From a legendary Triple Crown winner to a high-priced yearling who stole the heart of a Japanese racing enthusiast, here are the 10 horses with the fastest winning times in Kentucky Derby history.
Triple Crown
Top 10 Most Successful Trainers in Kentucky Derby History
Based on overall number of victories, as well as second- and third-place finishes, here are the 10 most successful trainers in Kentucky Derby history.
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Brian Hernandez Jr. and Reylu Gutierrez at Keeneland
Two jockeys had big days at Keeneland on Saturday. Brian Hernandez Jr. won three races including piloting home 13-1 Aunt Becca, and Rey Gutierrez bagged two, most impressively aboard 12-1 Front Run the Fed.
Analysis
When it comes to trainer stats, nuance matters
Trainer stats are among the most valuable tools horseplayers have at their disposal. But a trainer’s overall win percentage is only one part of the story.
Analysis
When three-year-olds face older horses, the class level matters
Traditional handicapping guidance explains that three-year-old Thoroughbreds are rarely ready to challenge older horses before autumn. But the equation can change at lower class levels.
Analysis
Betting Strategy: Chris Larmey, “Nobody wants to be a fish"
To succeed long term, a horseplayer needs to know how to bet in order to cash in. Chris Larmey has begun a new podcast “Bet With the Best” aimed at exactly that.
Education
Top 10 Fastest Horse Breeds in the World
From the noble Arabian poised for battle to the esteemed equines who run in the Kentucky Derby, let's explore the 10 fastest horse breeds in the world.
Education
Should you bet or dismiss a horse off a bad race?
It happens all the time. A horse enters a race off a poor performance in its previous start, leaving bettors to wonder—will the horse rebound, or run badly again?
Analysis
The Heart that Wears the Crown: Omaha
When any Triple Crown winner goes to stud, the high expectations set by winning that coveted trophy come along, as fans eagerly anticipate the next generation. Can he copy himself and produce another just like him? Of the 13 to have worn the crown, only one has done what is nearly impossible, a feat unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon: siring another Triple Crown winner.
Education
Pedigree lingo: Phrases to known in horse racing
Words like “sire,” “dam,” and “broodmare” don’t necessarily mean a lot to those unfamiliar with horses or horse racing. Fortunately, the lingo isn’t as complicated as it sounds.
Pedigree
Top 10 best racehorses of all time
Ranking the greatest racehorse of all time is an exercise fraught with challenges and subjectivity. But I'm going to give it a try.
Kentucky Derby
How and when to bet a Power Box
Boxing bets. There have always been pros and cons to this catch-all strategy. If only there were a way to box bets in a more nuanced manner. Well guess what? That’s what a Power Box is for.
Analysis
What is the Place Pick All, and how do you bet it?
Once in a while you’ll see a racetrack offer a less common type of wager. One example is the “Place Pick All”.
Analysis
What is a key race, and how do you identify one?
Have you ever heard of a “key race?” A key race is a race from which a large number of participants return to win or run well the next time they compete.
Analysis
When to bet (or not bet) the trifecta
The trifecta often seems like the perfect exotic wager. But some situations are more suitable for trifecta betting than others.
Analysis
When you should (or shouldn't) bet a Pick 6
Effectively betting a Pick 6 can be difficult and expensive. These guidelines help you determine when you should (or shouldn’t) bet a Pick 6.
Analysis
Why it pays to look beyond a horse's most recent race
Horses aren’t machines, and any number of events can trigger a poor performance. Knowing when to forgive a subpar result is often the key to cashing tickets.
Analysis
G1-to-maiden class drop can be surprisingly lucrative
One of the most extreme examples of "dropping in class" occurs when a horse exits a Grade 1 race (the highest class there is) and enters a maiden race (restricted to horses who have never won a race).
Analysis
When to bet to place (or not)
The place bet can be a tricky wager to properly play. Not because it’s complicated to understand, but because executing a sound strategy that capitalizes on your opinions is easier said than done.
Analysis
Using Stable Alerts as a handicapping tool
If you’ve ever missed a bet because you weren’t aware your preferred horse was entered to race, we have good news. Stable Alerts from TwinSpires let you know when it’s time to bet.
Education
The Science of Horse Racing: Foaling the Future
Let’s look at the process of foaling and how our favorite racehorses went from safe inside a broodmare’s womb to taking their first steps toward greatness.
Education
The best way to decide and create a place bet
When carefully executed, the place bet can play a useful role in a bettor’s arsenal of handicapping strategies.
Analysis
The best way to decide and create a show bet
As strange as it might sound, the horse racing wager that's easiest to hit is one of the trickiest to understand on a technical level.
Analysis
The best way to decide and create a win bet
The win bet is the purest way to wager on a horse race. All you have to do is pick the winning horse. But deciding which horse to bet can quickly grow complicated.
Analysis
How trainer and sire stats can combine for enticing payoffs
When betting maiden races filled with unraced horses, win percentage stats come in handy. They consistently steer bettors toward live contenders in races that might otherwise be inscrutable.
Analysis
The Science of Racing: The Starting Gate
It is a sight as familiar to racegoers as the horses themselves: the starting gate. As the minutes to the next race tick by, a tractor pulls this mechanical wonder to the right spot on the racetrack, dirt or turf, and draws the eyes of everyone present.
Education
How trainer stats can point toward future stakes winners
When a horse defies the stats and wins at first asking for a low-percentage debut trainer, you might be looking at a special horse. Maybe even a stakes winner.
Analysis
What is a jockey weight allowance?
In the sport of horse racing, the amount of weight carried by each horse has long been varied to account for differences in age, gender, and ability. Or, in some cases, the experience of their jockey.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Colic and Laminitis
Both colic and laminitis come up as health issues that affect horses both on the racetrack and off.
Education
Oaklawn Park: How scrutinizing race conditions can be beneficial
The first thing bettors should generally do before handicapping a race is read and comprehend its conditions.
Analysis
Why horses tackling multiple major changes can outrun their odds
Sometimes, a racehorse will tackle so many changes at once it’s impossible to project how they'll perform. But the “change everything” approach can occasionally reap big dividends.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Two Angles to find prices at Fair Grounds, Part One
Four weeks in at Fair Grounds, racing analyst Kevin Kilroy has found two handicapping angles that have been key for finding price horses.
Analysis
True Crime in Horse Racing: Shergar, Stallion Lost
This month, we explore the ultimate cold case in horse racing, an international mystery that captivates to this day. Who kidnapped Shergar and why?
History
How sire stats and racing records can uncover winners
Sometimes, combining a little pedigree knowledge with the sire stats and performance data found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances is all you need to uncover a lucrative betting payday.
Pedigree
Off-the-turf races can present enticing betting opportunities
When races slated to take place on turf are instead transferred to dirt or synthetic, enticing betting opportunities can arise.
Analysis
Fair Grounds meet horseplayer preview: Louisiana circuit insights
Here are some things to know about Fair Grounds and the Louisiana circuit to help sharpen your edge.
Analysis
Brisnet Speed ratings can make small fields playable
The power of speed figures—and specifically the Brisnet Speed ratings published in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances—came to the forefront in the 2022 Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Why Do Jockeys Ride Like That?
The race rider’s stance has gone from straight in the saddle to a balanced squat over the withers, a change that started with one legendary jockey and was soon adopted worldwide. This month’s Science of Horse Racing examines both how this change came about and why this demanding position works for both horse and rider.
Education
Pick 5 Play Fair Grounds: Saturday, Nov. 19
It’s important to have a strong opinion in one of the first two legs of this sequence at Fair Grounds.
Education
The power of Brisnet Late Pace ratings
Among the many handicapping tools found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances are Brisnet Late Pace ratings. Their power was evident during 2022 Breeders' Cup week.
Education
The Science of Horse Racing: Track Surfaces
This month’s Science of Horse Racing considers the three types of surfaces and how weather and geography play into our understanding of how horses race over those tracks.
Education
Exploring the effects of left-handed, right-handed, and straight racecourses
In the U.S., practically all Thoroughbred horse races feature at least one left-handed turn for the runners to negotiate. But racing around left-handed turns is far from standard on the global stage.
Breeders Cup
4 reasons you should bet turf races
Some of the most famous horse races in the United States are contested on dirt, including the Kentucky Derby (G1). But turf races often provide the best betting opportunities for horseplayers.
Education
5 positive signs when betting on unraced horses
It can be tricky for inexperienced horseplayers to bet on maiden races filled with unraced horses. How is it possible to predict the performances of horses who have never run?
Education
Betting Strategies: Pool Selection with Geoff Riggs
Born the day after his parents’ annual Kentucky Derby party, Louisville native Geoff Riggs’s love of horse racing was fated.
Education