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Last updated May 1, 2021
Odds for the 2021 Kentucky Derby are a sought after barometer for horse-players and the public alike, because Morning Line odds help provide details of class and value among the field of Kentucky Derby runners.
- Short odds refers to odds that are closer to even money or ‘1,’ such as ‘4-5.’
- The shorter the horse’s odds, the better the horse can be perceived to be compared among racing peers.
- Long odds refers to odds that move further away from even money or ‘1,’ such as ’30-1.’
- The longer the horse’s odds, the less talent a horse could have among the Derby starters.
Where can I Find Kentucky Derby odds?
Return to this page following the 2021 Kentucky Derby post position draw for morning line odds!
- Official Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds
- LIVE Kentucky Derby odds (on TwinSpires.com)
- Kentucky Derby LIVE odds (on KentuckyDerby.com)
- Kentucky Derby Prep Race Winner Odds
- How Morning Line Odds are made
- Wynn Las Vegas Odds
Official 2021 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds
With the 2020-21 Road to the Kentucky Derby concluded and the official field and post positions announced, find the official morning line odds for the 2021 Run for the Roses. The Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality, with four wins on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, is the favorite with 2-1 odds.
| (POST) HORSE | ML ODDS | TRAINER / JOCKEY | RTKD POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Known Agenda | 6-1 | Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. | 102 |
| (2) Like the King | 50-1 | Wesley Ward / Drayden Van Dyke | 104 |
| (3) Brooklyn Strong | 50-1 | Daniel Velazquez / Umberto Rispoli | 10 |
| (4) Keepmeinmind | 50-1 | Robertino Diodoro / David Cohen | 18 |
| (5) Sainthood | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher / Corey Lanerie | 40 |
| (6) O Besos | 20-1 | Greg Foley / Marcelino Pedroza | 25 |
| (7) Mandaloun | 15-1 | Brad Cox / Florent Geroux | 52 |
| (8) Medina Spirit | 15-1 | Bob Baffert / John Velazquez | 74 |
| (9) Hot Rod Charlie | 8-1 | Doug O’Neill / Flavien Prat | 110 |
| (10) Midnight Bourbon | 20-1 | Steve Asmussen / Mike Smith | 66 |
| (11) Dynamic One | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz | 40 |
| (12) Helium | 50-1 | Mark Casse / Julien Leparoux | 50 |
| (13) Hidden Stash | 50-1 | Vicki Oliver / Rafael Bejarano | 32 |
| (14) Essential Quality | 2-1 | Brad Cox / Luis Saez | 140 |
| (15) Rock Your World | 5-1 | John Sadler / Joel Rosario | 100 |
| (16) King Fury | 20-1 | Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. | 20 |
| (17) Highly Motivated | 10-1 | Chad Brown / Javier Castellano | 50 |
| (18) Super Stock | 30-1 | Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. | 109 |
| (19) Soup and Sandwich | 30-1 | Mark Casse / Tyler Gaffalione | 40 |
| (20) Bourbonic | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher / Kendrick Carmouche | 100 |
Official morning line odds are selected by an odds line maker following the post position draw on Derby week. The odds maker determines, as best they can, what the odds of each horse will sit at by betting public interest and wagering action.
Any odds or lines that exist anywhere prior to the official Kentucky Derby draw on Derby week are either speculative, a bookmaker’s best guess and non official.
Morning Line vs Final Odds for Kentucky Derby Prep Race Winners
Below is a table that displays each Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race and that race’s winning horse, and what each winning horse’s morning line and final odds were going into those races.
- What can we learn from the information on each Kentucky Derby North American prep race winner for the 2021 Kentucky Derby season?
- With morning line odds and final odds side by side in the table below, which horses started as a near favorite and by start time, due to public money fluctuation, fell or gained public betting backing?
- Will these Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race winners be favorites for the Kentucky Derby?
| RTKD Race | Winning Horse | ML Odds | Final Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iroquois Stakes | Sittin On Go | 15-1 | 24-1 |
| American Pharoah Stakes | Get Her Number | 7-2 | 8-1 |
| Breeders' Futurity | Essential Quality | 2-1 | 9-5 |
| Champagne Stakes | Jackie's Warrior | 3-5 | 4-5 |
| Breeders' Cup Juvenile | Essential Quality | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Kentucky Jockey Club | Keepmeinmind | 6-5 | 2-1 |
| Remsen Stakes | Brooklyn Strong | 7-2 | 7-1 |
| Springboard Mile | Senor Buscador | 15-1 | 7-2 |
| Los Alamitos Futurity | Spielberg | 5-2 | 9-5 |
| Jerome Stakes | Capo Kane | 12-1 | 6-1 |
| Sham Stakes | Life Is Good | 2-5 | 1-5 |
| Lecomte Stakes | Midnight Bourbon | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | Caddo River | 5-2 | 3-5 |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | Medina Spirit | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Holy Bull Stakes | Greatest Honour | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Withers Stakes | Risk Taking | 5-2 | 9-5 |
| Sam F. Davis | Candy Man Rocket | 10-1 | 3-1 |
| El Camino Real Derby | Rombauer | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| John Battaglia Memorial | Hush of a Storm | 10-1 | 6-1 |
| Southwest Stakes | Essential Quality | 3-2 | 4-5 |
| Risen Star Stakes | Mandaloun | 9-2 | 2-1 |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | Greatest Honour | 9-5 | 1-1 |
| Gotham Stakes | Weyburn | 20-1 | 46-1 |
| Tampa Bay Derby | Helium | 6-1 | 15-1 |
| San Felipe Stakes | Life Is Good | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Rebel Stakes | Concert Tour | 2-1 | 8-5 |
| Louisiana Derby | Hot Rod Charlie | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | Like the King | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| Florida Derby | Known Agenda | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| UAE Derby | Rebel's Romance | n/a | n/a |
| Blue Grass Stakes | Essential Quality | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Santa Anita Derby | Rock Your World | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Wood Memorial | Bourbonic | 30-1 | 72-1 |
| Arkansas Derby | Super Stock | 6-1 | 12-1 |
| Lexington Stakes | King Fury | 10-1 | 18-1 |
How Kentucky Derby Morning-line Odds Are Made
Kentucky Derby odds are released during the Post Position Draw, a one-hour ceremony that determines starting positions. The Post Position Draw takes place on the Wednesday preceding the Kentucky Derby, which is held on the first Saturday in May. TwinSpires bettors know that we are the home for Kentucky Derby wagering – and these race odds being released are truly one of the most exciting pieces the Kentucky Derby wagering process.
Mike Battaglia, Churchill Downs’ odds maker since 1974, is responsible for both the Kentucky Derby and KDFW morning line odds. He reveals odds for the main event shortly after post positions are drawn.
KentuckyDerby.com streams the Post Position Draw ceremony and the event has been televised nationally on NBCSN and local affiliates.
A full field of 20 contenders can be expected every year for America’s most famous horse race. With the the maximum number of betting interests in other U.S. races sitting at 14, the Kentucky Derby offers the potential for great bet returns. Only four horses went off at less than 10-1 odds in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
For live odds, you can log-in to TwinSpires for free or visit KentuckyDerby.com.
Churchill Downs also offers up to four installments of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) in the months leading up to the race. A November KDFW was introduced in 2013, and the remaining three pools are typically scheduled during February, March and April surrounding the important prep races. The morning line odds are released ahead of the weekend and the unique betting opportunity lasts Friday through Sunday.
2020 Kentucky Derby: Las Vegas Opinions
What are book makers thinking when it comes to horses in the Kentucky Derby? Find a sample of their opening and closing odds for January 14, 2020.
| HORSE NAME | OPEN | CLOSE |
| DENNIS’ MOMENT | 10 | 12 |
| EIGHT RINGS | 10 | 15 |
| MAXFIELD | 12 | 12 |
| TIZ THE LAW | 20 | 8 |
| INDEPENDENCE HALL | 25 | 10 |
| GOUVERNEUR MORRIS | 40 | 30 |
| HONOR A.P. | 50 | 14 |
| SCABBARD | 50 | 50 |
| GREEN LIGHT GO | 75 | 75 |
| PRINCE OF PHAROAHS | 75 | 75 |
| RELENTLESS DANCER | 75 | 75 |
| SHOPLIFTED | 75 | 75 |
| SILVER STATE | 75 | 45 |
| AUTHENTIC | 75 | 16 |
| AZUL COAST | 75 | 35 |
| AMERICAN THEOREM | 75 | 75 |
| ANCIENT WARRIOR | 75 | 40 |
| EXPRESS TRAIN | 80 | 50 |
| STORM THE COURT | 90 | 12 |
Wynn Las Vegas Odds Summary for the 2018 Kentucky Derby
Looking at the Kentucky Derby, which ran on May 5th, we looked back in September, when the Wynn Las Vegas casino released futures numbers on a massive list of potential winners of the Kentucky Derby. This is undeniably when the contenders had their best odds and you don’t have to do much digging to see how much as changed.
Bolt d’Oro had long been the barometer for the 2018 Kentucky Derby as the highest rated two-year-old of the 2017 campaign. According to Wynn Las Vegas, Bolt d’Oro was worth 40/1 odds to win the Derby, which is far and away the best odds on the board at the time. Things have changed since then. Thanks to a slightly dubious win in the San Felipe Stakes, Bolt d’Oro moved to a 8/1 second-favorite.
The horse that Bolt d’Oro beat in that race was the same horse that actually beat him on the track. McKinzie crossed the wire first but was relegated to second due to a questionable review by the track officials. McKinzie wasn’t even on the Wynn Las Vegas radar back in September but most recently posted as a 7/1 option.
One of the horse’s that had generated interest in the Kentucky Derby Futures Wager due to some incredible trainings was Justify, a WinStar colt sired by Scat Daddy and trained by the legendary Bob Baffert. Justify ran a bullet mile in 1:35.73 at Santa Anita back on March 11th and was set to make his competitive debut in the Arkansas Derby on April 14th. He closed the Kentucky Derby Futures Wager Pool 3 board as an unexpected favorite, leveraging a huge amount of action and earning 6/1 odds. Wynn Las Vegas posted him at 12/1. He’s the most difficult horse to nail down from a betting angle at that point on the Derby trail.
Justify isn’t the only new contender on the books. Magnum Moon’s win in the Rebel Stakes propelled him to a 12/1 number. Solomini shares the same odds despite losing the Rebel to Magnum Moon simply because we’ve seen him more often. His odds were most recently 20/1.
With just over a month to go between now and the 2018 Kentucky Derby, the race to the top of the betting board is just starting to enjoy a bit more serenity after the chaos of the derby trail. Horses like Audible, Promises Fulfilled, Bolt d’Oro, McKinzie, Justify and many others are starting to submit major victories in the top tier races of the derby trail.
Casinos like Wynn Las Vegas sometimes have odds that seem out of sync with what you would find at more finely tuned horsebooks, and they help offer a different perspective.
The upcoming Florida Derby (March 31st), Wood Memorial (April 7th), Blue Grass (April 7th) , Santa Anita Derby (April 7th) and Arkansas Derby (April 14th) will hopefully offer even more clarity.