Jonathan's Way

Jonathan’s Way became the first horse to earn points on the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby when wiring the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Bred in Ohio by Susan L. Anderson Racing, Jonathan’s Way has shown versatility in terms of running style. He was never headed in the Iroquois, but won his debut sprinting six furlongs with a big rally after a troubled start.

But does Jonathan’s Way have the pedigree to race 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May? The Kentucky Derby (G1) distance tests both speed and stamina, and while we know Jonathan’s Way has speed, his pedigree suggests stamina is a question mark.

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Chancer McPatrick

Chancer McPatrick ranks among the most accomplished two-year-olds of 2024 after winning the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).

Prevailing in the Champagne earned Chancer McPatrick 10 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. With two Grade 1 wins under his belt, the bay colt is an early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). But will his deep-closing style prove successful over 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May? His pedigree suggests it’s not a given.

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Citizen Bull

Citizen Bull has enjoyed a productive Road to the Kentucky Derby campaign, posting frontrunning successes in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1), 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and one-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3).

A brief glance at Citizen Bull’s pedigree might suggest 1 1/16 miles is the upper limit of his distance capabilities, leaving the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) out of reach. After all, both his sire and dam sire were sprinter/milers who failed to prove their worth over 1 1/4 miles.

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East Avenue

A gate-to-wire victory by 5 1/4 lengths in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) launched East Avenue onto the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The Godolphin homebred is known for his frontrunning style, but don’t conflate his abundant speed with stamina limitations. His pedigree suggests stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) won’t be an obstacle.

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Sovereignty

There was a time not too many years ago when a horse like Sovereignty might have been overlooked as a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender because of his pedigree.

Even with decisive stretch-running scores in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) and 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) under his belt, bettors might have doubted Sovereignty’s ability to stretch out over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby. The reason? His sire, Into Mischief.

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FIRST RESORT

First Resort showed signs of talent sprinting on dirt and running long on turf, finishing second in the Saratoga Special (G2) and fourth in the Summer (G1).

But a pace-tracking 2 1/4-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby suggests running long on dirt is First Resort’s true strong suit. The Kentucky Jockey Club took place at Churchill Downs, host track of the Kentucky Derby (G1), and from a pedigree perspective First Resort is well-equipped to take aim at the 2025 Run for the Roses.

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POSTER

After opening his career with a pair of turf wins, Poster switched to dirt and joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a triumph in the Remsen (G2).

Held over 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, the Remsen is the longest Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifier for two-year-olds. Having prevailed over such a challenging distance as a juvenile, you might assume Poster will relish stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby. But then again, he was all-ought to win the Remsen by a diminishing nose, which suggests running a furlong farther in the Derby might not be ideal.

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Coal Battle

Sprints and miles are clearly within the wheelhouse of Coal Battle. But can he handle the testing 1 1/4-mile distance of the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1)?

Following a stretch-running win in the 6 1/2-furlong Jean Lafitte S., Coal Battle joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a rallying triumph in the one-mile Remington Springboard Mile and a gate-to-wire triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones S.

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Journalism

Sometimes it’s possible to glance at the pedigree of a potential Kentucky Derby (G1) contender and conclude with certainty they’re bred to shine racing 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May.

Such is the case with Journalism. The bay colt impressed in his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut, pulling away to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) by 3 1/2 lengths. He followed up with fast triumphs over tough competition in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

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Built

Built joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a gate-to-wire triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds.

Even after setting the pace, Built had enough stamina left to accelerate his fourth quarter-mile in :23.50 and his final sixteenth in :06.26 to dominate by 6 3/4 lengths.

It’s easy to see where Built gets his combination of speed and stamina. His pedigree contains both in a mixture that suggests stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby (G1) is within reach.

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Cyclone State

Cyclone State showed abundant early speed on his way to winning the Jerome S., a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier held over one mile at Aqueduct.

Cyclone State led for every step of the journey and boasted an eight-length advantage with a furlong remaining. But his lead shrank to 3 1/2 lengths at the finish line, raising an important question: does Cyclone State have the stamina to stretch out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby (G1), or is one mile the approximate limit of his distance capabilities?

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Disco Time 

A determined rally from 10 lengths off the pace carried Disco Time to victory in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

With three victories from as many starts, Disco Time has emerged as a serious contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). But is the Derby’s testing 1 1/4-mile journey within Disco Time’s distance capabilities? His pedigree gives off mixed signals.

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Speed King

Speed King lived up to his name in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, leading all the way to win the $1 million race by one length.

This followed a game runner-up finish in the Remington Springboard Mile S., in which Speed King stayed on after an intense speed duel to finish second by half a length to stretch-running Coal Battle.

Clearly speed is the name of the game for Speed King. But in both the Springboard Mile and the Southwest, he lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line. Will he be able to carry his abundant speed over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? His performances—and his pedigree—suggest it’s not a given.

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Burnham Square

Burnham Square caught eyes in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last place to prevail in the good time of 1:43.60.

Now handicappers must answer an important question: can Burnham Square handle the testing 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Or are shorter routes likely to be his strong suit? Perhaps an analysis of his pedigree can reveal the answer.

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Captian Cook

Captain Cook handled 1 1/8 miles without difficulty when making his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the Withers S. at Aqueduct, pouncing from just off the pace to win by 2 1/4 lengths.

But can Captain Cook stretch out over another eighth of a mile for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1)? His pedigree suggests 1 1/8 miles might be the upper limit of his distance capabilities.

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JOHN HANCOCK

John Hancock joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with an unwavering performance in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

After leading for much of the journey, John Hancock engaged in an intense head-to-head battle with Owen Almighty down the homestretch. Despite racing in tight quarters along the inside, John Hancock repelled Owen Almighty’s challenge to prevail by half a length.

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MAGNITUDE

A 9 3/4-length demolition of the Risen Star (G2) has stamped Magnitude as a serious contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1).

The bay colt had no trouble handling the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Risen Star, reaching the finish line in a fast 1:48.85. He gave the impression stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby won’t be an issue, and his pedigree concurs.

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GETAWAY CAR 

A brief glance at the pedigree of Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car might lead to the conclusion he’s bred to shine racing classic distances.

Surely the 1 1/4-mile journey of the Kentucky Derby (G1) is within reach? After all, Getaway Car is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), and two editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) racing 1 1/4 miles, in addition to the Preakness (G1) over 1 3/16 miles.

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CALIFORNIA BURRITO 

A refuse-to-lose tenacity carried California Burrito to victory in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway Park. The frontrunning colt turned back a challenge to prevail by half a length.

The John Battaglia Memorial took place over Turfway’s synthetic Tapeta track, but California Burrito previously showed encouraging form on dirt at Churchill Downs, trouncing a $150,000 maiden claimer and finishing second in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer.

Switching back to dirt for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) shouldn’t be a concern for California Burrito. But can he handle the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance? That’s a tougher question.

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LUXOR CAFE

Luxor Cafe, a Triple Crown nominee based in Japan, could have Kentucky Derby (G1) aspirations after winning the Hyacinth S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Racing 1,600 meters (about one mile) at Tokyo Racecourse, Luxor Cafe rallied to lead in the homestretch, then dug deep to turn back a challenge from Promised Gene and prevail by half a length in 1:37.6.

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FLOOD ZONE

Flood Zone made his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. Racing a one-turn mile, the bay colt dueled for the lead and pulled clear down the lane to win by 3 1/4 lengths.

The fact Flood Zone relished racing a one-turn mile shouldn’t come as a surprise. His sired, Frosted, famously dominated the 2016 Metropolitan H. (G1) over a one-turn mile at Belmont Park. Frosted won by 14 1/4 lengths in the blazing time of 1:32.73, not far off the North American record of 1:32 1/5 for one mile on dirt.

So does this mean one-turn miles are destined to be Flood Zone’s strong suit, and the Florida-bred colt has no chance to shine racing 1 1/4 miles around two turns in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Not necessarily.

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OWEN ALMIGHTY

We know Owen Almighty has speed. He showed that quite clearly when wiring the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby by 3 1/2 lengths.

But does Owen Almighty have the necessary stamina to win over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? That’s a tough question to answer, because Owen Almighty’s pedigree can be interpreted multiple ways.

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AMERICAN PROMISE

A 7 3/4-length demolition of the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs launched American Promise into the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture.

Racing over a lightning-fast track, American Promise completed 1 1/8 miles in the track-record time of 1:46.41. His pedigree indicates stretching out another furlong in distance for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby won’t be an issue.

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TIZTASTIC

Of all the horses taking aim at the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1), Tiztastic boasts one of the most interesting pedigrees.

The upset winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) is closely inbred to Tapit, a three-time leading North American sire. Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G1), Tapit is known for passing on stamina at stud, with his best runners including 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline and 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) winners Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality. The progeny of Tapit win at a lofty average distance of 7.6 furlongs.

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Final Gambit

A terrific homestretch rally allowed Final Gambit to overcome a bumping start and dominate the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut.

The Jeff Ruby took place at a distance of 1 1/8 miles over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park. The Kentucky Derby (G1) is a 1 1/4-mile dirt race. Does Final Gambit have the pedigree to switch distances and surfaces successfully for the Run for the Roses?

There’s a strong chance the answer is “yes” on both accounts.

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TAPPAN STREET

A well-timed rally carried Tappan Street to victory in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, stamping the bay colt as the latest top-tier Kentucky Derby (G1) contender sired by Into Mischief.

Into Mischief is in the midst of a stellar stud career. He’s ranked as North America’s leading sire by progeny earnings every year from 2019 through 2024, becoming the first to top the chart more than three times since Bold Ruler in the 1960s.

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SANDMAN

An eye-catching rally from behind a fast pace carried Sandman to victory in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby (G1) shouldn’t be an obstacle for Sandman. But one interpretation of his pedigree suggests there’s a possibility the first Saturday in May is coming up a bit soon for Sandman.

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RODRIGUEZ

Rodriguez emerged as a top-tier 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender when leading from start to finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Rodriguez posted quick times throughout the 1 1/8-mile race and drew off down the homestretch to prevail by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:48.15. But can he successfully stretch out another furlong in distance for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby?

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ADMIRE DAYTONA

Japanese raider Admire Daytona displayed unwavering tenacity when taking his game on the road to the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan in Dubai. Facing fierce homestretch challenges from a pair of rivals, Admire Daytona gamely held on along the inside to prevail by a nose.

Another international excursion is on the horizon for Admire Daytona. He’s the top points earner on the European/Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby, and the Kentucky Derby (G1) beckons. Admire Daytona has already proven himself racing 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) in the UAE Derby, and stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby shouldn’t be an issue.

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GOSGER

The final leg of the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby was the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, in which maiden winner Gosger successfully stepped up in class to win by two lengths.

The victory earned Gosger 20 qualification points toward the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1), which will in all likelihood prove insufficient to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. But the other two Triple Crown races—the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1) and 1 1/4-mile Belmont (G1)—could certainly be in the cards for Gosger. His pedigree suggests he’ll relish stretching out over classic distances.

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Madaket Road

We know Madaket Road has speed. On the Road to the Kentucky Derby, he employed pacesetting tactics to finish second in the Rebel (G2) and fourth in the Florida Derby (G1), earning a spot in the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate.

But does Madaket Road have the requisite stamina to race 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby? His lone win came in a six-furlong sprint, and his pedigree suggests classic distances might be a little longer than ideal.

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Baeza

A gallant runner-up finish in a strong renewal of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) has stamped Baeza as a compelling candidate for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Baeza’s credentials extend beyond his promising racing record. A stellar pedigree geared toward success in Triple Crown races cements the bay colt as an exciting prospect.

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RENDER JUDGEMENT

The 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) is one of the toughest horse races to win. A combination of speed and stamina is necessary to outrun as many as 19 rivals to the Churchill Downs finish line.

When analyzing the pedigrees of prospective Kentucky Derby contenders, bettors often find themselves asking: “Does this horse have enough stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles?” Less frequently, a different question is asked: “Does this horse have enough speed to compete in a fast-paced 1 1/4-mile race?”

That’s the question bettors must answer when analyzing the chances of Render Judgment, who has recorded top-five finishes in the Blue Grass (G1), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Virginia Derby, and Gun Runner S. on the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby. His pedigree suggests he’ll stay 1 1/4 miles without issue, but does the stretch-running colt have enough speed to win an ultra-competitive race like the Kentucky Derby, or will he get outsprinted early and find himself with too much ground to close?

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NEOEQUOS

Speed is a strong suit for Neoequos. He set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) and pressed the tempo in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), ultimately finishing third in both of those Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers.

But does Neoequos have the stamina to stretch out over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? He lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in both his Kentucky Derby qualifiers, hinting that classic distances might be farther than he wants to run.

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