Free Jackpot 5 Analysis for Saturday, September 28

Jackpot 5 09/28/2013


1st JP5 6f Non-graded 2yo, Purse: $85,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
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8  Run for Logistics8/5  Top pick and horse to beat from the Plesa barn has run very well in each lifetime run, including stakes placings in two straight, and we think he looms a huge chance in the first race of this sequence. Dark bay son of Bernstein began his career with a dynamic maiden win at Monmouth and proved capable of rating some last time when third behind a nice pair in the Sapling (G3). Drawn well onm the outside, the Eddie Plesa charge should be prompting the pace throughout and taking over late.
7  Tea's Two Step10/1  $30,000 son of Two Step Salsa overcame a poor start and won in a fine showing of courage at first asking, and was flattered when the third place finisher came back to win out of the race. April foal was a bit of a surprise in that one but earned a solid Speed number and could improve for a conditioner at 12% with a maiden winner most recently. David Braddy pupil proved he can win from off the pace and could get a nice pace set up beneath Fernando Jara.
1  Macho Trini4/1  Prime Power leader from the barn of David Fawkes was unbeaten in a pair of runs on the dirt prior to a fourth-place finish most recently on the lawn in a stakes run from a tough post, and the son of Macho Uno gets the rail today. Kentucky-bred dark bay has big early speed for his post along the rail for this one and was a debut winner here, so we know he can handle the oval. Barn 31% with a beaten favorite most recently.
5  Bluegrass Derby3/1  Once beaten son of Bluegrass Cat has run big in each of his three lifetime races and surely merits attention in this spot. Luis Duco trainee was a fine stakes second two back and a nice allowance winner most recently, and has the speed to force the issue from the opening bell. Prime Power 3rd draws well and should always be in the mix under Olivero; barn 16% with a winner last time.

2nd JP5 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,800. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
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8  Must Be Love4/1  Logical player from the Fawkes barn has run just twice since October and could peak here third time out in 2013. Five-year-old mare by Whywhywhy is by a good turf sire and the bay owns a trio of wins on the lawn, with an additional pair of placings on this turf from as many tries. Kentucky-bred was a big second here two back under similar conditions, and any improvement off of that could find this one in the winners circle today. Jara rides and is winning at a 45% rate for this barn last 60 days.
3  Just Blessed3/1  Bay filly by Pure Precision will make her first run since being claimed by Maragh and just second off the layoff for a conditioner at 26% off the claim. Two-time local winner burned some money when third last time but still showed her ability, and we like her more on firm ground, especially in this field. Versatile Florida-bred will surely be in the hunt early on and rates a big chance beneath Worrie.
10  Pretty Heiress6/1  Prime Power second from the barn of Ralph Ziadie ran a fine second in her debut for this outfit last time and seems poised to have a nice impact on this field making her grassy debut in this one. Sophomore by Wildcat Heir is by a 16% grassy sire and has the right running style and post for this dash, and has finished first or second in eight straight. Consistent sort will be in the mix early and deserves inclusion in the sequence.

3rd JP5 5 1/2f (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,000. 5:06/( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9),$0.50 Pick 5 (races 7-11) (15% takeout)
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5  Great Red Beauty9/2  Daughter of decent turf sprint sire Greatness earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when fifth in an allowance over five furlongs here three weeks ago after pressing the early pace and is also first on Back Speed. Trainer David Kassen has won with 16% of his runners at this meet and wins with 14% of his starters on grass and filly has speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with Emmanuel Esquivel in the saddle.
2  Devout Diva5/1  BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a closing third place finish at this level on the main track over five furlongs in late August for trainer Ingrid Mason who wins with 17% of her runners in claiming races. Daughter of Holy Bull will make her first start on grass in which situation Mason wins with 13% of her starters and filly could get a good trip stalking what should be a solid early pace with Chris Emigh retaining the mount.
1  Queenie's Gold10/1  Three-year-old has a record of 3-1-1-1 on this turf course and comes off a second place finish over five furlongs here as the favorite in mid-September. Daughter of Tapit is from the barn of Larry Rivelli who wins with 22% of his runners that were beaten as the favorite in their last start and who has won with 27% of his starters at this meet. Chestnut can be running from off the pace with Noel Vigil in the irons.
3  Cam and Con's Girl8/1  Dark bay gave way after pressing the pace in an allowance over the course and distance in her latest and has a record of 3-1-1-0 sprinting on grass. Trainer John Good wins with 13% of his runners on turf and with 21% in claiming races and daughter of 15% grass sire Bernstein has speed and can be in the early mix with Edgar Perez up but does lose previous rider Esquivel to the top selection.

4th JP5 1 1/8m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $70,300. ( 5:27)/ 4:27/ 3:27/ 2:27
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta
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2  Agawa3/1  Malcolm Pierce trainee made a big late run to win going away at the maiden ranks last time and rates a big shot today in his debut with winners. Bay filly by Curlin got a bit of a breather following that run and shows five morning drills to stay fit for this for a conditioner who is good across the board. Prime Power 3rd has yet to show any early speed, so we assume she will try and rally from well back early under da Silva, 29% for this barn last 60 days.
9  Two to Tango4/1  Chestnut filly by Tapit ran easily the best race of her life when dominating a maiden field on the main oval by more than eight lengths, and she could be any kind in making her turf debut on this occasion. $125,000 auction purchase is surely coming to hand in advance of this for trainer Brian Lynch, and she has a touch of turf breeding for a conditioner at a solid 18% with a maiden winner last time out. Luis Contreras rides; looms large in her second route outing.
4  She's Popular7/2  Prime Power queen from the always dangerous barn of Reade Baker was never a threat but did make up a bit of ground in the lane of the Colleen S. (G3) last time, and this lass should appreciate the class relief in this spot. Dark bay filly by Badge of Silver broke her maiden on this oval two back and could fire second off the short layoff for an outfit that wins at a 20% in the allowance ranks. Emma Jayne will ride and is 31% for this barn last 60 days.

5th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $39,000. 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)
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4  Rocking Hall6/1  Son of Grade One turf winner Showing Up looked very promising when breaking his maiden in his turf debut at Keeneland last fall but has been well beaten in his two subsequent starts at this meet. Colt did show more in his latest when making a brief mid-race bid and will have blinkers added here by trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 22% of his runners third time off a layoff and who has won with 29% of his starters at this meet. Chestnut posted a four furlong work in 48 seconds ten days ago and may be reaching his best form again and, with tactical speed, can get a good trip near the front from the start under Channing Hill who won with 28% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
6  Hungry Wildcat7/2  Five-year-old has found a home on this turf course winning five of fifteen including a starter allowance by three lengths in his latest. Son of Margie’s Wildcat is from the barn of Eduardo Rodriguez who wins with 18% of his runners that won their last start and who has won with 13% of his starters this meet and gelding can be a contender from off the pace with Kent Desormeaux opting to remain aboard but will face better than he has before here.
2  Peso8/1  Gelding faded to finish seventh at this level and distance here in his latest in August when making his second start after a short break but has a record of 12-3-3-0 on the Arlington turf course. Trainer Michele Boyce has won with 18% of her runners this meet and wins with 26% third time off a layoff and son of Exchange Rate has some tactical speed and can be in good position from the start with Francisco Torres taking the mount.
7  Dancing Rock9/2   Dark bay has not been seen since winning here in early August after stalking the early pace and now has a record of 10-3-1-2 on this turf course. Son of Battle Star is first on BRIS Current Class and is trained by Frank Kirby who wins with 14% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and gelding can be tracking the early leaders under Emmanuel Esquivel who won with 28% of his rides for the barn in the last 60 days.