Good Magic | Horse Profile
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Good Magic (Horsephotos.com)
Good Magic Profile
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings: $1,838,400
Last Updated April, 2018
Owner: e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Curlin – Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun
Recent Finish: 1st, Blue Grass Stakes, G2 (4/7/18)
Notable Wins: Blue Grass (G2), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
Good Magic has raced five times at five different race tracks. His two wins were in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in November, where at 11-1 odds, he drew away swiftly in the stretch to win by more than 4 lengths over Solomini and the heavy favorite Bolt d’ Oro. That win followed a close runner-up finish the month prior to winner Firenze Fire and 3 lengths better than Enticed. After four months off, his sophomore season started with a 3rd place finish as the heavy 3-5 favorite in the 15-horse Fountain of Youth behind long shot winner Promises Fulfilled. But Good Magic responded in the Blue Grass Stakes with a commanding stretch run to win as the 7-5 favorite and hold sway over Flameaway.
Good Magic posted a BRIS Speed and Class Rating of 98 in his recent two races, the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass. His career best BRIS was 105 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Speed measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. Class measures competition within each race.
Good Magic is one of the expected contenders in the Kentucky Derby, and the $1 million yearling purchase in 2016 will be matched against a number of talented and speed horses. One negative with Good Magic is he does not dictate his own circumstances but has to react to the others. The Kentucky Derby usually has a strong, contested pace and he has shown a high cruising speed.
Key Speed Figures and Stats for Good Magic
- Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Champion 2-year-old colt
- Final 3/8 mile time in the Blue Grass :38.27 seconds
- Best BRIS Speed and Class Rating of 105 in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
- Trainer Chad Brown is 0-for-15 in two turn races at Churchill Downs
Running style can have a significant impact in the Derby with less speed horses that are clearly distance-challenged. Having some sort of tactical speed has become significant to success in the Kentucky Derby. Good Magic has generally been a middle of the pack runner with the ability to rate and run late. He’s flashed some early speed, but will likely be buying his time mid-pack looking to make his move at a stronger pace.
Horses that are finishing strongly at the end of their prep races are more likely to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ miles) than horses that are tiring at the end of their prep races. Each of the last six Kentucky Derby winners – and 16 of the last 21 – ran the last three-eighths of their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds. Good Magic’s final 3/8 mile time was :38.27 in the Blue Grass Stakes, and that race and track favored stretch runners and deep closers.
Good Magic has shown he can travel and both win and compete well at various race tracks. He’ll make his debut at Churchill Downs for the Derby, so follow how he’s working and training over the track leading up to the race. Analyze other factors like the strength of the race he’s exiting, which was not strong in the Blue Grass, along with race shape, 10-furlong pedigree and race day odds and value.
Kentucky Derby Thoughts by John Mucciolo
Good Magic was a $1 million yearling purchase at Keeneland in 2016, and he showed why in his juvenile season. Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Curlin was second in a Saratoga maiden debut and was then put in with the best of his generation, facing 11 foes in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.
Chestnut colt made a big move on the outside in the Champagne to lead late, eventually finishing a stout second. He rebounded from that in a big way at Santa Anita in November when storming home by 4 ¼ lengths that led to his Eclipse Award.
Good Magic kicked off his sophomore campaign when an even third in the Fountain of Youth (G2). That defeat seemed to sway much of the public off of the colt, though his decisive Blue Grass triumph got him back on track for the Kentucky Derby.
From a pedigree standpoint Good Magic should relish the 1 ¼-mile distance presented to him at Churchill Downs. Being by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare screams stamina. And his running style seems ideal, too.
Athletic three-year-old is not the biggest of animals, but his action is flawless and he runs professionally every time out. Good Magic was swift enough to challenge for the lead at six furlongs in his debut and his gate presence could separate him from many of his counterparts in the Kentucky Derby.
In the Blue Grass, Good Magic was placed wherever he was asked from the break. And his 1 ½-length winning margin does not tell the entire story. He was never going to lose that race.
I never lost confidence in Good Magic and I view him as a prime Kentucky Derby contender. He peaked in a third start in 2017, and I expect the same as he vies to become the third horse to win both the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby (Street Sense , Nyquist ).
Good Magic is a no-brainer to me. The resume of Chad Brown’s checks a lot of boxes, including a Classic score when Could Computing bagged the Preakness (G1) in 2017. Colt has all the ingredients to thrive next Saturday – foundation, pedigree, human connections, etc. Good Magic could surely give Brown his first Kentucky Derby trophy.
I believe that Good Magic will be prominent for much of the Kentucky Derby and will finish in the top-three.