Jackpot 5 Analysis – 01/03/2014

Jackpot 5 01/03/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 73 Low 66.


1st JP5 6f Clm $6,250 4yo and up, Purse: $10,500. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Swidgen 9/5   Dark bay son of Bandini goes first off the claim in this one and looks like lone speed as the one to beat. Tom Schell acquisition has finished first or second in four of seven outings on this oval and appears to have this field at his mercy with his big pace edge in a field with mostly closers signed on. Florida-bred tops the field in Prime Power and is capable of running huge on his best days. Gomez will be sending this one and is 21% for the barn last 60 days.
8   Antonacci 6/1   Five-year-old son of Yes It's True has some pace and will be the one with first run on the pacesetter in here. Dark bay gelding will make his first run for Carrasco in this spot and draws outside, which might actually be a good thing in this spot. Kentucky-bred will likely be in second early, and if the top pick tires, he could surely be the one under Zayas, at a fair price to boot. Worth including.
3   Fly South 2/1   Chris Gatis trainee ranks 2nd in Prime Power in the field and and has won or placed in seven straight outings, all on this oval. Gelded son of Early Flyer is a three-time winner on this strip and comes into this one with good form for a barn having a nice meeting and also 25% with a beaten favorite most recently. Chestnut Texas-bred has consistent tactical speed and should be in good range as the field turns for home in this questionable field. Must use.

2nd JP5 6f Clm $5,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $9,600. 4:46/ 3:46/( 2:46)/ 1:46
$1exacta /$1 Trifecta /.10 Superfecta /.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Yodelin' Angel 8/5   Chestnut mare by Siwss Yodeler is one of two strong entries for 34% conditioner Justin Evans and gets the outer draw in this one to aid Eikleberry to see how the pace unfolds early on. Morning line choice has been first or second in four straight in a fine form cycle, including a big run with a lot better here most recently, and could be a single in the sequence on the class drop. Top Average speed, jockey/trainer 37% last 60 days. Expect the five-year-old to be in the mix early on.
1   Bored to Death 7/2   Chestnut daughter of Borrego comes off a game score with similar at Zia and looms large today in making her local debut for conditioner Justin Evans, 34% at this meeting and 26% with a winner last time out. Six-year-old mare gets a nice draw on the rail off the short break and will likely save ground a few lengths off the tempo before being asked for her best in this one beneath the guidance of Rosendo. Kentucky bred is worth including as the Prime Power second.
5   Red for Certain 4/1   Michael Barber trained daughter of Red Bullet has been pretty sharp in a pair of runner-up finishes in succession and could be a big danger with a forward move on this occasion. Six-year-old gray showed an affinity for this oval in her local debut in advance of this and has a nice turn of foot that could have her pounce if the pace is fast and contested. Florida-bred hails from a solid barn at 17% with claiming types, and this mare could be moving best late under Jimmy Coates.
3   Expeditiously 10/1   Long shot contender looks like the pace of the race and could be the one to catch at a price. Blake Rust trainee hasn't won since February but did so on this main strip and has an edge early on in this field lacking a ton of depth. Dark bay daughter of Offlee Wild could be a big number third time off the layoff, and is worth a flier on some tickets as a separator of sorts.

3rd JP5 1m 70 Yards MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $45,000. 4:52/( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Silent Ruler 9/5   Colt earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when disqualified after passing the post first at this level and distance here in mid-December in his first start at Fair Grounds. Son of Roman Ruler is a half brother to two winners and is trained by Keith Desormeaux who has won with 15% of his runners at this meet and who wins with 14% of his starters in maiden special weight events. Dark bay can be running from off the pace with Rosie Napravnik remaining aboard.
4   Treaty Oak 3/1   Filly facing colts is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and comes off a second place finish at Churchill over a mile and a sixteenth after being prominent from the start in her second career outing. Trainer Al Stall has won with 16% this meet and wins with 21% of his starters in maiden special weights and daughter fo War Chant is a half sister to four winners and can be near the front from the start with Florent Geroux up.
1   Xtra Luck 9/2   Son of Exchange Rate earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when fourth behind the top selection after leading early here in his second outing and is a half brother to three winners. Dark bay is from the barn of Danny Pish who wins with 28% of his runners making their second start at a route distance and $75K two-year-old purchase can be on or near the lead from the start breaking from the rail with Roman Chapa retaining the mount.

4th JP5 1m 70 Yards MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $23,500. 5:12/ 4:12/( 3:12)/ 2:12
.50 Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11) $1exacta /$1 Trifecta /.10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   I'll Be a Legon 2/1   Prime Power leading son of Attila's Storm draws widest in this field and looks like one of the main players in this group in his local debut. Fred Danley pupil is the first out of this dam and has finished second in back to back outings at Zia, both at a route of ground since removing the Lasix. New Mexico bred ran into a monster last time after leading early, but did stay on for the place spot more than 9 lengths clear of third, and we have a hunch this will be the one to run down in the lane. Barn 21% with a beaten favorite last time, Gomez has the assignment and will have the sophomore in it early on.
2   Desert Mystery 5/1   Gelded son of Desert Gold has improved his Speed number in each lifetime start and we would hate to omit an improving sort in this weak spot. Sophomore New Mex-bred ran his best we think last time when third in his route debut, and he gets a nice slot to save ground early on and perhaps challenge the favored top pick in the lane if that one tires some. Joel Marr is a solid 23% route conditioner who is also 20% with the 46-90 day layoff, and we like the recent pair of morning spins this one put in leading into this event. Chance.
3   Quinton's Who 7/2   'Other' Marr charge has looked like a horse that might want a bit more ground after some even outings in sprints, and he would not be a total shock in this spot. Chestnut three-year-old is kin to four winners from five to race, one of the stakes variety, and comes in fresh for a trainer who is more than capable at 20% first time in a route event. We like that Juarez, who is 24% for this outfit as of late, will ride, and we envision this three-year-old being a lot closer to the pace early on.

5th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) Alw 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $46,000. 5:22/( 4:22)/ 3:22/ 2:22
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Happy Everafter 9/2   Daughter of Grand Slam earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when second at this level and distance here in mid-December in her second start after a short break and now has a record of 3-1-2-0 sprinting on grass. Trainer Grand Forster wins with 17% of his runners third time off a layoff and with 15% of his starters on turf and four-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start with Brian Hernandez retaining the mount.
3   Tipthetrolleygirl 4/1   Four-year-old is first on BRIS Prime Power and earned top ranking on Late Pace Last Race when closing to finish fourth over a mile on the main track in mid-December when making her second start after a short break. Daughter of good turf sprint sire Put It Back is trained by Brad Cox who wins with 16% of his runners on grass and who won with one of his first five starters at this meet. Filly may find a solid early pace here to help her closing runstyle be effective with Ricardo Santana up.
2   Miss Brown Sugar 6/1   Filly was claimed by Tom Amoss when finishing fifth on the main track here in December after leading early and hit the board in two of her three previous tries on grass. Dark bay could be better on turf being by Big Brown whose runners win 15% of their starts on the surface and Amoss wins with 33% first off the claim and with 23% switching from dirt to grass. Four-year-old has early speed and can be forwardly placed from the start under James Graham who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
10   Rare Penny 6/1   Chestnut comes off a maiden breaking win over the course and distance in early December when making her first start after a short break and is a half sister to two other winners on grass. Daughter of Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Al Stall who wins with 27% of his runners that broke their maiden in their last start and improving filly can be a contender running from off the pace with Rosie Napravnik opting to remain aboard.