Jackpot 5 Analysis 01/04/2014

Jackpot 5 01/04/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 74 Low 73.


1st JP5 1m Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $65,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Light Bringer 5/1   Top pick by Northern Afleet draws on the outside in this well matched field, and we'll give a slight edge to the Will White pupil. Prime Power queen comes off a nice allowance score after facing stakes foes in three prior tries leading up to that, and the sophomore miss has the early pace and closing kick to track the pace and be a looming danger at the top of the lane. Barn, which is 31% for the meeting, is 21% with a winner last time out and Jonathan Gonzales will be in the irons.
2   Raising Passion 6/1   Prime Power second had a fine prep for this one with a big allowance second and could be the one with another move in the right direction in this one. Chestnut filly by Limehouse has shown nice improvement since an unplaced debut run and her last was very encouraging for a 15% sprint to route conditioner. Zayas has the assignment and should have this one near midpack early on and doing his best work on this one in the lane. Chance at a fair price.
1   Flutterby 5/2   Recent stakes winner from the Bozzo barn draws the inner post in the field and rates a logical chance in this one. Chestnut filly by Congrats has very good early speed and is bred to handle this distance for a conditioner who is capable off of this type of layoff and having a decent meeting at 16% here. Florida-bred could be very dangerous if she clears early on beneath Luca Panici.
7   Spangled Banner 3/1   Bay filly by Tiz Wonderful finally broke through at Tampa last time in a powerful maiden tally and the consistent sort could be the one in here with another step in the right direction. Eoin Harty pupil has run well in all four lifetime starts and handled the dirt just fine, so we expect this one to make the class rise with relative ease as a big late player in this group. Bay filly goes for a barn at a fine 23% with a winner last time out and could be moving best of all in the lane.

2nd JP5 1m Non-graded 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $60,000. ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Coup 5/2   2012 Hilltop S. winner burned a lot of money last time when a good third we thought in advance of this, and the daughter of Empire Maker makes sense in this one. Bay five-year-old was very wide last time and it was also just her second outing in 18 months, so we give her a pass a bit and consider her a must use in this one for a top barn with Victor Lebron riding. Expect this one to stalk the pace and be a menacing figure as the top pick turning for home.
6   Truly Marie 5/1   In-form daughter of Hard Spun is going better than ever right now and was a four length romper in her bow on this oval last time, for 43% meet conditioner Tevis McCauley. Kentucky-bred four-year-old has shown nice improvement in a pair since joining this barn and has room for improvement for sure, especially stretching out some with a pedigree that should work just fine at this trip. Dean Sarvis will ride and is a sharp 3-for-6 for this barn last 60 days.
7   Moon Philly 3/1   Multiple stakes winning daughter of Malibu Moon is a question mark on the all weather today but has a ton of class and must be considered for this sequence for conditioner Ben Colebrook, after the lass was purchased for $225,000 in November. Bay mare sports a fine 5-3-2-0 mark at this trip and should be fresh and also is capable of running well off of works, which includes a recent bullet on a similar Polytrack oval at Keeneland last time. Anthony Stephen will guide the win player.
1   Dreamin Big 6/1   Six-year-old daughter of Pure Prize gets a fine draw on the rail and exits a fine stakes romp at one turn on this oval for Lauer, who is 40% from a limited number of starers at this meeting. Dark bay lass responded to the layoff in advance of her last and we think she is a major player right back even at this trip, where she is at 1-for-2. Indiana-bred has been first or second in 20 of 26 lifetime runs and must be considered in the very least today.

3rd JP5 About 1m (Turf) Clm $25,000 4yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Punctual Jeff 4/1   Son of 13% grass sire More Than Ready earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when closing strongly to narrowly miss over seven and a half furlongs here last month when claimed by Emile Schwandt. Five-year-old now has a record of 14-2-5-5 lifetime on turf and Schwandt wins with 13% of her runners first time off the claim and with 18% of her starters on grass. Chestnut can be running late with Chris Landeros in the saddle.
2   At the Pulpit 6/1   Five-year-old has a record of 8-1-1-3 on this turf course and comes off a third place finish over seven and a half furlongs here in mid-December in his first start since July. Trainer Michelle Lovell wins with 14% of her runners second time off a layoff and with 19% of her starters overall on grass and son of Pulpit has some tactical speed and can be stalking the early leaders with Brian Hernandez retaining the mount.
1   Foolhardy 6/1   Gelding earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when winning over nine furlongs at Hawthorne in late October and has now won three of his eight lifetime starts on grass. Son of Leading the Parade will make his first start for trainer Tom Amoss who wins with 28% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 27% of his starters at this meet. Bay posted a four furlong work in 48 2/5 eight days ago and can be a contender running from off the pace under Mark Guidry.
8   Coach Royal 3/1   Bay is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 33 and comes off a narrow loss in an allowance at Laurel in early November. Son of 13% turf sire Lemon Drop Kid has won two of his fifteen starts on grass and will make his first start for trainer Bret Calhoun who wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 28% of his starters at this meet. Five-year-old posted a five furlong work in 1:00 1/5 in late December and, with some tactical speed, can be in good position from the start under Miguel Mena who won with 34% of his rides for the barn in the last two months.

4th JP5 1m MdnSpWt 3yo Fillies, Purse: $21,000. ( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Super Hi Five
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Sommerville Miss 5/1   Rowena Beck trainee owns the top Average Speed and Prime Power in the field and was a fine third in her debut going a mile, in what we thought was a very positive showing out of the box. Chestnut filly by The Daddy has eight winning siblings from nine to race, and goes for a conditioner at 17% second time going long. Sophomore miss should be in the mix once again and will be very tough with a step forward under Adam.
10   Diamonds for Gi Gi 4/1   Chestnut filly by Majestic Warrior draws wide in this field but comes off a fine try when second sprinting on this oval with similar and looms a danger first time going long, bred to do so. Sophomore filly sits in 2nd in Prime Power in the field and draws wide once again with a rider change to Ben Creed, and the May foal has a pair of winning siblings from two to run. Expect the Texas-bred to be in the first or second flight early and a danger turning for home.
2   Skydeck 5/2   Chestnut daughter of Curlin was outrun in a sprint debut on this oval, but was well bet and has every right to improve second time out for conditioner Mike Maker, Kin to eight winners, including one graded heroine, the filly will run with blinkers on as the Prime Power third for a trainer who always runs well here and is 26% adding shades and 20% first time in a route race. Victor Lebron ride and is 40% for this outfit last 60 days.

5th JP5 1m 70 Yards Alw 4yo and up, Purse: $41,000. 5:25/( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Danny T 5/2   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when closing fast to finish a close third at this level over six furlongs here in late November and has a record of 4-1-0-2 at today's distance. Son of Yonaguska posted a four furlong work in 49 seconds flat here since his last start for trainer Andrew Ney who wins with 11% of his runners going from a sprint to a route and who won with two of his first ten starters at this meet. Gelding can be running from off the pace under Richard Eramia who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
3   Uncle Red 8/1   Four-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when third at this level and distance after setting the early fractions here in mid-December and will make his second start for trainer James Hodges. Son of Brahms posted a four furlong work in 48 2/5 four days ago for Hodges who wins with 17% of his runners in allowance events and gelding may be the one to catch here with James Graham riding.
7   Yonadixie 3/1   Son of Yonaguska is first on BRIS Prime Power and earned top ranking on Speed Last Race when second at this level and distance in December and has now hit the board in both of his two starts at Fair Grounds. Four-year-old is traiend by Sam Breaux who wins with 11% of his starters in allowance events and who has won with 15% of his runners since the beginning of 2013 and gelding can be running late with Mark Guidry retaining the mount.