Jackpot 5 Analysis – 01/10/2014


Jackpot 5 01/10/2014



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1st JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) Clm $25,000 4yo and up, Purse: $24,000. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Amanecer de Oro 3/1   BRIS Prime Power selection has a lifetime record of 4-1-0-1 on grass and comes off a well beaten effort in the Louisiana Sprint Stakes here in mid-December when making his first start since August. Son of Afternoon Deelites is also first on Average Class Last 3 and posted a four furlong work in 47 4/5 since his last start for trainer Steven Duke who wins with 20% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 16% switching from dirt to turf. Six-year-old has tactical speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with good turf rider James Graham in the saddle.
1   Beckyboy 6/1   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when closing to finish fifth at this distance in mid-December in his first start since August and has won two of his fourteen lifetime starts on grass. Trainer Morris Nicks wins with 19% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 19% of his starters in claiming events and son of Suave can be a contender running from off the pace under Jamie Theriot who won with one of his last nine rides for the barn.
10   Southern Mister 8/1   Son of Yonaguska has a record of 5-1-1-2 on grass and comes off a third place finish on dirt in an allowance at Delta Downs in mid-December. Four-year-old is from the barn of Sam Breaux who wins with 12% of his runners switching from dirt to turf and who has won with 15% of his starters at this meet and gelding can be running from off the pace under Mark Guidry who won with one of his last four rides for the stable.
4   Afleet in Dixie 8/1   Gray earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when winning on the main track here in December defeating easier in his second start after a short break and finished third in his one previous try on turf. Son of 13% grass sire Northern Afleet is trained by James Hodges who wins with 21% of his runners third time off a layoff and, with early speed, gelding can be forwardly placed from the start with Rosie Napravnik remaining aboard.
 

2nd JP5 6f Clm $30,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $26,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Pica 9/5   Chestnut comes off a second place finish as the favorite here at this level and distance when caught late after leading in the stretch while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race in her second start after an eight month break. Daughter of Consolidator is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Mike Stidham who wins with 24% of his runners third time off a layoff and with 22% of his starters in claiming events. Four-year-old can be stalking the early leaders with James Graham aboard.
1   Medium of Exchange 2/1   Dark bay was claimed by Greg Foley when third at this level and distance at Churchill in her latest in November and has now hit the board in seven of her eight lifetime starts. Foley wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and won with one of his last twelve starters first time off the claim and four-year-old can be a contender running from off the pace with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
4   Party Till Dawn 9/2   Daughter of Sky Classic earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when fading after showing speed over five and a half furlongs in an allowance here in mid-December. Trainer Grant Forster has saddled two winners from six starters so far at this meet and won with one of his last seven runners in a claiming event for the first time and four-year-old can be prominent early under Leandro Goncalves who won with two of his last five rides for the barn.
 

3rd JP5 6f MdnClm $16,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $17,000. 5:09/( 4:09)/ 3:09/ 2:09
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Glitteronthehiway 9/5   Drops in class and adds the blinkers in her first start back from the layoff and since being moved into the barn of trainer Cody Autrey after having not started since back in November when she put in a disappointing performance while facing $30,000 competition at Churchill in which she finished fourth, beaten by six lengths, after taking action at the windows. Autrey wins with 22% of his runners making their first start out of his barn and 18% of the time with runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days.
9   Denali Inspired 4/1   Last started back in October when she put in a respectable effort while facing $15,000 competition at Remington in which she pressed the pace early before fading to cross the wire in third, beaten by 3 3/4 lengths as the favorite. If she returns in that form today, she can be a player in this spot and trainer Timothy Martin wins with 31% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Alex Birzer gets the call and he wins 20% of the sprints he has a mount in.
10   Rusila 7/2   Returns to a level at which she can be a contender in her first start back from the layoff after having not started since back in May when she finished up the track while facing $50k competition at Churchill. The mare finished a solid second here while facing $25,000 competition in the start prior. Trainer Randy Morse has had success with runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and he will have Calvin Borel in the irons.
 

4th JP5 About 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $50,000 3yo Fillies, Purse: $46,000. 5:25/( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Teardrop 7/2   Daughter of Tapit is a full sister to Grade One winner and $1.6 Million earner Pyro and comes off a third place finish after showing speed over six and a half furlongs at Churchill in late November on the main track in her first start since June. Gray will make her first try on turf in which situation trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 14% of his runners and, with tactical speed, filly can be in good early position under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with 19% of his mounts for the barn in the past 60 days.
1   Haunted Heroine 4/1   Daughter of 15% turf sire will make her first start on grass and earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when breaking her maiden on the main track here last month in her third career start. Trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 15% first time on turf and with 20% of his runners that broke their maiden in their last start and gray can be a contender running from off the pace with Leandro Goncalves retaining the mount.
2   Shanon Nicole 3/1   Chestnut has hit the board on four of her six lifetime starts, all on turf, and comes off a second place finish at this level and distance here in December. Daughter of Majestic Warrior posted a four furlong work in 48 3/5 here a week ago for trainer Mike Maker who wins with 21% of his runners on turf and who has won with 13% of his starters at this meet and three-year-old can be near the front from the start with Rosie Napravnik remaining aboard.
10   Awesome Jill 6/1   Filly comes off a third place finish at this level and distance here last month after stalking the early leader in her first start since October. Daughter of promising young sire Pioneerof the Nile is from the barn of Michelle Lovell who wins with 14% of her runners second time off a layoff and who has won with 13% of her starters since the beginning of last year. Three-year-old can be forwardly placed early with Brian Hernandez retaining the mount.
 

5th JP5 6f Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $100,000. 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38
First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Street Story 5/2   May be sitting on a winning effort in her second start back from the layoff after putting in a solid effort last out while facing stakes competition at Fair Grounds in which she pressed the pace early but proved no match for the winner late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 6 1/2 lengths. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 20% of his runners making their second start off the layoff and with 21% of his runners shipping to another circuit. In addition, he wins 15% of the non-graded stakes races he has a runner in. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call and he wins 23% of the sprints he has a mount in.
2   Wicked Dixie 6/1   Makes her first start since her career debut at Churchill back in November when she put in a nice effort while facing maiden special weight competition in which she rallied from three lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by three parts of a length. A repeat of the BRIS Speed rating she posted in that effort would make her a contender in this spot and trainer William Fires wins 14% of the time with runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days. Jon Court gets the call.
3   More Than Beauty 8/5   Last started back in September when she put in a nice effort while facing $75k allowance/optional claiming competition at Churchill in which she took the lead early and improved her position to cross the wire 3 1/4 lengths clear of the field. The bay is in possession of the best Last Race BRIS Speed rating and she tops the field in BRIS Prime Power in addition to possessing the best BRIS Class rating. Trainer Cecil Borel wins with 13% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and with an equal percentage of his runners shipping to another circuit.
7   Xray Vision 6/1   Has hit the board in all five career starts thus far and that includes a couple of trips to the winner's circle. The filly exits a bit of a disappointing effort last out while going long versus stakes competition at Remington in which she pressed the pace early before fading late to cross the wire in third, beaten by five lengths. Trainer Lynne Chleboard wins 13% of the time with runners going from a route to a sprint and 14% of non-graded stakes races. Ramon Vazquez gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 18% win rate over the last 60 days.