Jackpot 5 Analysis - 03/09/2014


Jackpot 5 03/09/2014



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1st JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) AlwOClm $15,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $20,100. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 5-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Abelha Maestra 5/2   BRIS Prime Power selection will make her first start on grass and comes off a narrow loss on the main track as the favorite after leading in the stretch. Trainer Bernie Flint is having a good meet winning with 30% of his starters and wins with 14% of his runners first time on grass. Five-year-old is also first on Average Class Last 3 and, with early speed, can be involved from the start breaking from the rail with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
5   Gettem Up Girl 3/1   Chestnut has won two of her seven starts on grass and earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when closing from off the pace to win on the main track here last month. Daughter of 13% grass sire Belong to Me is trained by Tim Glyshaw who wins with 20% of his runners that won their last start and with 13% of his starters on grass and five-year-old can get a good trip running from off the pace here with Marcelino Pedroza retaining the mount.
4   Destiny's Runner 6/1   Mare has a record of 4-1-3-0 lifetime on grass and comes off an unplaced effort against better on dirt at Delta Downs in January. Trainer Karl Broberg wins with 28% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 18% switching from dirt to turf and daughter of Run Production has early speed and can be in the early mix under Chris Landeros who won with 21% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
2   Chica Silver 6/1   Filly finished unplaced in her latest over seven and a half furlongs but may have needed that start being her first outing since November and has a record of 10-2-0-4 lifetime on grass. Daughter of Catienus is trained by Armando De la Cerda who wins with 13% of his runners second time off a layoff and who has saddled two winners from ten starters at this meet. Filly can be closing late with James Graham in the irons.
 

2nd JP5 5 1/2f Clm $12,500 3yo Fillies, Purse: $13,500. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Starator 5/2   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when second here at this level over six furlongs when caught late after setting the early fractions in her third career start. Daughter of Intimidator is trained by Steve Asmussen who wins with 25% of his claimers and who has won with 20% of his starters at this meet and filly may be fastest early and tough to catch under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with 21% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
3   Marvelous Maddie 3/1   Filly is ranked first on BRIS Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and comes off a fading effort as the favorite behind the top selection after showing early speed. Daughter of Woke Up Dreamin has a record of 3-1-1-0 at Fair Grounds for trainer Joe Duhon who wins with 25% of his runners that were beaten as the favorite in their last start. Chestnut can be forwardly placed early under Chris Landeros but does not appear quite as speedy as the top selection.
1   Snowy Girl 6/1   Daughter of Gold Tribute comes off a sixth place finish at this level and distance here last month and has hit the board in one of two starts at Fair Grounds. Three-year-old is from the barn of Joe Duhon who wins with 12% of his runners in claiming events and who has won with 7% of his starters at this meet and filly may show early speed breaking from the rail with Robby Albarado remaining aboard.
6   Prissy Bele 7/2   Daughter of Yankee Gentleman comes off a four and a half length maiden breaking win from off the pace here at this distance last month when making her first start since December. Filly is trained by Blake Landry who wins with 10% of his runners in claiming events and who won with 10% of his starters since the beginning of the year and dark bay could get a good trip running from off the pace with Richard Eramia in the saddle today.
 

3rd JP5 6f MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $60,000. 5:14/( 4:14)/ 3:14/ 2:14
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Shathoor 5/2   Adds the bleeder today in his second career start after putting in a solid effort in his career debut in which he took the lead early but tired a bit late to cross the wire in fourth, beaten by four lengths. Trainer Daniel Pietz wins with 13% of his runners getting the bleeder and with 14% of his runners making their second career start. Channing Hill gets the call and he wins 14% of the sprints he has as mount in.
7   Bagg O'Day 3/1   Has finished second in both career starts thus far and exits a nice effort here last out while facing maiden special weight competition in which he stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 2 1/4 lengths. Trainer Steve Hobby wins 14% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in and 17% of the sprints. Alex Birzer gets the call and he wins 19% of the sprints he has a mount in.
11   Flat Irish 10/1   Returns from the layoff after having not started since back in January when he put in a disappointing performance in his career debut in which he finished a well beaten ninth as the favorite. The colt is capable of better second time out and trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 23% of his runners making their second career start. In addition, he wins with 21% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days and with 28% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite.
4   Declan's Fast Cat 6/1   Makes his first start since back in November when he put in a so-so effort while facing maiden special weight competition at Churchill in which he rallied from seven lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in fourth, beaten by 3 3/4 lengths. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 16% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and with 21% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 25% win rate over the last 60 days.
 

4th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) AlwOClm $40,000 4yo and up, Purse: $43,700. 5:25/( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Rugged 5/1   Gelding by 13% turf sire Distorted Humor is out of Grade One winner Composure and comes off a three quarter length win over the course and distance last month when making his first start since December. Four-year-old now has a record of 5-2-1-1 lifetime on grass and is trained by Louie Roussel who wins with 20% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 18% of his starters on grass. Bay appears to be improving and may get a good trip again running from off the pace under James Graham who won with three of his last eight rides for the barn.
7   Joe Hollywood 3/1   Son of Congrats finished second in two of his four previous starts on grass and was claimed by Karl Broberg when leading from the start to win over six furlongs on a sloppy main track here in his latest here five days ago. Broberg wins with 27% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 20% of his starters at this meet and six-year-old may be fastest early and the one to catch under Chris Landeros who won with 21% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
6   Take Heart 4/1   Five-year-old is ranked first on BRIS Back Speed and finished well to be second at this level and distance in his last last month when making his second start after a short break. Son of Lion Heart has recorded three runner-up finishes from four starters on the Fair Grounds turf course and is trained by Hugh Robertson who wins with 11% of his runners third time off a layoff. Bay can be a contender running from off the pace with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
2   Sir Applesolutely 5/1   Chestnut is first on BRIS Current Class closed to finish third after losing early ground when rearing at the start at this level and distance in his latest in mid-February and has now hit the board in both of his two starts on this turf course. Son of Henny Hughes is trained by Neil Pessin who wins with 12% of his runners in allowance events and with 11% of his starters on grass and five-year-old can be running into contention with Richard Eramia retaining the mount.
 

5th JP5 1 1/16mAlwOClm $40,000 4yo and up, Purse: $62,000. 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Carve 7/2   Moves into the barn of trainer Brad Cox in his first start back from the layoff after having not started since back in November when he put in a very nice effort in the Zia Park Derby in which he stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by only a half length. This one has hit the board in three of four starts here prior which includes two trips to the winner's circle and a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Cox wins with 21% of his runners making their first start out of his barn and with 17% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days. This one tops the field in BRIS Prime Power by over three points.
5   Proud Strike 3/1   Came back from the layoff last out with a nice effort while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Fair Grounds in which he rallied from 10 lengths off the pace but ran out of ground late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by only a head as the favorite. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 21% of his runners making their second start off the layoff and with 26% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 25% win rate over the last 60 days.
6   Avie's Quality 6/1   Moves from the synthetic to the dirt in his first start back from the layoff after having not started since back in November when he put in a respectable effort while facing allowance/optional claiming competition on the synthetic at Woodbine in which he attempted to rally from just off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in third, beaten by 4 1/4 lengths as the favorite. Trainer Josie Carroll wins 15% of the time with runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and 21% of the time with runners next out after being beaten as the favorite.
2   No Spin 5/1   Makes his first start for trainer Randy Morse today after being claimed last out while facing similar in an effort where he stalked the pace early but was no match for the winner late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. A repeat of that effort will make him a contender in this spot and Morse wins 13% of the route races he has a runner in. Calvin Borel gets the call and he wins 15% of the route races he has a mount in.