Jackpot 5 Analysis 08/17/2013

Jackpot 5 08/17/2013


1st JP5 1 1/4m (Turf) Grade I 3yo, Purse: $500,000. 5:23/( 4:23)/ 3:23/ 2:23
$2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 Pick 5 (races 8-12) ($100,000 Guaranteed Pool) (15% takeout)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Visiyani 12/1   Multiple Group 3 placed stakes winner will make his U. S. debut in this spot, and we'll tab the gray colt for the upset today. Son of Rock of Gibraltar is bred to run all day, and while he's been mainly a miler to this point, the French-bred colt could thrive going ten panels in this spot for expert conditioner Alain De Royer-Dupre, who is 2-for-7 with similar types of imports here. The well thought of colt got a nice morning spin on this main oval to acclimate to these surroundings, and we love that Christophe Lemaire retains the ride.
3   Rydilluc 9/2   Bay colt by Medaglia d'Oro didn't handle the soft going in the Virginia Derby (G2) most recently, but if we crossed a line through that effort, we'd be looking at the one to beat. Gary Contessa trainee had been a superb performer prior to his latest, winning his first four grass races in mostly facile fashion, and the colt has the early speed to be very close early on and get first run on the closers, which could be a big edge today. Bullet grass work should have this one on his toes beneath Edgar Prado.
7   Yeager 12/1   Euro import from the always dangerous Jeremy Noseda barn comes in with a pair of wins in succession versus lesser, but he is a rising sort and could be a major player in this one with another step in the right direction. Dark bay son of Medaglia d'Oro has been running from off the pace leading up to this but stretches out in trip, so it's possible that the sophomore colt will be a bit more forwardly placed in this one, while running with Lasix for the initial time. We never take this barn for granted and have to include this one at overlaid odds beneath Ryan Moore.
9   Jack Milton 3/1   Dark bay colt from the mighty barn of Todd Pletcher has been a model of consistency at a high level with five straight top three performances to kick off his career, including a close third in the VA Derby (G2) last time out. Sophomore son of War Front tops the field in Prime Power for an outfit having another fine summer, and this Grade 3 hero shows a trio of nice morning drills in preparation of this event while tabbing Joel Rosario to ride. Expect this one to be sitting in midpack early, with our lone concern being how the Kentucky-bred handles the ten furlong trip.

2nd JP5 1 3/16m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $750,000. 6:02/( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02
$2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (9-10) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 9-11),$0.50 twinspires.com Late Pick 4 (races 9-12)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Marketing Mix 2/1   Local favorite and last year’s runner-up has been spotless from a pair of tries in California in 2013 and could be rounding up to a peak showing third off the shelf for Tom Proctor. Five-year-old mare by Medaglia d’Oro has been first or second in nine of her last ten and always fires and one of the more talented and honest horses in training. We love both the post draw and tactical speed this mare possesses, that should give Gary Stevens all kinds of options going into the turns. The dark bay could get a dream trip tracking the pacesetter and get first run turning for home. We’ll side with this five-year-old.
4   Dank 7/2   Sir Michael Stoute will send out the impressive daughter of Dansili, who comes off a strong Group 2 score at the Curragh most recently. Improving four-year-old ran arguably her best race last time out and held up well when a close third behind Duntle two back in the Duke of Cambridge S. (Eng-G2), proving her class at this level. The import will get Lasix for the initial time, and whenever Stoute sends one this way, we take special notice. Ryan Moore has the assignment and will likely be stalking the pace to the top of the lane.
2   Duntle 3/1   Razor-sharp Euro invader makes her U. S. debut in this spot and comes off a fine second in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1) behind the highly touted and accomplished Elusive Kate. Group 2 heroine has been of model of class and consistency with six straight top two finishes leading up to this, and though she’s been a miler overseas, her running style and pedigree suggest that she will take to this elongated trip for conditioner David Wahcman. The chestnut daughter of Danehill Dancer has a dynamic turn of foot and would be no surprise beneath regular rider Wayne Lordan.
5   Gifted Girl 12/1   Four-year-old daughter of Azamour lacks the credentials of a few of these but has very good form and we don’t imagine she shipped here for nothing. Paul Cole pupil has run four big races in succession against a bit lesser, but we love improving types and she has the turn of foot to be a big menace late if the speed backs up at all. One-run closer will likely be well back early under pilot Tom Queally, and a top three finish is well within question for this lass.

3rd JP5 6f Clm $6,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $11,000. ( 6:25)/ 5:25/ 4:25/ 3:25
Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta,50 Cent Pick 3 (races 2-3-4) / 50 Cent Pick 4 (races 2-3-4-5)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   La Stupenda 5/1   Top pick from the high percentage barn of Brad Cox gets parked wide in the field but has some prior form and drops down to a very realistic spot in making her local debut. Four-year-old daughter of Flatter beat $8,000 foes at Churchill three back and finished a nice second since, so we’ll ignore her latest and expect a big bounce back from her today for a trainer at 26% with shippers. Dylan Davis will guide the top play and is 38% for this outfit last 60 days.
1A   Tap a Bay Yankee 5/2   Prime Power leader from the barn of Lynne Scace showed speed before tiring as the favorite when in with better most recently, and the gray filly by Tapit makes a lot of sense on the class drop for a conditioner at 23% with a beaten favorite last time. Kentucky-bred miss had finished second in two straight here while in with much better, and if she produces a top race, the field may be running for second. The filly is winless since joining this outfit, though she has never faced anything this easy, either.
2   Promise Me Joy 6/1   William Edwards pupil ran a big second last time here at the level and rates a big chance while securing the rail post for this affair. Chestnut filly by Kitten’s Joy is 2nd in Prime Power in the field for a barn with a 3-1-2-0 mark at the meeting, and this chestnut has a nice running style that should see her saving early ground along the fence and kicking on for home under Thomas Pompell, who is just 4% here at Indiana Downs. Makes some sense in here if the top ones falter.
7   Tawdry 4/1   Lon Wiggins trainee had a nice prep for this in a turf dash at Ellis in her debut for this barn, and the chestnut could produce a big one on this occasion for an outfit at 33% second start w/trainer. Chestnut daughter of Grand Reward has arguably the best turn of foot in the field and has been facing better for some time so the drop could move her forward some today with Peter Artieda in the saddle. Expect the mate to be relaxed early on and gearing up for her late run approaching the turn for home.

4th JP5 6f Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $60,000. 6:26/( 5:26)/ 4:26/ 3:26
Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Hud's Rebellion 3/1   Prime Power leader and potential horse to beat was a fine stakes second last time going two turns behind a fine runner, and the cut back in trip on a surface that he dons a 2-for-2 mark on could do the trick today. Andrew Leggio trainee is 4-for-8 at six panels, and though he lacks the credentials of a few of these, he’s peaking right now and the four-year-old chestnut could get a prefect trip from a few lengths off the likely fast early tempo. Corey Lanerie will guide the son of Ole Rebel, for a 25% sprint-route-sprint outfit.
14   Kissimmee Kyle 30/1   Al Stall trainee gets a long look in this one as an interesting long shot contender who was done no favors while securing the widest post in the field. Multiple stakes winner by Gold Tribute has been running almost solely on the lawn in stakes runs in advance of this, and cuts back to a dash and moves to the main oval, where the late runner could get a brutally fast pace to run into in the stretch. This barn is 29% here and a fine 31% in non-graded stakes, and smoked a bullet last time in preparing for his 2013 debut. Mark Guidry will be doing his best work late atop the seven-year-old.
12   Palmy Bay 5/1   Patrick Mouton pupil dons a fine 5-4-1-0 mark here at Louisiana Downs and the sophomore gets recognition from this corner as a win player at a price. Course specialist is a two-time stakes hero on this main strip, and while his form has not been great since, he was a dynamic allowance winner here two prior, earning a 102 Speed number, and he could be an overlay of sorts today. Solid barn is winning at a 22% clip here and we love the blazing :47 bullet half-mile move last week to get ready for this. Eramia rides and will be stalking the pace early on.
7   Lattin Devil 6/1   Prime Power 3rd from the barn of Jorge Lara ran into a monster last time when third at Evangeline against similar, but the dual stakes winner had won stakes in his previous pair of outings and we think he’s a major contender in this spot under Donnie Meche. Gelded sophomore by Latent Heat has very good speed and a strong turn of foot, and he has trained here all spring and summer, so we feel he will handle this oval with ease. Barn just 3% with shippers, but we still feel inclined to use the talented dark bay.

5th JP5 1 1/4m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $1,000,000. 6:44/( 5:44)/ 4:44/ 3:44
$2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (10-11) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 10-12)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   The Apache 6/1   Group 1 winner from the mighty barn of Mike de Kock didn’t really handle the footing at York last time when a well-beaten fourth in a fine field, but the bay surely needed one coming off a trio of runs and a layoff at Dubai, and he could be the one in here as our upset selection. Bay six-year-old has been a top performer for some time and we think the trip here will suit him perfectly under world class pilot Christophe Soumillon, who has fine experience on the South African-bred. We like that this one got a turf breeze here and has acclimated to his surroundings.
3   Hunter's Light 8/1   Saeed bin Suroor trainee came to hand in a big way in Dubai this spring which was capped by a fine tally in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (UAE-G1). Five-year-old is a multiple Group 1 winner who had a nice prep when third in a Group 1 test in Germany, and though he has done some of his best work on the all weather, we have a hunch that the son of Dubawi could peak if he gets a firm oval with which to work with. The chestnut will receive Lasix for the initial time and we expect him to be sitting in third or fourth early on behind a potential speed duel. Ryan Moore has the assignment.
6   Side Glance 12/1   Andrew Balding import has faced the best of the best overseas from a trio of 2013 races and should not be overlooked despite the big morning line price here. Dark bay gelding will be equipped with Lasix for his U. S. debut, and while he lacks the luster of a few of his rivals as of late, the son of Passing Glance has plenty of back class and he would be of no surprise for a heady barn. Regular rider Jamie Spencer will ride, and we expect this one to be forwardly placed in a race with some speed signed on. Chance at a price.
7   Indy Point 9/2   2012 Argentine Horse of the Year made a fine impression in his U. S. debut for conditioner Richard Mandella when rolling home a fine winner of the Wicker H. at Del Mar. Four-year-old colt by Indygo Shiner sports a fine 13-6-4-3 lifetime mark and proved his durability with 12 starts in his sophomore season in Argentina. The import topped a filed that would pale in comparison to this one, but it was used solely as a prep and Mandella is an expert at getting one ready to peak for a big event. Barn 27% with shippers, Gary Stevens rides and is 2-for-4 for this outfit last 60 days.