Jackpot 5 Analysis - 08/18/2013

Jackpot 5 08/18/2013


1st JP5 7fAlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $29,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Holy Invader 8/5   Top pick from the barn of Marty Wolfson makes his debut on this oval and first run since January, when earning a huge speed number on the lawn when a big second. Son of champion Invasor cuts back in trip to a distance that might be a tad shy of his best, but he owns speed and looks like the one to beat in this compact field for a conditioner who is 28% going turf to dirt. Four-year-old colt shows a nice string of morning drills leading up to this and should be especially tough if not left with much to do turning for home. Eddie Nunez rides.
1   Imperial Czar 3/1   Seven-time local winner gets a cozy rail draw for this and comes off a pair of solid tries at Gulfstream Park. Navarro pupil was a big winner here at the allowance level four back and seems the type who could appreciate some moisture in the ground, with a pair of big wins on wet ovals. High percentage barn is a fine 34% at this meeting and 2-for-3 going route to sprint, and we'd move him up on a sloppy or muddy oval. Angel Moreno has the assignment.
4   Rob the Cradle 4/1   Potential early leader has the speed to be up front early and the gelding has placed in both lifetime tries on this main oval. Five-year-old son of Philanthropist has some decent form coming in and may be unopposed from the start if sent hard under Manny Aguilar, 20% for this barn last 60 days. Expect the Prime Power 3rd to be a dangerous player at a fair price in the lane.

2nd JP5 5f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $28,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Pacific Trail 8/5   Horse to beat and Prime Power leader from the shedrow of David Fawkes rallied and just missed in running a winning race in defeat on this lawn in her debut, and the daughter of Grand Slam will be very tough with even slight improvement on this occasion. Bred for the lawn, the sophomore miss was very impressive and well backed in that first run and hails from a barn going well at the meeting and 17% with second time starters. Tons to like with Gallardo in the irons.
1   A La Folie 4/1   Third timer ships over after a pair of ro0ute runs at this level at Tampa and could be live with Manny Cruz in the irons. Four-year-old bay by Langfuhr is cut out to be a decent turf performer and goes for a barn that is 22% with shippers and 20% with this type of layoff. Garrison pupil drilled a bullet in advance of this and will likely be saving ground from off the pace before putting in her best run late. Top threat to our selection.
7   Without Guilt 3/1   Prime Power 2nd from the Ziadie barn has big early foot and could be the speed of the field at a fair price in this turf dash. Dark bay filly by good speed influence With Distinction cuts back after a pair of failed route tries, one of which was on the lawn, and the dark bay will be equipped with blinkers on this occasion which could make her more focused. We'll give this one a look and she could be a decent price alternative for those fishing.

3rd JP5 6f Clm $7,500 3yo and up, Purse: $10,500. 4:58/( 3:58)/ 2:58/ 1:58
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Vino Limbo Tango 3/1   Top pick from the powerful barn of Wayne Catalano drops off a win for a barn at 25% when doing so, and the son of Invisible Ink could thrive today from just off the early pace. A nice winner last time, the bay gelding was a solid maiden winner in his seasonal debut here three back and looks to be in a nice spot for this one for a trainer winning at a 32% rate here at Arlington Park. Channing Hill rides and has done good work for this barn here.
8   Ravin About Richie 7/2   Speedy son of Forest Grove beat similar at this venue three back and could be the speed of the speed while drawing inside another potential pace foe. Gelded four-year-old tired after going too fast early while dueling at Presque Isle, but the Larry Rivelli trainee has good experience here and will be very tough if he clears this group early on. This barn is strong at 26% here and Jeffrey Sanchez has the assignment, 25% for this outfit last 60 days.
11   Goldswish 5/1   Prime Power leader owns the top Average speed in the field but must overcome the widest post in order to take this field down. Scott Mullins trainee has been in fine form with four consecutive top three finishes in succession at this meeting, including a win while facing something like these three back, and a nice third in with better most recently. Gelded four-year-old by Suave has very good gate speed but doesn't need the early edge in order to win, and he has to be on the ticket. Kent Desormeaux has the assignment.
1A   La Pinata 6/1   Big class dropper from the barn of Moises Yanez faced $25,000 open foes most recently and should move forward with this type today. Gelded five-year-old by Gibson Country is a two-time winner on this Polytrack oval and has the speed to make him a formidable foe on his best days, which he p[roved four back with an eight length win here against much better competition. We're not in love with the dark bay, but respect his big speed and back class. Eddie Castro will pilot the Prime Power 3rd.

4th JP5 About 5f (Turf) MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $21,000. 5:21/( 4:21)/ 3:21/ 2:21 5:21/( 4:21)/ 3:21/ 2:21 5:21/( 4:21)/ 3:21/
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Synapse 5/2   Trainer Andrew Leggio is solid across the board and 17% debuting on the turf, so we'll give his pupil a look in this winnable race. Dark bay daughter of Fairbanks is out of a fine grassy performer and kin to a turf winner, in addition to not having missed a beat in the mornings since June. The March foal is still a bit of a wildcard and the early money could give us an idea of how she fares with the clockers, but we still consider her a must use in this one. Chris Landeros takes the reins on our upset pick.
9   Lexi's Love 7/2   Prime Power leader in this tricky field was a fine Trial S. third in his debut before being outrun by better last time, and the drop back in with maiden foes makes tons of sense today for trainer Alan Klanfer, who is 40% at the meeting and 25% first time on the green. Out of a stakes placed dam and bred to handle the lawn, this daughter of Big Top Cat has some tactical speed and a turn of foot, and we think this lass gets a fine post draw for her style, as she should be a bit closer early on in this spot. Randall Toups has the call and is 18% for this barn last 60 days.
2   Midway Dolly 10/1   Prime Power 2nd got a few for experience in her and we think she runs her peak race on this afternoon at a price. Shane Wilson conditioned daughter of Midway Road ran pretty evenly in an off the turf race last time and could prefer the green for a trainer at a fine 18% second time on the weeds and also winning at a decent 14% clip for the meeting. Regular pilot Rodriguez stays in the saddle and will likely be near midpack in the early stages.
10   Lovely in Lavender 8/1   Longshot first timer is by 14% debut turf sire Yankee Gentleman and by a broodmare sire at 16% with turf progeny, so we'll toss this one in the equation at a big number. Charles Hukill pupil brought $31,000 as a two-year-old in training this spring and shows a few solid morning works that could have her near fit with Guzman riding, who is 0-for-42 for this barn last 60 days. We like others more for the win, but this could be a key exotics piece underneath.

5th JP5 About 1m (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 5:29/( 4:29)/ 3:29/ 2:29
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Gaelico 4/1   Top pick from the Romans barn comes off the shelf and lands in a good spot near the rail, as he could be the one to lead the field all the way around the oval. Four-year-old colt by War Front has a touch of back class and though winless since last summer, the bay can run well fresh and we love his tactical edge on this occasion. Florida-bred has been training steadily in preparation of this run and will have Chris Emigh in the saddle for a 15% turf to dirt outfit; could be all alone on the front early.
10   Let's Call a Truce 3/1   Prime Power boss from the barn of Louie Roussell has won or placed in a trio of successive runs on this lawn at the level and will be closing best of all in here in all likelihood. Four-year-old son of Peace Rules has been very consistent for the better part of his career and has taken to this lawn, proving he can run on firm or turf with some give in it. The chestnut gelding will take back early and make one run beneath James Graham.
9   Mec Dancer 5/1   Capable sort from the Kirby barn owns three wins here and also the top Average speed in this field, and the five-year-old son of Orientate also has a bit of form entering this one. A nice second here two back on the firm followed a local win, and we'll forgive his last when he faced a runaway winner on the 'good' turf oval. Bay Kentucky-bred has a touch of tactical speed in a paceless race outside of the top play, and he could be near the third flight early under Cisco Torres. Worth using in a lot of facets.
3   Don't Slip 6/1   Tom Amoss trainee was a nice winner against conditioned foes on this lawn last time and faces a bit better in the open ranks. Gelded son of The Cliff's Edge showed vast improvement off of his first off the claim two back when failing to fire at Indiana Downs, and the bay has now won two of his last three for a fine barn at 30% with a winner last time out, and a sparkling 40% here with limited runners to this point. Late runner has a bit more tactical foot that some of his main foes, and he's in with a chance with a well timed ride beneath Esquiv'el.