Jackpot 5 Analysis - 08/23/2013

Jackpot 5 08/23/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 84 Low 80.


1st JP5 6f Clm $6,250 3yo and up, Purse: $11,500. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Wild Alley Cat 5/2   Prime Power second and top selection just missed last time when hanging a bit late, but did have a tricky voyage in chasing lone speed all the way to the wire last time, and if another could soften up the pacesetter, this five-year-old will increase his winning chance greatly. Son of Flower Alley has won or placed in 12 of 15 runs at Calder and seems to be in fine form right now for trainer Juan Arias, who sends him out second off the claim. The barn is cold at the meeting, but we see this dark bay taking over late in this spot.
3   Tri Polar 6/1   We loved the win last time by this capable son of Newfoundland and give him a big chance while rising in class some on this occasion. Seven-year-old gelding from the barn of Phillip Lee has very good tactical speed on an oval he dons six top three finishes from eight runs, and the Prime Power 4th will be in the mix from the opening bell. The Florida-bred should go off at a decent price on the rise and makes a lot of sense to us to kick off this wager.
4   Petch 2/1   Prime Power leader and horse to beat was ultra game last time in battling back after being passed and drops off a win for a conditioner at 29% when doing so. Chris Gatis pupil has won five times from 13 tries on this main oval and owns the top Average speed in the field for a conditioner who is having a nice run here at 22%. Seven-year-old son of Petionville could be the swiftest horse in the field and will be into the bit from the opening bell under Zayas.
2   El Kiwi 4/1   Four-year-old son of Werblin has won two of his past three, including a tally at this level three back, and the chestnut drops back down the class ladder as a player in this one. Florida-bred from the Tarabue barn has a solid turn of foot in a field with a few speedy types signed on, and with this post draw, could save ground early and make one run in the lane. The three-time local winner will have Diego Gomez in the irons and gearing up turning for home.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $28,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Brainy 4/1   Curtis Garrison trainee was a big second in the first level allowance ranks two back in her lone turf try to date, and the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid surely makes sense this afternoon. Chestnut filly, who is kin to four turf winners from as many to run, comes in off the layoff and could be fresh here for an outfit 19% off of this type of layoff and also 33% dirt to turf. The filly was flattered when the first and third place finishers out of that lone turf try won next time out, and she is a must use in this spot under Manny Cruz.
2   Miner's Tune 2/1   Seven-year-old daughter of Polish Miner was last seen a solid winner at Gulfstream Park and looms an obvious chance right back for Vitali, 23% here and 25% with a winner last race. Gray mare has never run here but is in good form with three straight top three runs, and we were impressed that the runner-up out of her last was seven clear of third. Bocachica has the ride on the stalker and is winning at a 29% clip for this outfit as of late.
3   Bamboo Stick 10/1   Wildcard daughter of Freud is bred top and bottom to thrive on the lawn and gets a long look in here in her debut with winners. Sophomore lass surely responded to the stretch out in trip with blinkers for the first time in preparation of this, when posting an 11-length maiden tally, and we think the New York-bred could ultimately be better on the lawn. The Wayar barn is 0-for-13 first time on the green, but at a likely big price, we wouldn't mind having this one on the ticket.
7   Pelipa 3/1   Prime Power queen goes first off the claim in this one for conditioner Eddie Plesa, who is 11% off the claim and a fine 24% for the meeting. Daughter of Indian Charlie owns a second on this strip from two grassy tries at Calder and showed more speed last time after being something of a one-run closer in leading up to that point. Bay filly has a nice turn of foot and could get a swift pace with at least two runners who seem likely to be sent, and we'd be foolish not to include the four-year-old.

3rd JP5 About 1 1/16m (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,000. 4:57/( 3:57)/ 2:57/ 1:57
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (3-4) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 3-5)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Atlantic Tap 5/1   Bay daughter of Stormy Atlantic takes a big class drop from a listed stakes to the claiming ranks today and could easily be the one for a top barn. Kellyn Gorder trainee goes for a conditioner at 33% for the meeting as well as 28% with shippers, and the four-year-old filly was a sharp winner at a similar distance to this in her lone outing on this course. Tactical sort has run a trio of decent ones since coming off the break and moving to this barn, and we like the bay in this spot with Eddie Castro riding. Expect the lass to be closer early on with the added ground to work with in this affair.
6   Millennium Star 7/2   Prime Power 2nd from the potent Catalano barn has won or placed in nine of her last ten and is an obvious must use in this one for a 30% conditioner here. Four-year-old filly by Pure Prize was a closing third in a turf sprint here last time at this level and may thrive getting a bit more ground to work with today for a 19% sprint to route barn. Course specialist has won or placed in 7 of 8 runs on this lawn and will likely be well perched at the top of the lane in this one. Noel Vigil rides.
4   J J's Classic 9/2   Richard Scherer pupil has a big turn of foot in a race that could have some pace signed on, and the mare by Sky Classic looms large coming in with a trio of consecutive second place runs on this lawn. Dark bay Kentucky-bred has handled three different types of turf courses in advance of this, showing her versatility, and she may get a very nice set up in the lane beneath James Graham, who is a solid 33% for this barn last 60 days. Expect the five-year-old to take back and make one run in the stretch.
5   Bethany Belle 4/1   Pace of the race is not in prime form entering this, but the miss still has big early foot and takes a big drop down from the $50,000 ranks, making her a player in this spot. Andrew Hansen trainee owns a fine tally on this oval from last year and gets top turf pilot Geroux to ride, and he won on the mare last campaign at this venue. Daughter of Successful Appeal could get real brave if unopposed in the early going.

4th JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) Clm $12,500 3yo and up, Purse: $9,500. 5:10/( 4:10)/ 3:10/ 2:10
Exacta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10) / .50 Trifecta,.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Valid Message 1/2   Prime Power leader and horse to beat has been sharp while first or second in a trio of turf runs on this oval in advance of this and could be the single of this sequence. Seven-year-old gelding by Valid Expectations is 4-for-7 on this turf oval and couldn't be going much better right now for trainer Karl Broberg, 23% going route to sprint, though this cutback is minimal. Texas-bred lands in a very winnable spot and should be gearing up prior to the turn for home under Jamie Theriot.
1   Claudia's Forum 8/1   Brent Morris pupil could be the one in this one when getting first run on the favorite today. Sixth in his first run for this outfit last time, the son of Open Forum is a fine 4-for-6 on this turf course and has the tactical speed to sit second early, and if he puts away the pacesetter with ease, he could be very tough to run down in the lane with his top showing. Eight-year-old gelding will be forwardly placed under Contreras, and could be worth including in this sequence at a nice number.
2   Range Man 10/1   Six-year-old son of Powerscourt looks to be isolated speed on the front end and could be the main danger if nobody forces him to race early on. Bay gelding has never even hit the board from six tries on this turf oval but gets a perfect post to flaunt his speed and who knows how brave he will be, especially if the top pick never fires. Trainer Danny Payne is having a decent meet at 15% here, and Simmington is riding at a 29% clip for this shedrow last 60 days. Worth a flier, perhaps.

5th JP5 1 1/8m Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $40,000. 5:27/( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (4-5) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 4-6) / $1 Pick 6 (races 4 -9) (15% takeout)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Jaguar Ridge 4/1   Prime Power second showed speed to midstretch before tiring last time, but the Swearingen pupil was running off the shelf in just his second since December, and the win player could be a lot more fit for this endeavor. Dark bay son of Cactus Ridge is a two-time winner on this lawn from eight tries, and though winless in his last ten, the five-year-old has a touch of back class and could be a sleeper of sorts in a very average field. We envision this one stalking the pace from this post under Seth Martinez, and he wouldn't be a total shock today.
3   Alpha Kitalpha 9/5   Gelded son of Kitalpha has a fine turn of foot on the lawn and was a nice second on this oval in his 2013 debut, so he's an obvious must use for a barn at 30% at this meeting. Wayne Catalano trainee adds blinkers in this one possibly in hopes of getting him in the race a bit earlier, and the four-year-old bay goes for a trainer who is also a fine 29% with a beaten favorite last time. Money rider Channing hill has the assignment, and if the speed backs up at all, the Illinois-bred will be closing best.
4   Big Man in Black 5/2   Frank Kirby trainee appreciated the move to the main oval last time when a big second, finishing more than three lengths clear of third, and slight improvement might get this one to the winners' circle today. Four-year-old son of Southern Image comes off a lifetime best Speed number and might be figuring things out right now, for a 13% route conditioner. Manny Esquiv'el will ride and is a solid 27% for this barn over the last 60 days. Expect the win player to be in the mix once again.