Jackpot 5 Analysis - 08/24/2013

Jackpot 5 08/24/2013


1st JP5 7f Non-graded 2yo Fillies, Purse: $125,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Scandalous Act 7/5   Prime Power leader and horse to beat from the O'Connell barn gets the rail for this one and comes off a smashing win in the Desert Vixen S., her first race with blinkers on. Dark bay daughter of Act of Duty has big early foot to take advantage of this post and and shows a pair of maintenance drills in preparation of this which should have the filly fit and ready. We don't live this post, but this rider/combo is at 39% last 60 days and the lass looms large, nonetheless.
5   Holiday Magic 4/1   Billy Kaplan pupil has done little wrong from a pair of lifetime tries and could be the one closing best if the top pick fails to fire. A fine debut winner on this oval, the daughter of Congrats went off favored when second to the top pick last time and surely has room for improvement for a trainer who seems to do better with runners having a few under their belts. Stalker gives the impression of one who may thrive with more ground to work with, and keeps Juan Leyva in the saddle to ride.
3   Utootweet 3/1   Recent maiden winner from the powerful barn of David Fawkes comes off a fine maiden tally at Gulfstream and we liked the improvement this one showed from start one to two leading up to this. Improving sort is 3rd in Prime Power for a conditioner at 20% with a maiden winner last time out, and we expect this lass to be forwardly placed and perhaps pressing the favorite in the early going. Jesus Rios will ride.

2nd JP5 7f Non-graded 2yo, Purse: $125,000. ( 4:54)/ 3:54/ 2:54/ 1:54
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Copa Del Rey 5/1   Dark bay son of With Distinction is still a maiden but wouldn't be a total surprise with a break through in this spot while removing the blinkers. Juvenile colt was chasing the winner of the Dr Fager for much of the stretch last time in a sneaky good performance, and if he gets someone to run with the favorite early, he could be rolling home best of all. Trainer Sal Santoro is having a tough meeting at 0-for-24, but 12 of those have placed and this would be a nice way to break through. Bullet work in tow, gets the upset nod.
3   My Brown Eyed Guy 4/5   Morning line choice and horse to catch and beat has bagged two in succession, including a fine tally in the Dr Fager S. most recently, and gives Kathleen O'Connell a pair of live ones for the juvenile stakes this day. Speedy gelding by With Distinction just missed by a nose at first asking in his lone defeat and he looks to have a tactical edge on this field with his early foot, making the Prime Power boss a menacing figure in here. Eddie Nunez keeps the mount and is a fine 39% for this outfit last 60 days. Lots to like.
2   D N A Approved 6/1   January foal from the Gold barn was a sharp second in a maiden race behind his talented stable mate and showed nice improvement off his debut, hinting that he may have another forward move in him. Son of Hear no Evil goes for a conditioner at 24% with a beaten favorite last time and we have a hunch he might be sent out of the gate from this post, as he did show quickness most recently from the gate. Juan Delgado rides the juvenile, who may get brave if he gets the early lead.
7   Best Plan Yet 3/1   Recent maiden hero was a nice second in the Dr Fager two prior and rates an obvious top three chance in this one for Stan Gold, who is always a factor in these juvenile races. Bay son of Hear No Evil has never run a bad one from a trio of lifetime tries and is 2nd in Prime Power for a conditioner at 23% in non graded stakes events. Jeffrey Sanchez will ride and be stalking the pace from this post.

3rd JP5 About 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $12,500 3yo and up, Purse: $27,500. 5:02/( 4:02)/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10) / .50 Trifecta,.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Cajun Persuasion 6/5   Morning line choice rides in with a four-race win streak and dons a sensational 9-for-14 mark on this lawn for conditioner Ron Feaucheux, a fine 33% at this meeting and 29% with a winner last time out. Seven-year-old son of Orientate has very big early foot and an obvious affinity for this lawn, so it seems impossible to look elsewhere in this spot even though we hate to settle for the expected small price. Richard Eramia will ride and is a duperb 40% for this barn last 60 days.
4   Deputy Red 15/1   Karl Broberg claim will go dirt to turf in this one and we think he will handle the lawn in just his second grassy appearance. Gelded son of Like A Sailor has a pair of winning siblings from a conditioner at a fine 27% off the claim, and he did show speed to the lane in a route turf run, so he may have the tactical foot to stay in range early and have a chance turning for home. For this wager, we'd toss in the LA-bred at a big number.
2   Storm Half 5/1   Prime Power second goes first off the claim for trainer Danny Pish and will get a look from this corner. Gelded son of Storm and a Half is unplaced from just a single turf run to date, but he earned a big Speed figure and a 101 Late Pace number in a win last time out, for a barn at 28% here and 20% off the claim. The bay is kin to a pair of turf winners, and we consider him to be the best closer in this field.
7   Sun Shadow 6/1   Five-year-old was a big second in a turf dash at Lone Star in his 2013 debut and could peak here third off the layoff while getting back on the sod. Uriegas trainee is a fairly consistent runner from a Speed number standpoint and faces easier on a drop today, as he tried second level allowance foes most recently. The dark bay could force the favorite from the start as a wildcard in the field, for an outfit at 20% dirt to turf. Could be live.

4th JP5 5f (Turf) Non-graded 2yo, Purse: $75,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Breitling Flyer 4/1   Chestnut colt by fine turf influence Ghostzapper has run first or second from a trio of lifetime runs and rates a big chance on the surface switch today as the Prime Power leader. February foal has the right running style for a trainer at 35% in non graded stakes, and one of his siblings was a multiple stakes winner on the sod. Florida-bred goes for a trainer at 25% at this meeting and we think is a must use in here.
9   Million Dollar Man 6/1   Prime Power third by Keyed Entry has big early foot and could be the one to catch turning for home in here at a price. Jason Decosta trainee led all the way in a dash at 4 1/2 furlongs last time and his gate speed could be magnified in here without a ton of pace signed on for this dash. Bay colt is kin to a pair of grassy winners and we think he has to be on the ticket in the case he clears early on. Bocachica stays and we wouldn't argue with one taking a big swing with this one.
12   Macho Trini 3/1   Prime Power 2nd draws a tough post hung so wide in this one but is unbeaten from a pair of lifetime runs and could be any kind for David Fawkes, 13% first time on the turf. Dark bay son of Macho Uno has a pair of turf winning siblings from four others to run and we envision this one giving a fine account of himself in his stakes debut. We're not thrilled about the morning line number here, but he's something of a must use in a wide-open field.
1   Bluegrass Derby 10/1   Chestnut son of Bluegrass Cat broke slow, had traffic in the lane, and still got up for the win in a very good maiden tally at first asking. Duco trainee is bred for the lawn some and his lone sibling was a stakes winner and was victorious on the lawn, for a trainer who is just 1-for-21 first time on the weeds. The chestnut shows a nice moring drill in advance of this, and if he breaks clean, we think he has a chance at a number. Olivero inherits the ride.

5th JP5 5f (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 5:29/( 4:29)/ 3:29/ 2:29
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 twinspires.com Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Two Lions 3/1   Top pick is 3rd in Prime Power and could get a contested pace to run into late for Frank Kirby, 20% with a beaten favorite last time. Gelded son of Lion Heart loves to settle for minor awards with six seconds and only one win, but we loved his late run for second on this lawn last time and his last duo of turf runs have resulted in big runner-up showings. Manny Esquiv'el will ride and likely take back early before unleashing the bay for his late run. 27% jockey/trainer combo last 60 days.
8   Rae Jet 7/2   Prime Power boss from the Grego barn was a big second in a turf dash at Indiana last time with similar and could be the one after a pair of fine runs to kick off his career. Gelded son of Yes It's True has done little wrong from a pair of career starts and should have room for improvement for a 13% turf conditioner, who will be saddling his first runner at the meeting. Eddie Castro riding adds to the appeal.
6   Evil Image 9/2   Mike Dini trainee ran a pretty good fourth in his turf debut last time on a yielding course and has a lot to like in here at a fair number. Dark bay gelding by Southern Image goes for a barn at 0-for-13 second off the claim but is 10% second on the turf, and the speedy sophomore will likely be close up early, especially if he gets firm turf to work with on this occasion. Timmy Thornton will guide the win player.
7   Strapping 10/1   Sneaky contender by Put it Back has not been in great form but got a freshener in advance of this by a good layoff barn, and the morning line overlay is worth putting on the ticket going all weather to the turf. Gelded son of Put it Back is winless from a pair of grassy outings, but is kin to a pair of turf winners and this barn is 24% with this type of layoff. Diego Sanchez will likely be stalking the pace while fairly close early aboard the win player.