Jackpot 5 Analysis - 08/30/2013

Jackpot 5 08/30/2013


1st JP5 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,800. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   No Way R J 8/1   Upset pick by Roar of the tiger showed little speed but rallied very well first time on the lawn last time, earning a strong 95 Late Pace number in a nice third place effort. Bred top and bottom to be useful on the lawn, the lightly raced sophomore could surely move forward if he gets firm going in here and also second time out in 2013, being a much fitter runner. Florida-bred goes for a mostly obscure barn in these parts and could light up the tote board from off the pace.
4   On Appeal 6/1   Prime Power 3rd ran a winning race in defeat behind a sharp one on the main oval last time and will be very tough if he takes to the green in this dash. Gelded five-year-old by 11% turf sire Closing Argument has very good positional speed and a turn of foot for a trainer who is at 20% dirt to turf. Florida-bred will likely be in the second flight early and could be of good value in his grassy debut.
2   Dynamic Boy 5/2   Chestnut colt by Peace Rules tired in a route race on the lawn here last time but could thrive on the cutback in trip and looms a danger in this one. Four-year-old Florida-bred has proven very capable on grass with a route win here three back, and the speedy sort could be close and have plenty left late going route to sprint for a conditioner at 18% at the meeting and 14$ on the lawn. Rider switch to Luca Panici for the win contender.

2nd JP5 6f Clm $6,250 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,500. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Blackstone 3/1   Prime Power leader was outrun some at Gulf last time but was a big second here two prior and could be the one to catch on this afternoon. Dark bay filly by Gimmeawink dueled through wicked splits two prior but still held well clear in second, and if she goes :45 3/5 again for the opening half-mile, she will be super tough in this dash with Gomez in the silks. This barn is a fine 29% for the meeting, and we consider the potential pacesetter a must use.
5   Afleet Memories 5/2   Prime Power second from the barn of Marcus Vitali ran an even fourth in a bit of traffic last time at the level and rates a chance right back from a better post slot on this occasion. Bay daughter of Afleet Alex has been third in each of her three runs on this oval and has fair form coming in for a conditioner at 24% no class change and 23% at this meeting. Fernando Jara will guide the obvious win contender.
1   Freebie's Sister 5/1   Tom Schell trainee gets a nice rail draw for this dash and could be sitting in the perfect spot tucked in behind the pace early on. Chestnut filly by Indy Wind gets Lasix for the first time while removing the blinkers, and that combination could aid her in getting over the top with a positive rider change to Manny Aguilar for this heat. Capable sort is 0-for-11 here, but has flashed ability on this main oval, and she's worth using in this sequence.
9   B L's Dream 6/1   Bay daughter of B L's Appeal might have the biggest kick in the field and would be no surprise today for Sano. A closing third last time in a big run from off the pace, the bay sophomore is a winner on the oval and could get some pace to chase late, especially if the top pick gets hounded on the front in here. Zayas will ride and is 43% for this barn last 60 days. Chance.

3rd JP5 About 1m (Turf) Clm $16,000 3yo and up, Purse: $14,000. 4:58/( 3:58)/ 2:58/ 1:58
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (3-4) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 3-5)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Kinzig 9/2   Recent maiden winner showed some life on this lawn last campaign and wouldn't be a big shock here from off the pace while in solid form. Tammy Domenosky trainee has been first or second in three straight, and it's possible the son of Pleasant Tap has figured it all out for an outfit at a fine 29% with a maiden winner most recently. Regular pilot Noel Vigil will ride and likely be a few lengths off the early pace atop the four-year-old.
3   Myles 5/2   Five-year-old son of War Chant has good early speed and looms a huge chance on the class drop today under Channing Hill. Wayne Catalano trainee is a winner on this lawn with a maiden tally here, and he could pop a big one here facing softer third time off the shelf for a conditioner who continues to have a fine meeting at 30%, and also a nice 24% down a class level. Two recent drills should have the Kentucky-bred fit to run today.
4   Peteizum 3/1   Jimmy Divitto trainee just missed at the level most recently and is an obvious player in this endeavor. Gelded son of Safe in the USA has run well in both lifetime turf runs in advance of this and could possibly get a dream trip tracking the one to his inside, or up top if he clears early on. The bay has been pretty consistent, and though possibly overbet, he still has to be considered with Diego Sanchez in the irons.

4th JP5 About 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $12,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $22,000. 5:10/( 4:10)/ 3:10/ 2:10
Exacta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10) / .50 Trifecta,.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Amozan Ruler 9/5   Morning line choice and Prime Power leader has been first or second in a trio of fine runs on this lawn in advance of this and gets a nice post to ensure clear sailing throughout on this day. Joseph Foster trainee is offered for a tag and should be popular at the claim box, but he goes for a conditioner doing well here and a fine 30% with a beaten favorite last time out, and his early gas figures to have him forcing the pace and taking command in early stretch. Simington rides and is 29% for the barn last 60 days.
4   Stone Cold Crazy 5/1   Five-year-old daughter of Mass Media faces a bit tougher today but has fine current form and could upset the field if the pace melts down in the lane. Chestnut mare from the Cravens barn has been first or second in a trio of successive lawn tries off the layoff and is very hard for us to ignore with the rider change to Contreras. Barn is just 4% here, but we still have to use the top three player as a dangerous closer.
2   Dixie Sweetheart 9/2   Shane Wilson is the inside speed of the field and could be very dangerous in here, especially if the top gun fails to fire. Four-year-old filly by Ide has been in the mix in two straight on this oval with good showings, and if she clears early, the lass could get very brave turning for home third time on the lawn at this meeting. Rodriguez will ride and be pushing this one along early on.
6   Dixie Lover 6/1   Chestnut daughter of Proudest Romeo broke through with a powerful maiden win on the main oval last time and she rates a top three play trying winners for the first time and switching to the green. Speedy sort can be sent or track an early tempo, and is kin to a pair of grassy winners for a barn at 21% here and 17% with a maiden winner most recently. Al Cates trainee should be a decent price and is worth using for a 38% jockey/trainer combo with Eramia.

5th JP5 6fAlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $39,000. 5:27/( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (4-5) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 4-6) / $1 Pick 6 (races 4 -9) (15% takeout)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Moroccan Brew 7/2   Recent winner on this oval was super impressive late with a flying finish late to win going away, and the Hugh Robertson trainee gets the nod right back to mow them down in the latter stages. Four-year-old colt by Milwaukee Brew has hit the board in 6 of 8 outings on this main oval and has earned some whopping late pace figures here, with a 107 most recently. The dark bay has been very good at this distance on the Polytrack, and if any pace battle occurs up front, it will make his job that much easier with James Graham returning to the saddle.
1   Bluegrass Dan 2/1   Four-year-old gelding by Bluegrass Cat comes off a break of nearly 13 months, but this barn can always have them ready off of works, and the Kentucky-bred looms a big chance from the rail. A fine debut winner on this oval, the bay then finished third here in a fine effort with winners and has been shelved since, but the local drills have been fast and he could be the one for sure. Prime Power leader hails from an outfit at 30% with a beaten favorite last time, and if he breaks cleanly from this post, the major player might be too much under Geroux.
2   Rivershire 10/1   Sneaky contender cuts back from route to sprint and will be flying late behind a contested pace we think. Steve Manley trainee is a dual winner on this main oval and shows some healthy late pace numbers when he sprints, taking back and making one run, and the son of Chicago Six seems to have landed in a fine spot with a ton of pace signed on. We obviously think our play has a better late run, but we'd use this one at a big number in hopes of closing out this sequence with a bang. Eddie Castro riding adds to the appeal.
6   Emile 5/1   Prime Power second hasn't been that close to winning in his last pair, but the course lover is 5-for-8 here and we can't dismiss one who thrives here that much. Gelded son of Congrats has not been in great form in three since being claimed by this barn, and he lands in a tough spot with declining speed numbers, but if he is sent instead of trying to rate like he did most recently, we think he becomes more of a presence in the lane. Manny Esquiv'el picks up the ride, and we like the move.