Jackpot 5 Analysis - 08/31/2013

Jackpot 5 08/31/2013


1st JP5 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up, Purse: $22,100. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Charlie in Charge 4/1   Gelded son of Indian Charlie has excuses for his last two outings and will be a major player with his best in this one fo0r Marcus Vitali, 23% at this venue. Kentucky-bred bay has never run on this turf oval but has kept some solid company as of late and owns the early foot to be in the hunt from the start from a very good post that should give pilot Jeffrey Sanchez some options in the early going of this one. We'll tab this one to kick off the sequence.
10   Holy Invader 3/1   Prime Power leader from the dynamic Wolfson barn adds to the depth of the field and could easily be the one facing a lot of nice ones lately. Four-year-old colt by Invasor has placed in both lifetime tries on the green, including a nice try at Gulfstream two prior, and he could peak some today second time off the shelf. The bay owns the top Average speed in the field and could get a fine trip just outside of the early leaders to the top of the lane.
9   Twin 8/1   Sneaky win player has been first or second in his last four races on the green, and while he is a slight notch below a few of these from a class perspective, but the form can't be denied and the price should be nice on this win contender. Gelded son of Omega Code is 2-for-3 here and won going away last time in a more dominant showing than it looks on paper, as the dark bay was always well placed in here. The grinder lacks the potent turn of foot as a few of these, but he must be on our ticket in a tough race.
6   El Romano 5/1   Sano trainee was a game winner at Gulfstream Park in advance of this at the level and has finished first or second in four straight runs leading up to this in a fine form cycle. Four-year-old son of Badge of Silver has been going very well since joining this barn earlier in the year and has a big turn of foot in a field with some pace signed on, so we fully expect this one to have a say in the outcome from off the pace at a square number in this field. Diego Gomez will be up, and the colt should be fresh off the short layoff.
3   Notimetokill 6/1   Prime Power 3rd comes off a nice win on this lawn last time and could be the one right back after running a pretty solid time that should fit well at this level. Gelded son of With Distinction likes this venue with five of seven top three finishes here at Calder, and the bay is also versatile enough to be a major factor if the race washes off onto the main oval. Trainer Bisnath Parboo is a fine 26% with a winner last race, and we expect to see this four-year-old forwardly placed from the start beneath Eddie Nunez, who picks up the ride.

2nd JP5 1m MdnClm $12,500 3&4&5yo's, Purse: $10,500. ( 4:54)/ 3:54/ 2:54/ 1:54
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Sarava's Pete 3/1   Top pick showed nice improvement at Gulfstream Park last time with the combination of blinkers off and going a route of ground, and we think he runs them down today under Kenny. Four-year-old son of Sarava has two winning siblings from three to race and is bred to run at least this far through his sire, so the two turns makes a lot of sense in this spot. The bay goes for a competent barn at 13% here and 12% in route races, and we'll side with the Prime Power second from off the pace.
5   River Congaree 7/5   Probable horse to beat goes turf to dirt in his second try for Cascalleres and could be the one to catch as the field turns for home. Gelded son of Congaree has been second and third in a pair of main track races here and could move forward today on the slight class drop and being lone speed in the field with a clean break. This barn has low pe4rcentage numbers, or we would consider singling this one in the pick 5 sequence. Diego Gomez rides.
6   Grave 4/1   Dennis Ward trainee tops the field in Prime Power and has been second from a pair of tries on the main oval here in advance of this. Gelded son of Belgravia has yet to break through but is consistent and has enough early foot to be in the race early on, not being left with too much to do turning for home. Kin to a winner from one to race, the bay shows a nice half-mile drill most recently and should be in the hunt late in a field lacking class and depth.

3rd JP5 1m 70 Yards Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 5:02/( 4:02)/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10) / .50 Trifecta,.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Everstraight 4/1   Lightly raced son of Lawyer Ron has been first and second from two lifetime runs and could be a big player in his first with winners for Brian House, 24% at the meeting and 33% 1st time going long. Kentucky-bred four-year-old is bred to run at least this far being out of an Alydar mare, and the fact that he shows speed at five furlongs tells us he looks to be the one to catch as the field turns for home. We're not in love with the prospect, but give him top billing under Smith, 33% for this barn last 60 days.
2   B. G.'s Admiral 2/1   Prime Power leader and morning line choice will debut for the barn of Eric Heitzmann in here, and he looks like a live one making his first run at LA Downs. Gelded chestnut had a fair prep for this in a sprint most recently at Evangeline which might have him sharper today for the stretch out, where he has had success in the past. Louisiana-bred son of Royal Empire goes to an outfit that is 24% 1st w/trainer, and he seems like a wise inclusion on the ticket. Richard Eramia takes the reins.
1   Atticus the Man 7/2   Wesley Hawley claim had been first or second in four straight prior to a dull showing most recently, and now the win contender jump up in class to the allowance ranks on this afternoon while securing the rail spot. Gelded son of Afternoon Deelites has won or placed in 5 of 120 runs on this main oval, with a big closing win here two races back, and we expect him to save ground early and make a run from off the pace once again today for a barn at a strong 25% off the claim and a fine 20% here. Simington rides and has won at a 32% rate for this outfit last 60 days.

4th JP5 1m (Turf) MdnClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $16,000. 5:33/( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 twinspires.com Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Illusive Fugitive 5/2   Michelle Boyce claim is 2nd in Prime Power and goes to an outfit at 29% off the claim, making this son of Stephen Got Even a logical inclusion in this foray. Kentucky-bred is out of a stakes placed dam and kin top a winner from two to race, with a trio of fourth place finishes on the lawn coming in to this one. We love the tactical speed and pair of bullet drills on this main oval in advance of this, and he would be of no shock beneath E T Baird on this day. Could sit the dream trip.
5   Love You Mon 9/2   Brian Williamson pupil led until very late before being rundown in a similar spot on this oval most recently, showing huge improvement in his second try on the lawn in a lifetime best showing. Pacey son of Monarchos is clearly better on the green and could be the one to catch once again being drawn inside of the other speed in the field, and if he's left alone again, he might seal the deal late under Chris Emigh. Bullet :47 2/5 drill most recently gives more reason for enthusiasm.
7   Bare Your Heart 8/1   Bay colt by Birdstone is half to a pair of turf winners and could be a player in his second lifetime run after making up some ground in a sprint debut on the main oval. Sophomore colt goes for a conditioner who is useful at 17% first time running on the weeds, and the four recent drills following that debut run indicates that his initial try was merely a prep for this race. We consider this one a good one to have on the ticket under Vasyyutov, who will be unhurried early atop the Kentucky-bred.
2   Indygo Prince 3/1   Prime Power 3rd from the capable Kassen barn ran evenly in fourth here in a useful showing off the short layoff and will be a player late with expected improvement from this one. Chestnut son of Indygo Shiner is kin to a turf stakes winner from one to race and while he has yet to break through and graduate, this field is lacking and he gets a nice post to save ground throughout this turf test. Barn 21% at the meeting, Edgar Perez takes the reins.

5th JP5 1 1/8m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. 6:04/( 5:04)/ 4:04/ 3:04
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (9-10) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 9-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Willcox Inn 6/5   Class of the field from the Stidham barn has a ton of ability and speed and could be a decent single to close out this sequence. Five-year-old dark bay by Harlan's Holiday was a winner in his lone try on this main strip and goes turf to synthetic on this occasion coming off of eight straight runs at the graded level, with some pretty good results in those against fine opposition. The five-year-old is at his home base as this is where he trains, and his natural gate speed will have him in the hunt from the start as an imposing figure. Barn 23% here, regular rider James Graham has the assignment.
3   Mister Marti Gras 9/5   Logical contender was a big second in the Haanshin Cup (G3) here two back and looms the best chance to upend the favorite we think in this spot. Chris Block pupil has been first or second in all three runs on this oval and comes in with impeccable form, with five straight top two finishes, on all types of ovals. Consistently good sort has trained well up to this and could be very fresh, and his tactical speed will keep him close enough turning for home. The son of Belong To Me should be included with Eddie Perez in the silks.
6   Agent Di Nozzo 7/2   Steve Margolis trainee has been in lifetime form with a trio of triple digit Speed numbers posted in three straight, and will hope to translate that form to the All Weather here in making his synthetic debut. Four-year-old son of Ghostzapper was a fine stakes winner at Indiana Downs last time and tops this field in Average speed while well drawn on the outside for a barn at 22% with shippers. Rapidly improving gelding is still a mystery here, but he's a must use while stalking the pace while close early on under Shaun Bridgmohan.