Jackpot 5 Analysis - 09/06/2013

Jackpot 5 09/06/2013


1st JP5 7f Clm $7,500 3yo and up, Purse: $15,000. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56 ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9),pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Our Prize 8/1   Gelded son of Pure Prize has been facing better at the state-bred level at Presque Isle in two starts since joining this barn, and the Lauer trainee looms large in here as the potential horse to catch. Speedy sophomore draws well to match his running style and could produce a peak showing third time off the layoff for a conditioner at 14% in that category. The chestnut owns his only win on dirt, and we expect him to be forwardly placed from the start beneath Naupac.
3   Turbalo 7/2   Prime Power leader in the field removes blinkers for this one after a one race experiment with the hood and is a wildcard contender in his dirt debut in this one. Four-year-old son of Unbridled Energy goes for a fine 43% route to sprint conditioner after running two turns in his last pair, and the tactical speed he showed last time could translate well to this spot, in a field lacking quality and depth. Alexander Castillo will ride for Marco Salazar.
7   Sweet Alexander 10/1   Gelded son of Afleet Alex is racing back into shape following a near two-year layoff, and we'll forgive his latest when running into a fine winner for the level at Ellis Park. Glosson trainee is tough to back to win, but we think he takes a nice step forward in this spot and has the turn of foot to be a big player late at a price, especially if the pace backs up in the lane. Roberto Morales has the assignment.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $46,000. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28 ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Arriving 4/1   Al Stall trainee ran mostly evenly in a tough debut spot sprinting at Saratoga first time out and stretches out here as a live contender for a fine barn, which is 24% 1st time at a route. Gelded son of Harlan's Holiday has six winning siblings from as many to run and should thrive at this trip with his pedigree suggesting routing will be the key both top and bottom. We're not thrilled about the sophomore being parked wide, but he showed nice early foot and should be able to get a good trip under Joe Rocco, Jr.
5   Air Squadron 6/1   Chestnut colt by Curlin didn't show much at Ellis Park last time in his first outing since joining this barn, but the colt showed a ton of ability in a pair of fine runs versus good ones at Gulfstream earlier this campaign, and he could be an overlay in this spot. Kentucky-bred sophomore has five winning siblings from five to race, including a pair of stakes winners, including three-time Grade 2 winner Smooth Air. Trainer Steve Margolis is 18% second with trainer and we expect big improvement in here with a returning Miguel Mena.
2   Risky Asset 9/2   Prime Power leader shows up here for trainer Vickie Foley for the first time, and is an obvious danger having faced the toughest opposition of any in the field leading up to this. Four-year-old colt by Smart Strike is out of a real nice mare and has run some big races in the Empire State, so we think the Kentucky-bred is a natural fit in this field, for a barn at a solid 20% 1st w/trainer. Robby Albarado will take the reins and surely have this one in the first or second flight soon after the start.
9   Best Request 9/2   Bay son of Macho Uno has placed in three of four lifetime tries and appears to be a much better animal on the dirt, where he raced in his first two outings. Shannon Ritter trainee was a close third on this main strip last campaign in his local debut, and he now goes all weather to dirt for a conditioner at 15% in that category with Ricardo Santana riding, 22% in route races. The bay will be doing his best work from off the early pace.

3rd JP5 5 1/2fAlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $40,000. 5:55/( 4:55)/ 3:55/ 2:55
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Taty's Gold 4/1   Michael Dini pupil is 3rd in Prime Power in the field and comes off a huge runner-up showing dashing on the lawn here. Five-year-old mare by Touch Gold is a two-time winner on this main oval proving she can handle the Poltrack, and the very capable lass gets a nice draw on the rail which could have her on the front end or forcing the issue soon after the break. We like the bay's versatility and consider her something of a must use in this foray. Bullet work in tow, Roman rides.
6   Blue Forty 5/2   Prime Power leader from the strong barn of Jimmy Divito has been first or second in three straight here in an excellent form cycle, and the daughter of d'Wildcat is an obvious contender in this mostly well matched field. Speedy chestnut doesn't need the lead to win and is 4-for-6 here lifetime, something of a course specialist. Expect the four-year-old to be prominent early on beneath Cisco Torres, 40% for this outfit last 60 days.
7   La Song 6/1   Grade 3 placed daughter of Unbridled's Song has run well on this oval with two wins and two more placings from seven outings here, and the Prime Power second wouldn't be a shock to reverse form and be a major player today for 29% meet conditioner Wayne Catalano. Sophomore filly has a lot of pace and a nice post to flaunt her speed, and while she has stopped in her last trio of runs, we think she gets a favorable scenario today and could be a square number. E T Baird will be in the irons and having this lass in the mix early on.
2   Somali Byrd 7/2   Four-year-old daughter might need a lifetime best to upend this field but has very good form and might get a dream pace set up with a potential duel up front early on. Consistent gray filly was a nice winner here three back in her latest run on the Polytrack here, and with the price she is likely to be, we'd toss her in the wagering sequence as something of a separator, just in case. Julio Felix rides for a 19% allowance conditioner.

4th JP5 1m Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $48,000. ( 5:59)/ 4:59/ 3:59/ 2:59 ( 5:59)/ 4:59/ 3:59/ 2:59
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Exploring 3/1   Mark Casse comebacker was outrun in his last pair but has excuses for each, and we'll look for the upset with this son of Sky Mesa. Off since January, the sophomore ran into stakes quality fields in his last pair prior to the layoff, and lands in a soft spot here while securing the rail, for a conditioner at a good 17% off of this type of layoff. Third in his lone outing on this main oval, the gelding will likely tuck in behind the pace and be in a fine spot turning for home under Shaun Bridgmohan.
4   A. P. Indian 3/1   Dominant debut winner from Delaware has been transferred to the barn of Rusty Arnold for this one and could be any type in this field. Son of Indian Charlie showed good speed and didn't look to be tiring late in that sprint, and the sophomore should get a lot of stamina from his dam's side, being out of an A.P. Indy mare. The win contender lands in a mostly soft spot for the level, and while this barn is just 5% first time going long, he gets a long look here. Joe Rocco, Jr rides and is 29% for this barn last 60 days.
2   Saint X. 5/2   Recent maiden winner finally broke through last time and could be a danger in here as perhaps the speed of the race. Dale Romans trainee has experience here and was third last time on this strip against a decent field, and the blinkers he added two back seemed to have helped this one a bit. Son of Tiznow owns the top Prime Power figure in the field, gets a great post draw and could also move forward second off the layoff. Robby Albarado has the call and is 31% for this outfit last 60 days.
3   Soul Winner's Fire 6/1   Son of Congrats showed nice improvement in a fine turf maiden win last time at Indiana and the forwardly progressing sophomore could be a lot to handle in his debut with winners. Dark bay Florida-bred earned a solid Late Pace number last time and has been using this as a home base, so we expect a nice performance in this spot for conditioner Kenny McPeek, who is a capable 13% with a maiden winner last time out. Victor Lebron has the call and is 35% for this outfit last 60 days.

5th JP5 About 1m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $39,000. 6:24/( 5:24)/ 4:24/ 3:24
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Beyond Compare 9/2   Top pick from the Proctor barn exits what we thought was a very live heat when third here most recently on a yielding course, and any type of improvement makes the gelding especially live in here. Gelded son of Tapit was flattered when the runner-up out of his last came back to win, and the sophomore could be ready for another good run today while getting the jump on the deep closers with his tactical speed. Eddie Castro will be in the silks and likely in the second flight behind a moderate pace early on.
6   River Lemon 7/2   Prime Power leader by Lemon Drop Kid made a huge later run in just missing in a similar spot last time and will add the shades in hopes of getting over his affinity for settling for minor awards, with placings in seven of eight without a win. Wayne Catalano trainee surely fits in with this type for an 18% turf conditioner who continues to thrive at this meeting, but we are a bit cautious of this one hailing from an outfit at 0-for-7 putting the blinks back on. Go-to pilot Channing Hill has the call.
4   Caught Napping 4/1   Dark bay son of Sleeping Indian has faced stakes foes from a pair of runs in the U. S. and will now face allowance foes in his first run at Arlington for Dan Peitz, 17% first w/trainer. Capable colt is a two-time winner and has been training well at this venue in leading up to this, so if the wildcard of sorts takes money in the wagering, we move him forward today. James Graham will ride, and we'd expect this one to be relaxed early in what might be a prep race. Still in our sequence, though.
1   Keep 'Em Laughing 5/1   Gelded son of Home At Last is now two-for-two in his career on the lawn, both leading up to this race on this course, and we love the rail draw for this sophomore. Brian Williamson trainee proved capable at handling a route of ground last time in successfully stretching out from five panels to nine, and while he rises in class with open foes, his form and affinity for the oval gets him on the ticket. Edgar Perez rides and is 26% for this barn last 60 days.