Jackpot 5 Analysis - 09/14/2013

Jackpot 5 09/14/2013


1st JP5 1m 70 Yards Non-graded 2yo Fillies, Purse: $85,000. ( 3:30)/ 2:30/ 1:30/12:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Cambiata 10/1   Chestnut daughter of Concerto showed vast improvement in her debut with blinkers last time, getting up in a fine turf tally, and we think this likely long shot may have turned the corner and rates a chance. Two-year-old miss goes for a trainer at 14% turf to dirt, and shows a useful five panels leading up to this, and we envision her being in the mix early on and well placed turning for home. Fernando Jara rides this one back; upset chance for sure.
2   Flat Out Charming 4/1   Stakes winner from the barn of Rodolfo Garcia surely proved capable of running on this oval last time with a game stakes tally, and the bay daughter of flatter surely gets attention right back having improved in each lifetime run. March foal was a fine maiden winner two prior and ran down a few of these last time in her local debut, for a conditioner who is 21% in non graded stakes runs. Regular rider Antonio Gallardo will ride and will be doing his best work late on this filly.
8   Light Bringer 5/2   William White pupil was a bit unlucky to get run down most recently very late in her debut with winners, and the filly could easily win right back second time at a route. Bay daughter of Northern Afleet is bred to run long so we consider her a major player trying to go long again, and this post should give jockey Jeffrey Sanchez a lot of options early on. Tactical miss must be on the ticket as the Prime Power 2nd.
7   Holiday Magic 6/1   Prime Power leader from the barn of Bill Kaplan will try and run long for the first time in this spot and rates a chance for sure for a conditioner at 11% first at a route. Bay filly by Congrats is twice stakes placed having run into a monster on both occasions, and should be glad to rid herself of that one in this wide-open field. Bay miss has positional speed and a turn of foot, and we think she is another who will be well placed in the lane.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $70,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
11   Nicki Starshine 4/1   Prime Power 3rd from the White barn has been sharp since moving to the lawn and adding blinkers, winning two straight stakes races on this lawn. Dark bay filly by Milwaukee Brew is drawn very wide in this one but has never finished out of the money in her lifetime and is more of a one-run closer, so the post will likely not have a big impact on her. Solid upgrade to Jeffrey Sanchez, 20% for this barn last 60 days.
4   Arriba Anna 10/1   Dark bay daughter of Giant's Causeway aired in her debut for Wolfson last time on this lawn, taking over at will and pulling clear to a fine graduation, for a trainer at 31% with a maiden winner last time out. Well-bred filly has run well in three of her four lifetime runs, and while this is a big class rise, we have some faith in the barn making an aggressive move with the lass. Bullet half-mile and the return of Quincy Hamilton adds to the appeal.
2   Dreaming of Sophia 3/1   Daughter of Lewis Michael was a daylight stakes winner in her two turn debut last time, and the filly will now try the lawn in this spot. Kirk Ziadie pupil is a multiple stakes winner with a lot of speed and breeding for the turf, and also hails from a barn winning at a sensational 45% at this meeting. We love that this barn is a fine 37% off of layoffs like this, but that 1-for-24 mark first on the lawn sticks out like a sore thumb to us. Gallardo picks up the ride.
6   Swinger's Party 5/1   Marty Wolfson trainee has just one run on turf in her lifetime prior to this, but the sophomore clearly has ability and we'll give her a shot today for top connections. Dark bay filly by solid turf influence Medaglia d'Oro was second in a stakes run last time in a race washed off the turf at Gulfstream, and we have a hunch the Florida-bred will pop a big one on the green for a conditioner at 27% for the meeting. Expect this one to be forwardly placed some under Eddie Nunez.

3rd JP5 7fAlwOClm $62,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $50,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Delightful Magic 7/2   Looks to make amends for failing as the favorite last out at Ellis in her first start back from the layoff in an effort in which she stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 1 1/2 lengths. The filly visited the winner's circle in each of her two starts prior, both of which came here at Churchill. Trainer Mark Casse wins with 16% of his runners making their second start off the layoff and with 33% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the call and he wins 20% of the sprints he has a mount in.
3   Honchis'n Ponchis 6/1   Makes her first start since back in March when she put in a so-so effort while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Oaklawn in which she attempted to rally from just off the pace before fading to cross the wire in sixth, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths. Trainer Dale Romans wins with 14% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and with 16% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Roberto Morales gets the call and he wins 14% of the sprints he has a mount in.
8   Sassy Kiss 5/2   Was a perfect two for two in her career before moving to the grass last out at Ellis while facing allowance/optional claiming competition in an effort where she stalked the pace early before tiring a bit late to cross the wire in fourth, beaten by three lengths. Trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 28% of his runners making the turf to dirt move and with 23% of his runners going from a route to a sprint. Miguel Mena gets the call and he wins 13% of the sprints he has a mount in.

4th JP5 1m (Turf) Grade II 2yo, Purse: $200,000. ( 4:53)/ 3:53/ 2:53/ 1:53
First Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Matador 6/1   Logical player from the fine barn of Mark Casse ran pretty well in a stakes debut on the main strip and will stretch out on the turf today, for a trainer 22% first time going long and 16% first on the lawn. Prime Power leading son of good turf sire Malibu Moon had a tough post and slow start in that debut showing and should be especially tough in this one, as the February foal clearly has a lot of ability. Money rider Luis Contreras will be in the irons.
2   Tropic of Artie 3/1   Bay colt by Artie Schiller just missed last time in a maiden race to the morning line favorite in this spot, and we have to give the Brian Lynch trainee a look here from a very good post to show some speed. Juvenile has a pair of winning siblings, both who own turf tallies, and is bred to run all day so the stretch out in trip makes sense to us here. 25% pilot Patrick Husbands has the assignment.
6   School On a Hill 4/1   Bay son of Student Council was an easy turf winner in his debut run at Arlington and will now go first time since moving to the Catalano barn, 185 with shippers and 19% second time on the turf. January foal was a huge surprise first out but looked anything like a fluke, dominating a field where the third place finisher came back to win. Lots to like and we'd have to include this one in the sequence as an unknown commodity who could be a real nice one. Emma Jayne has the call.
10   Asserting Bear 5/2   Read Baker trained son of Bear's Kid overcame this post to win a maiden race last time, and the win contender could be the one with improvement. $50,000 yearling purchase made a big step forward off of his debut performance, which lacked all around, and we like the added ground and tactical speed of this one, who will keep McAleney in the irons for this one. Barn 15% with a maiden winner last time out.

5th JP5 1 1/16m Clm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $25,200. ( 5:26)/ 4:26/ 3:26/ 2:26
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Jabali 5/1   Prime Power 2nd is one of two in the field for Kevin Attard, and this son of Tactical Cat is preferred by us. Razor-sharp gelding has been first or second in all three tries in 2013, each on this main oval, and the gray draw inside of the main contenders in this field as he should be saving ground all the way while potentially on the lead. This barn is 20% at this meeting and a fine 26% with a beaten favorite last time. Gets the slight nod.
13   Pit Alley 7/2   Gelded son of Petionville has an impossible post to work with but comes off a smart tally on this oval against just a bit softer, and he could win right back with a smart voyage under Contreras. Chestnut seven-year-old is not very fond of the winners circle but does handle this oval well, comes off a nice one in a decent form cycle, and has enough tactical foot to not give up too much ground early. Chance for conditioner Lorna Perkins.
12   Safety Zone 5/2   Prime Power leading son of King Cugat just topped similar on this oval while favored and is a must use right back for trainer Gonzalez, 25% with repeat claimers. 7-time local hero has very good early speed which could help neutralize this tricky post, and we like the solid five furlong drill most recently to stay sharp. Gerry Olguin will stay along to ride and could be perfectly spotted at the top of the lane with a clean start.