Jackpot 5 Analysis – 09/21/2013


Jackpot 5 09/21/2013



EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.


1st JP5 6f Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Oblahlah 7/2   Makes her first start since back in January when she put in a nice effort while facing $75k allowance/optional claiming competition at Gulfstream in which she stalked the pace early before tiring to cross the wire in third, beaten by 12 lengths as the favorite. The bay visited the winner's circle while facing maiden special weight competition here in her start prior. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins with 16% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and with an equal percentage of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite.
8   Lucky Mary G. 8/1   Last started back in December when she put in a solid effort while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Fair Grounds in which she stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 2 1/4 lengths. The filly visited the winner's circle while facing $25,000 claimers here in the start prior. Trainer Angel Montano Sr. wins 15% of the sprints he has a runner in.
14   Greek Life 10/1   Came back from the layoff last out with a nice effort versus allowance/optional claiming competition at Indiana Downs in which she stalked the pace early but was no match for the winner late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 4 1/2 lengths. The filly defeated a field of maiden special weight runners by 7 3/4 lengths in the start prior. Trainer Steve Margolis wins 20% of the allowance races he has a runner in and 21% of the sprints. Dylan Davis gets the call and he wins 13% of the sprints he has a mount in.
5   On High Alert 4/1   Has run well in both career starts thus far which includes a trip to the winner's circle while facing maiden special weight competition and a nice effort last out while facing allowance competition at Ellis in an effort where she took the lead early before tiring late to cross the wire in third, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths as the favorite. Trainer Ian Wilkes wins with 21% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite and 13% of the allowance races he has a runner in.
 

2nd JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $60,000. ( 4:58)/ 3:58/ 2:58/ 1:58
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta,daily Double (races 9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Arlo 3/1   Could be ready for better in his second start back from the layoff after putting in a solid effort last out while facing stakes competition at Parx in which he pressed the pace early, edged ahead, and then tired a bit late to cross the wire in third, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths while posting a 100 BRIS Speed rating. Trainer Cynthia Reese wins 19% of the non-graded stakes races she has a runner in and 14% of the route races. Frankie Pennington gets the call and the jockey wins 22% of route races. Arlo tops the field in BRIS Prime Power.
5   Seventy Niner 9/2   Exits a solid performance last out while facing open starter allowance competition here in which he took the lead early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in third, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths while sprinting. The bay visited the winner's circle in each of his two starts prior. Trainer Claudio Gonzalez wins with 16% of his runners going from a sprint to a route and he will have Joe Bravo in the irons who he has combined with for a 50% win rate over the last 60 days.
2   Crafty Concorde 6/1   Is capable of better in his second start back from the layoff after putting in a dull effort last out while facing allowance competition at Parx in which he stalked the pace early before fading to cross the wire in sixth, beaten by 12 lengths. The gray had been in much better form prior and is capable of bouncing back with better today. Angel Suarez gets the call and the jockey wins 13% of route races.
 

3rd JP5 7f Grade III 3yo Fillies, Purse: $100,000. ( 4:59)/ 3:59/ 2:59/ 1:59
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Sky Girl 7/2   Arlington Oaks (G3) third is perfect from a pair of runs on this main oval in advance of this and will make her first run since joining the barn of Bill Mott after a private purchase. Dark bay daughter of Sky Mesa is very consistent with some class to her and gets the rail for this one, coming off some fine morning drills including a bullet five panels here most recently.
4   So Many Ways 5/2   Grade 1 winning daughter of Sightseeing was a winner in her lone prior outing on this oval in a Grade 3 race at seven furlongs like today, and is a must use in this one for conditioner Tom Amoss. Prime Power queen comes off a pair of four-place efforts while in with Grade 1 foes in each of those tries, and the class drop today could aid this one to the winners' circle with her top performance. Miguel Mena rides and will likely be stalking the pace in the second flight early on.
6   Finding More 7/2   Dark bay filly from the sharp Gorder barn earned a huge 100 Speed figure for a fine allowance win here to prior and is now 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. Sophomore by Trickey Trevor had a solid prep for this on the Indiana Downs turf most recently for a barn at 37% turf to dirt, and the dark bay has fine tactical speed which should put her in the race early on. Joe Rocco, Jr. rides.
8   Elusive Fate 12/1   Longshot player was a fine allowance winner here two prior in her lone dirt try to date, and the Rusty Arnold trainee could be strong while fresh in this affair. Chestnut filly by Elusive Quality has been showing pretty good gate speed as of late, and while she is a big question mark from a class standpoint, there is not an abundance of pace in the field and she might carve out a real nice trip tracking the tempo at a huge price. Bullet half-mile drill in advance of this, Brian Hernandez gets the assignment.
 

4th JP5 1m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $67,100. ( 5:27)/ 4:27/ 3:27/ 2:27
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Thanks a Million 3/1   Malcolm Pierce trainee ranks 3rd in Prime Power and we like the son of Lemon Drop Kid in here to pull off a minor upset. Kin to a pair of grassy winners from two to graduate, the Kentucky-bred is out of a fine mare who was a multiple graded winner, and this sophomore has run well from both lifetime tries, including a good third behind a fine winner most recently. The top pick was freshened up since and should be stalking the pace before putting in his winning run in the stretch. Da Silva keeps the mount.
10   Silver Freak 5/2   Prime Power leader and likely one to beat ran a big second at first asking on this lawn and now adds Lasix for conditioner Brian Lynch, 22% adding the Lasix and 15% second time out. Four-year-old son of good turf sire Badge of Silver showed very good pace in that sprint run and will always be in the mix stretching out today, being kin to a pair of grassy stakes winners. Bullet work in advance of this, Luis Contreras stays; tons to like.
4   Best Play 8/1   Contender from the Mark Frostad barn didn't show much last time in a sprint run on this lawn, but that race was surely just a prep and he figures to make a big step forward second off the layoff. Bay colt by Speightstown was second and a nice fourth in the Summer S. (G2) last season as a juvenile and clearly has some ability for a trainer who is a useful 11% second time off the bench. Bay colt had an impossible post last time and draws better today.
7   Best Bard 6/1   Contender has been hanging on the money with six placings from eight lifetime runs, and while we don't often back these types, the son of Shakespeare is often in the mix late and we'd hate top be burned by him in this sequence. Prime Power second goes for James Smith, who is due for a tally here after nine seconds from 25 runners, and the gelding has versatility and a nice post to be well perched once again as the field turns for home. Tyler Pizarro has the call.
 

5th JP5 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $65,000. 5:37/( 4:37)/ 3:37/ 2:37
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 twinspires.com Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   The Pizza Man 3/1   Top selection has the best turn of foot in the field and could get a dream set up with a lot of his foes liking to be sent in the early going. Four-year-old son of top turf sire English Channel dons a fine 7-4-1-1 mark on this turf course for the always sharp barn of Tom Amoss, 26% off of this type of layoff. Illinois-bred is the prime power boss in the field and should be well back early, and flying in the stretch. James Graham will be in the irons.
8   Warbird 5/2   Prime Power 2nd draws outside in this field but has fine form entering this and could love the move to the stakes ranks this afternoon. Conditioner by Wayne Catalano, who is 30% at this meeting, the bay son of War Front has won four of his last five, including three on this lawn, and has the early foot to be in the mix early on from this slot. Go-to pilot Channing Hill rides and is 31% for this barn last 60 days.
2   Tazz 5/1   Prime Power 3rd from the barn of Christine Janks was s superb winner on the main oval most recently in posting a 105 speed number, and the bay son of Roar of the Tiger is a logical inclusion in this wide-open test. Six-time local winner has finished in the exacta 11 times on this turf from 19 tries, and draws inside of the speed which could allow the gelding to make the pace early, or take back some and save ground throughout. Rosemary Homeister rides.
4   Sweet Luca 10/1   Wildcard in the field jumps up in class and goes sprint to route, but the late running son of Candy Ride might get a fine trip in this spot and is worth including as a potential separator in the field. Four-year-old gelding has a big turn of foot and is bred for the mile today, and he seems in the right barn to try this for Chris Block, a 19% turf conditioner. Money rider Eddie Perez rides, and we consider this a sneaky contender at a number.