Jackpot 5 Analysis - 1/26/2014

Jackpot 5 01/26/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 73 Low 70.


1st JP5 6 1/2fAlwOClm $16,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,800. ( 3:30)/ 2:30/ 1:30/12:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Horsin' Around 6/1   Four-year-old daughter of Proud Citizen ran into a nice winner last time and could bounce back as an overlay in the field. Dark bay miss had three wins and a second prior to her latest outing and we really though she ran well in a tough spot on the class rise, showing she belongs in the group. The Kentucky-bred will have a different pace scenario to work with today on an oval where she is 3-for-6, and will make her the upset play to kick off the sequence.
6   Grand Hall 3/1   Chestnut filly by Graeme Hall ran a huge one in a career best showing most recently and will be very tough right back with a similar performance. Four-year-old lass earned a 90 Speed number when topping a group here in advance of this and could be rounding into her best form, as two of her last three have been huge. Trainer Luis Ramirez is thriving here at 39%, and is also 35% with a winner most recently. Jeffrey Sanchez stays -- must use.
9   Pretty Heiress 5/1   Prime Power leader from the Ziadie barn gets a tricky draw widest of all but has tactical speed and a nice turn of foot, so we think she will be able to secure a decent stalking trip in this spot. Daughter of Wildcat Heir has run first and second from two tries on this main oval and could improve off of her last second off the layoff, for a 15% turf to dirt outfit. Zayas will ride and could have this one in a nice position turning for home.

2nd JP5 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 4yo and up, Purse: $23,800. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Skylander 4/1   Top pick from the barn of Wesley Ward will be making his third start off the layoff and could thrive getting back on the lawn. Gelded son of Bring the Heat has some back class in turf dashes and could move forward third time off the layoff coming off a nice second, and the dark bay has the speed to be in the hunt from the opening bell in a group without a ton of pace. Wesley Ward is having a solid meeting and a 25% sprint conditioner, and we like this one pressing the pace and leading into the lane. Dylan Davis rides.
5   Pure Aristotle 6/1   Darrin Miller pupil has run his best races in grassy sprints, and he rates a chance cutting back after a pair of turf routes at Tampa. Gelded son of Pure Precision has yet to race here but always shows good tactical speed and isn't in the deepest field of all time, so we envision this one putting in a nice late run with fine fitness after those last pair. Jeffrey Sanchez rides for a 15% turf trainer -- chance for sure at a good number.
1   Chelsea Brook 3/1   Prime Power leader from the barn of Ralph Ziadie owns the top Average speed in the field and could be any kind on the turf in making his grassy debut. Six-year-old by Montbrook has big early speed and nice form right now, and is also kin to a pair of turf graduates which makes him appealing despite the barn being just 7% first on the green. Expect the bay gelding to be sent from the start and in with a big shot, especially if he clears early on.

3rd JP5 6f Clm $5,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $6,500. ( 4:04)/ 3:04/ 2:04/ 1:04
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
11   Stormy Voyage 4/1   Prime Power second has run a pair of good ones on this oval leading up to this and isn't that far from breaking through in this spot for Gennaro Garcia. Chestnut filly by Roar of the Tiger gets off the rail after two tries there leading up to this, and it might really aid her in running freely early and being in a fine spot at the top of the lane for an outfit at 14% with a beaten fave last time. Improving sort gets a rider change and will be on our tickets.
8   Justifiably Salty 3/1   Prime Power 3rd from the Beck barn did everything but win last time when a big second, and the mare by Vindication will be the one with a forward move on this day. Six-year-old Kentucky-bred is racing back into shape off the layoff and could be all set for this one third off the pine for a barn capable on its best days. This one shows eight top three finishes on this oval from 14 tries, and while she often hangs on the money, she makes sense in this weak field.
9   Belle n' Blackie 5/1   Sandmann pupil was rolling late in a fine closing finish when third in her debut on this surface last time, and the gray daughter of Half Ours will be a contender with a repeat of that showing. Ohio-bred will still need improvement we feel to be a clear cut inclusion, but that first try here was very encouraging and she could be a late factor once again with Dean Sarvis staying along for the ride. Chance if the pace backs up.

4th JP5 6f StrAlw $12,500 4yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 4:19/( 3:19)/ 2:19/ 1:19
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 5-6-7)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Ammaroo 2/1   Exits a nice effort here last out while facing N3L $30,000 competition in his second start back from the layoff and first since being claimed and moved into the barn of trainer Federico Villafranco in which he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by 3 1/4 lengths. The chestnut posted a BRIS Speed rating in that effort that would make him a threat in this spot and Villafranco wins with 20% of his runners next out after winning their start prior. David Mello gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 75% win rate over the last 60 days.
1A   Fifth Date 2/1   Came back from the layoff last out with a nice effort while facing $12,500 claimers in which he took the lead out of the gate and finished well late to claim the victory by 2 1/4 lengths. A repeat of that effort will make him a player in this spot and he is capable of better. Trainer Federico Villafranco wins 19% of the sprints he has a runner in and he will have Alex Birzer in the irons who wins 20% of the sprints he has a mount in. Fifth Date tops the field in BRIS Prime Power and also possesses the best BRIS Class rating.
4   Signature Event 6/1   Came back from the layoff here last out with a nice effort while facing $7,500 competition in his first start since being claimed and moved into the barn of trainer Paul Holthus in which he rallied from 5 1/4 lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by five lengths. A repeat of that effort will make him a threat in this spot and he may be capable of better in his second start back. Channing Hill gets the call and he wins 14% of the sprints he has a mount in.
6   Froggyville 3/1   Made the turf to dirt move here last out while facing starter allowance competition and put in a very nice effort in which he rallied from 6 3/4 lengths off the pace, took the lead, and then was caught late, crossing the wire in second, beaten by only three parts of a length. Trainer Tim Glyshaw wins 18% of the sprints he has a runner in and he will have Terry Thompson in the irons who wins 16% of the sprints he has a mount in.

5th JP5 6fAlwOClm $12,500 4yo and up, Purse: $41,000. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Zarby's Derby Day 4/1   BRIS Prime Power choice has won one of his three starts at Fair Grounds and comes off a fourth place finish at this level and distance here three weeks ago. Son of Leestown is also first on Current and Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Ron Faucheux who wins with 22% of his runners in allowance events and with 29% that were beaten as the favorite in their last start. Dark bay can be running from just off the pace with Richard Eramia in the saddle.
5   Two Left Shoes 3/1   Son of speedy sire Wildcat Shoes is first on BRIS Back Speed and earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when third at this level and distance here three weeks ago and now has a record of 8-1-1-2 at Fair Grounds. Five-year-old is trained by Gary Scherer who won with 13% of his runners since the beginning of last year and gelding can be stalking the early leaders with Rosie Napravnik retaining the mount.
4   Westernator 7/2   Dark bay comes off an unplaced effort over five and a half furlongs here after leading early in mid December and has a record of 3-1-1-0 at today's distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 18% of his runners in allowance events and has won with 19% of his starters at this meet and son of Intimidator can be a factor from the start under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with 22% of his rides for the barn in the last two months.