Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/11-2013

Jackpot 5 10/11/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Clm $40,000 3yo and up, Purse: $47,800. ( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52/12:52
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   One for Jack 3/1   Prime Power leading son of Mutakddim was a sharp second on this lawn two back in the allowance ranks and now drops in to this level, where the four-year-old gelding should have a big chance. Ian Black trainee has been second in two of three races on this lawn and has pretty solid form in advance of this for a conditioner who is 16% with turf runners. Emma Jayne Wilson will ride and likely have this one in the second flight from a good post slot. Jockey/trainer 30% last 60 days.
3   Tex 4/1   Stakes placed son of Exchange Rate comes in off the short layoff for Brian Lynch in this one and rates a chance on the class drop down from the allowance ranks. Gray sophomore is 1-for-3 on this oval with an additional third place finish and exits the same race as our selection, so we consider him a player as an overlay in this spot. Colt goes for a 28% claiming outfit and wouldn't be a surprise to us in this one. Bridgmohan has the assignment.
11   No Look Pass 20/1   Longshot from the barn Martin Drexler will make his second run off the claim and puts the shades back on for a conditioner at 31% with that type of equipment change. Gelded son of Macho Uno doesn't love to win with a single tally and eight seconds, and the bay does fire a lot and we'd prefer to have the four-year-old on the ticket at a 20-1 morning line to kick off the sequence.
7   Milwaukee Blitz 8/1   Bay son of Milwaukee Brew makes his first start since the spring and could be a player in this spot for conditioner Mark Frostad, 21% off of similar types layoffs. Kentucky-bred colt was a nice winner two back at Gulfstream in his debut with blinkers, and then this one ran into a fine field of stakes runners went something went amiss it appears. Stalker will be in the second or third flight early on with Husbands in the silks.

2nd JP5 6f MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $35,000. ( 4:43)/ 3:43/ 2:43/ 1:43
Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta,50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Jimnpauls Last Toy 7/2   Prime Power leader adds Lasix for this one and will hope to run this field off their feet in this spot for Chris Dorris. Juvenile filly is kin to a pair of winners from two to race, and has huge early speed, leading stakes foes to the top of the lane from the 12 post last out, and he looms large getting in light on this occasion. Dylan Davis will guide the pacesetter and one to catch and beat.
6   Gabby Road 6/1   Bay filly by Article of Faith is kin to a two-year-old graduate from two to race and and comes in to this event with some rapid drills, a :46 2/5 bullet move from the gate most recently. Barbara McBride trainee also had a pair of big three furlong drills lately and we imagine this one will come running out of the gate in this dash for a trainer at a decent 12% debut maiden special weight. February foal is by a solid first out sire and surely makes sense in this field.
4   Indy Oaks 6/1   Chestnut daughter of Ocean Indy has trained well leading up to this debut, including a :48 1/5 recent move, for a trainer in Mark Cristel who is 19% debut maiden special weight. May foal is bred top and bottom to be a sprinter and looms a b ig chance as we think she will show speed, for a trainer who could surely get one ready to fire out of the box. Jimenez will ride, chance especially if live in the wagering.

3rd JP5 6 1/2f MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
12   Sneaky Blowout 7/5   BRIS Prime Power selection was claimed by Mike Maker when closing belatedly over seven furlongs at Saratoga in late August while earning top ranking on Speed Last Race. Son of Lawyer Ron, who is a half brother to two winners, is also first on Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and Maker wins with 27% of his runners first off the claim and with 22% that have not raced for 46-90 days. Chestnut may get a good trip from off the pace under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with two of his last nine mounts for the barn.
8   Alshujaa 6/1   $270K weanling purchase comes off a second place finish in his debut at Arlington in early September after a less than perfect start and is a half brother to one winner. Son of Indian Charlie posted a five furlong work in 1:01 here a week ago for trainer Danny Peitz who wins with 11% of his second time starters and with 14% overall in maiden special weight events. Colt can improve here while running from just off the pace with Channing Hill in the saddle.
11   Fight the Tide 5/1   Chestnut earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when closing to finish third at Indiana in late August and is a half brother to one winner. Son of Majestic Warrior has been working well for trainer Bret Calhoun who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and colt can be running from off the pace under Miguel Mena who has won with 11% of his rides for the barn in the laset two months.
3   Jorts 15/1   Newcomer by 8% first out sire Johar will debut for trainer Mike Bell who has won with four of his thirteen starters this year. Gelding posted a four furlong work in 47 2/5 fro the gate here just under two weeks ago and may be ready for a decent effort at first asking at good odds with Corey Lanerie taking the mount.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Clm $10,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $24,000. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta,.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Royal Spun 6/1   David Cotey trainee made a nice late run to be second last time and needs only a slight move forward to be the one in here. Dark bay daughter of Hard Spun has been first or second in two of her last three, all on this oval, and gets in light once again with Chernetz in the saddle. If the speed backs up, expect this lass to be a major factor late.
4   Spring a Latch 5/2   Speedy Prime Power second might have the best early foot in this field and takes a fairly big class drop on this occasion for 13% conditioner Michael Wright. Dark bay sophomore by Spring at Last has twice been second on this oval and faces softer than the $20,000 foes she faced off with last time out, while retaining Jesse Campbell in the irons for this one. Expect the Prime Power second to be on the front end and the target turning for home.
9   Big Hope 4/1   Logical win player was outrun late last time when close to a decent pace, but ran a huge second two back and rates a chance with something similar to that outing. Bay filly by Philanthropist is a winner on this oval with two more runner-up finishes, and the bay has a good running style for this field with her tactical speed. Eurico da Silva will be in the irons for a conditioner going well here at 22%.
6   Fife Ness 10/1   Four-year-old filly is a big number on the morning line as the Prime Power leader, and takes a huge drop down from the allowance ranks leading up to this. Dark bay daughter of Vibank is no win machine at just 1-for-25 but ran a few good ones at this level in the spring against this type of class foes and we think the lass is worth including in case she wakes up at this level once again. Tommy Wong has the riding assignment.

5th JP5 5 1/2f (Turf) Non-graded 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Sweet Cassiopeia 3/1   Consistent five-year-old has a record of 6-3-2-0 sprinting on grass and comes off a second place in a stakes at Churchill last month on the main track after leading in the stretch in her first start after a short break. Trainer Bill Connelly wins with 16% of his runners second time off a layoff and has won with 13% of his starters since the beginning of the year and mare won the Giant's Causeway Stakes over the course and distance in the spring similarily when making her second start off a layoff. Chestnut is reunited with Joe Rocco who won on her in April and, with tactical speed, can get a good trip running from just off the pace.
8   Madame Giry 3/1   Four-year-old won this event twelve months ago when closing late and was last seen when narrowly scoring at Laurel in late September when earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race. Daughter of Castledale was well beaten by the top selection three starts back but may have improved since then for trainer Cam Gambolati who wins with 19% that won their last race and the BRIS Prime Power selection can be a contender from off he pace under Eddie Castro.
7   Silverette 5/2   Daughter of 13% grass sire Street Sense is unbeaten on grass since switching to the surface two starts back and most recently won the Turf Amazon at Parx in early September after pressing the early pace from a wide post. Half sister to Grade Two winner Going Ballistic is trained by Dale Romans who wins with 18% of his runners in non-graded stakes and with 15% that won their last start and filly is ranked a close second on BRIS Prime Power. Gray has speed but has also shown she can run from just off the pace which should enable rider Robby Albarado have her in good position early breaking from a decent post.
3   Making Waves 30/1   Daughter of good turf sprint sire Stormy Atlantic has not been seen since winning on dirt at Delaware in mid-April when claimed by Tony Dutrow. Four-year-old won her one previous start sprinting on grass and Dutrow wins with 24% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 29% first off the claim. Filly has some speed and can be near the front from the start with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle.