Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/12/2013

Jackpot 5 10/12/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 2yo, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   My Brown Eyed Guy 8/5   Prime Power leader from the barn of Kathleen O'Connell has rolled home in three straight following a big second at first asking, and the two-time stakes winner could be the one to catch and beat in here. Dark bay son of With Distinction has won the first two legs of this series in wire to wire fashion and has been finishing up fast, hinting that this two turn debut today will not pose a problem. Talented juvenile goes for a decent 14% layoff barn and continues to train forwardly in advance of this. Looms large under Eddie Nunez.
5   Tropical Force 12/1   Fine maiden winner showed big improvement in his second lifetime start and intrigues us in this spot for trainer Eddie Plesa, Jr. Son of sprint sire In Summation ran down a clear leader to win going away late last time at Gulfstream Park and is bred to handle this trip on his dam's side being out of a Known Fact mare. Barn going well at the meeting at 22% and is also 14% first time going long. Should be a nice price under Juan Leyva.
3   Best Plan Yet 5/2   Foolish Pleasure S. winner has been first or second in four straight since adding blinkers and surely makes sense in this spot for conditioner Stanley Gold, who is a fine 26% with a winner last time out. Bay son of Hear No Evil showed a nice turn of foot while wide from a tricky post in hi8s route debut last time, topping a decent field along the way, and we love the bullet drill leading up to this. Half-brother to Midas Eyes should be saving ground in the early stages.
2   Copa Del Rey 6/1   Contender from the barn of Sal Santoro was a nice third last time when forcing a decent early pace and the juvenile gelding is not impossible in this spot. Florida-bred dark bay could improve second time going long for an outfit at 33% when doing so, and he could get first run on the closers in this field with his good tactical speed from a nice post to show pace. Jesus Rios will ride and could be live turning for home.

2nd JP5 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $70,000. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Nicki Starshine 4/1   Prime Power second from the barn of William White was a big second from off the pace from a real tough post behind the favorite last time, and we'll give this one a chance to turn the tables in this affair. Dark bay filly by Milwaukee Brew has elevated her game since running on the green and dons a 4-2-1-1 mark here, for a conditioner having a nice meeting and is also 21% third time off the layoff. The sophomore handles any kind of turf going and will be closing hard in the lane under Sanchez.
11   Dreaming of Sophia 5/2   Kirk Ziadie trainee was a sharp winner in what we thought was a nice field in a stakes race on this lawn in her grassy debut, and the bay daughter of Lewis Michael rates a big shot obviously in this bulky field. Bay sophomore tops the field in Average Speed and Prime Power for a conditioner who is a sensational 48% at this meeting and 37% second time off the layoff. Impossible to ignore this one despite the tough post -- Gallardo stays and is 7-for-8 for this barn as of late.
10   E B Ryder 5/1   Stakes placed filly is 2-for-3 on this lawn and could be an overlay in this sequence due to not firing last time in a stakes run at Gulfstream in preparation of this one. Bay filly by Bluegrass Cat hails from a fine barn in Wolfson's which is 28% at the meeting, and is very good spotting runners. The late running bay can be very good when she's right, and it's possible she gets a bit of pace to run at in the lane on this occasion. Solid half-mile drill leading up to this; Chamafi rides.

3rd JP5 6 1/2f Alw 2yo Fillies, Purse: $58,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Milam 5/2   Daughter of Street Sense is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and earned top ranking on Speed Last Race when fourth in the Grade Two Pocahantas Stakes at Churchill last month after pressing the pace from the start. Filly worked five furlongs in 59 4/5 here early this month for trainer Eddie Kenneally who wins with 21% of his runners going from a route to a sprint and with 16% of his starters in allowance events and two-year-old can be forwardly placed from the start with Brian Hernandez retaining the mount.
8   Cynical Storm 3/1   $70K yearling purchase has not been seen since breaking her maiden in her debut at Saratoga over five furlongs in mid-August after stalking the early pace and is out of a stakes winning mare. Daughter of Sky Mesa is trained by Todd Pletcher who wins with 26% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 26% that broke their maiden last time out and filly can be near the front early with John Velazquez remaining aboard.
4   Angie's Prim Lady 9/2   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when second at Churchill in mid-September after being prominent from the start in her third career start. Trainer Brad Cox wins with 25% of his runners switching from regular to synthetic dirt and has won with 27% of his starters overall this year and daughter of With Distinction is a half sister to one other winners and can be near the front from the start under Dylan Davis.
6   Maco Light 5/1   Dark bay comes off a maiden breaking win from just off the pace at Arlington in mid-September in her debut while earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race. Trainer Tom Proctor wins with 18% of his runners that broke their maiden in their last start and has won with 16% of his starters since the beginning of the year and daughter of Silver Train can be a contender under David Flores.

4th JP5 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Alterite 9/5   Three-year-old finished sixth to subsequent Arc winner Treve in the French Oaks two back and made her first start in this country a winning one when taking the Grade One Garden City Stakes at this distance at Belmont in her latest in mid-September. BRIS Prime Power selection has a record now of 10-4-2-1 on turf and was Group One placed on two occasions in France before arriving at the barn of Chad Brown who wins with 19% of his runners in graded stakes and has won with 27% of his starters since the beginning of the year. Daughter of Liberato can be best here running from just off the pace with John Velazquez retaining the mount.
7   Kitten's Dumplings 3/1   Daughter of top turf sire Kitten's Joy was last seen when closing to finish fourth in the Del Mar Oaks in mid-August and now has a record of 9-5-1-0 on grass. Three-year-old is from the barn of Mike Maker who wins with 22% of his runners making their first start for 46-90 days and with 21% overall on turf. Filly, who posted a five furlong work in 1:00 two weeks ago has great late acceleration and can be flying late under Julien Leparoux.
5   Emotional Kitten 6/1   Chestnut has not been seen since finishing third in the Grade One Del Mar Oaks in mid-August at this distance and closed strongly to win her one previous start on the Keeneland turf course this spring. Trainer Wesley Ward wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and has won with 19% of his starters this year and daughter of Kitten's Joy can be closing late with Garrett Gomez to ride.
9   I'm Already Sexy 8/1   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when leading from the start to win the Grade Three Pucker Up Stales at Arlington in mid-September and has now won four of her six starts on turf. Daughter of 14% grass sire Ready's Image has been working well for trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 21% of his runners that won their last start and filly can be the one to catch with Florent Geroux retaining the mount.

5th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) MdnClm $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $39,500. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   South to the Sea 12/1   Four-year-old son of Johannesburg didn't fire in a turf sprint last time in his first try with claiming types, but this one has some back form and we can't omit the four-year-old at a fine price for an always dangerous barn. Malcolm Pierce trainee has tactical speed in a field without a ton of pace and where some of the main players are deep closers, and we like the little break and four subsequent morning drills in advance of this with Da Silva riding, 23% for this barn last 60. Chance at a price for sure.
1   Real Justice 6/1   Dark bay son of Macho Uno takes the blinkers off for his third lifetime run and gets the rail for conditioner Daniel Vella. Gelded sophomore will take the big class drop down from the special weight ranks in this one, and also returns to the lawn where he showed a bit of life in a sprint debut on this green. Kin to a turf winner from two to race, the Kentucky-bred will likely be doing his best work in the lane after saving ground early on.
2   Eye of the World 3/1   Prime Power second from the always dangerous Casse barn is 2nd in Prime Power and might have the best closing kick in the field for a conditioner who is at 22% up a class level. Gelded son of very good turf influence English Channel has five winning siblings from five to run, two of the stakes type, and could surely move forward today in just his second outing since December. Patrick Husbands will ride and is 25% for the barn last 60 days.
8   Bookies Nightmare 10/1   Prime Power 3rd has been in over his head on a few occasions but his last two on the lawn with special weight foes have been good, and we might take a shot with a price in this wide-open field. Carolyn Costigan trainee is kin to a grassy winner from one to run and the son of Discreet Cat has run some races that put him right there with the ones to beat in the field. David Moran will ride and likely be near midpack to the turn for home.