Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/13/2013

Jackpot 5 10/13/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $50,000. ( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52/12:52
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) /.20 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10),.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Csonka 10/1   Upset stab adds blinkers on the stretch out today and will be the speed of this field in here at a price, for conditioner Ronald Sadler. Sophomore son of Old Forrester was a sharp second in a sprint debut on this oval but has regressed since, though we think the hood on could keep this one focused and see him lead from the opening bell. Luis Contreras will stay aboard the Prime Power third and should be tough to catch as we expect at a number.
12   Big Thought 4/1   Second timer was part of an entry at 3-10 at first asking, and since we're not sure which half was the money taker, we'll assume it's this one and consider the Paul Attard charge a major player in this field. Dark bay sophomore by Niigon goes for a conditioner at 14% with second time runners and could thrive on the stretch out in trip today with a pedigree that suggests this one can run nearly all day. Matt Moore stays along for the ride.
2   Brighton Rock 6/1   Second timer from the Fitzgerald barn broke slow, made a quick big move early to get into contention and finished a fine second on this main oval at the tricky trip of seven furlongs. Four-year-old colt by Kinshasa is well drawn for a horse with some tactical speed and shows a pair of maintenance drills in advance of this for a mostly obscure barn, that is 0-for-5 for the year. Kin to a winner from two to race, we'll give this one a lot of attention today.
11   Mr Seattle Dancer 10/1   Gelded sophomore ran a big second most recently on the lawn in a much improved effort since adding blinkers, and the equipment change may have done the trick for the Canadian-bred. Bev Chubb trainee will be making just his third start since 2012 and could be fully fit today while going turf to All Weather, and while we're not thrilled with this post, he ran well from the outside last time and has the positional speed to save some ground and cut over in the early stages. David Garcia rides for a low percentage barn.

2nd JP5 6f (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:24)/ 3:24/ 2:24/ 1:24
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta / .20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Excaper 3/1   Gray son of Exchange Rate has won or finished second in 6 of 7 races on this lawn and rates a chance after setting the early tempo in the Woodbine Mile (G1) and tire in the lane. Ian Black trainee has always flashed ability and is due for a signature win, and this could be the spot for the four-year-old, who has banked more than $500,000 as a classy sort. Luis Contreras will guide the Prime Power leader and will be forwardly placed throughout.
5   Phil's Dream 6/1   Five-year-old gelding comes in with wins in five of his last six races, and while we're not sure how classy the gelding is, we can't overlook his fine form for trainer Paul Buttigieg, 19% with a winner last time out. Peaking Canadian was a winner in his lone try on this turf oval and has very good speed and versatility that could find him close today, in a field without a ton of pace. Bullet :59 1/5 in advance of this, Justin Stein rides.
11   Riding the River 5/1   Bay gelding by Wiseman's Ferry has faced Grade 1 and 2 foes in 10 straight and has the class to run down this field late for conditioner David Cotey. 2012 Horse of the Year on this circuit was fourth behind the machine known as Wise Dan last time out and should find this field lacking that one to be a bit easier, though this trip is a bit foreign to this miler. Todd Kabel will guide the six-year-old for a barn at 18% in graded stakes races.
7   Strong Impact 8/1   Bruce Brown trained son of A P Jet is in very solid form coming into this and the New York bred could upset this group with even slight improvement in his debut on this turf course. Dark bay gelding was outrun early in the very deep Turf Monster at Parx last time, but he was a sharp stakes winner three back at the Spa and this long stretch could suit the win contender, for an outfit at 17% with shippers. Alex Solis has the assignment.

3rd JP5 6 1/2f Alw 2yo, Purse: $58,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Cool Cowboy 7/2   Son of promising freshman sire Kodiak Kowboy comes off an impressive gate-to-wire victory in his second start at Arlington last month while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race. Trainer Dale Bennett wins with 12% of his runners that broke their maiden last time out and has won with 23% of his starters since the beginning of the year and colt will likely have the early lead breaking from the rail under Eddie Castro and may be tough to catch.
4   High Roll 9/2   Blinkers are added to son of Roman Ruler who comes off a fading fifth place finish in the Arlington Washington Futurity over a mile last month. Gelding is trained by James DiVito who wins with 28% of his runners using blinkers for the first time and gelding, who may be better sprinting, can be stalking the early leaders with Robby Albarado taking the mount.
6   Pablo Del Monte 3/1   Chestnut is first on BRIS Prime Power and was last seen when breaking his maiden by five lengths in his debut here over four and a half furlongs in the spring. Son of Giant's Causeway is from the barn of Wesley Ward who wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and who saddled two winners from his first nine starters at this meet and colt can be near the front early under Kent Desormeaux.
8   He's Got Talent 5/1   Gelding has not been seen since finishing sixth on grass in a stakes at Colonial Downs in mid-July when making his first start since breaking his maiden at Churchill in his debut. Son of freshman sire Talent Search is also trained by Wesley Ward and may get a good trip running from off what should be a fast early pace here with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.

4th JP5 1 1/2m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $58,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)-keenelandselect.com Super High,five($1 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Honey Lake 5/2   Daughter of top turf sire Dynaformer has a record of 8-1-2-1 on turf and comes off a narrow loss at Kentucky Downs over a mile and five sixteenths last month after setting the pace from the start while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race. Three-year-old is also first on Prime Power and Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Vicky Oliver who wins with 10% of her runners on turf and filly can be forwardly placed from the start with Jon Court retaining the mount.
3   Allegheny Angel 3/1   Three-year-old closed some to finish third over nine furlongs in her latest at Churchill in mid-September and now has a record of 3-1-1-1 on turf. Trainer Ken McPeek wins with 13% of his runners on grass and has won with 16% of his starters since the beginning of the year and daughter of Medaglia d'Oro may get a good trip running from off the pace here with Joe Rocco in the saddle.
6   Tree Hugger 12/1   Four-year-old has failed to win in thirteen tries on grass but has hit the board in six of those efforts and was last seen when fifth behind the top selection at Kentucky Downs last month when making her first start after a short break. Daughter of Forestry is first on BRIS Back Speed and is trained by Keith Chudzik who won with one of his last seven runners second time off a layoff. Dark bay can be running late and may be a contender for a share under James Grahm.
10   Archetype 5/1   Daughter of 13% turf sire Arch was no factor when finishing far behind the top selection at Kentucky Downs in her latest but finished second in her one previous try on the Keeneland turf. Trainer Rusty Arnold wins with 12% of his runners on grass and with 14% in allowance events and filly has shown speed in the past and may be forwardly placed early here with Channing Hill up.

5th JP5 6f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $67,100. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Holy Whirl Wind 2/1   Prime Power leader and horse to beat from the barn of Reade Baker draws widest and seems likely to break through very soon, with a trio of runner-up finishes in advance of this. Gelded son of Pulpit has very good early foot which might be him to be a major factor in this one and the outside draw might benefit him in here to give him a target in the lane. Kin to a grassy winner, the sophomore looms large under James McAleny.
3   Transcend 4/1   Four-year-old son of Candy Ride has run a pair of even ones on the main oval and could have the best chance to upend the favorite in this field for Brian Lynch, 16% at this meeting. Kin to a grassy winner from one to race, the gelding clearly has ability and goes for an outfit at 26% with a beaten favorite last time. We like the move back to the lawn third off the layoff and give this one a big shot in a mostly modest field.
1   Magic Stripe 5/1   Gelded son of Exchange Rate didn't stay in a route debut on the main oval last time but ran a pair of good ones on the lawn prior to that and rates a chance with a nice draw along the rail. Gelded sophomore has a pair of winning siblings, one a turf winner, and gets Lasix for the first time which often aids horses. Emma Jayne rides and should be in the first or second flight from the opening bell.