Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/18/2013

Jackpot 5 10/18/2013


1st JP5 5f (Turf) Clm $7,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $14,000. ( 3:51)/ 2:51/ 1:51/12:51
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta,daily Double (races 4-5)/50-cent Pick 3 (races 4-5-6)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   I'mtwentyfourcarat 6/1   Dark bay daughter of Gotcha gold will make her grassy debut in here, and she found a soft field to experiment on the lawn fort an outfit at 2-for-47 first on the green. The sophomore filly has some pedigree for the weeds and has the right running style with very good tactical foot and a nice post to track the tempo and be perfectly placed turning for home. We'll take a shot at a price here with Frankie Pennington in the silks.
6   Everytricknthebook 8/5   Prime Power leader ran mostly evenly in a turf dash at Belmont last time when in with much tougher and looks like the main danger in this field for Terri Pompay. Bay daughter of good turf influence Bernstein has a nice pedigree to handle the turf and makes her second run on the lawn and third off the layoff, for a conditioner who is 22% thi5rd time off the break. Jose Ferrer will ride and could be stalking the pace from the opening bell.
1   Miss Audreyanna 6/1   Five-year-old mare by Lion Heart has some appeal in this field at a price, and we'll include her in the sequence some. Five-year-old cuts back from a route, has speed from the rail and also makes just her fourth start since February 2012, and it appears that she has needed the fitness in her races. Barn 11% route to sprint, Victor Santiago will be in the irons and sending from the opening bell.

2nd JP5 1m 70 Yards (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up, Purse: $30,000. ( 4:22)/ 3:22/ 2:22/ 1:22
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta,daily Double (races 5-6)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Dear John 3/1   Ramon Moya trainee won going away against a few of these last time and gets the nod right back in this turf run. Five-year-old gelding has now been first or second in three straight runs, two on the green, and ranks 3rd in Prime Power in the group for a conditioner who is a fine 30% with a winner last time out. Victor Santiago will ride and likely never be far back early atop the dangerous commodity.
8   Yankee Fourtune 7/2   Six-year-old son of Yankee Gentleman was a fine winner over $20,000 foes at Belmont last time and looms large here with any type of improvement in this turf run. Gelded gray likes to win with a 7-for-21 lifetime line, all but one of those on the turf, and is also 4-for-9 at today's distance. Late runner has a big turn of foot for a barn at 40% when dropping off of a win and 30% with a winner last race, and he looks like a must use.
9   Hello Abraxon 20/1   Four-year-old son of Greeley's Galaxy has proven he is capable on the lawn with a pair of grassy wins at Penn recently, and the speedy sort could cut over and clear these early in a race void of early gas. Michelle Sharp pupil had a nice prep for this when making a big run into the lane before tiring some late at Presque Isle, and we have a hunch this field is a bit softer than that one for his outing second off the layoff. Big price with Carmouche in the reins.
3   Cytherean 6/1   Bobby Dibone trainee has been in good current form since being claimed two back and comes off a solid third at the allowance level to the top pick in the field. Gelded four-year-old by Street Sense was a nice winner two back in wire to wire fashion, but is actually better when he has a target we think, and he should be close early in a race without an abundance of pace. Kentucky-bred will keep Pedro Cotto in the irons for a trainer at 14% with grassy runners.

3rd JP5 1 1/16m Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $58,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Liberated 7/2   Daughter of Curlin is first on BRIS Prime Power and Back Speed and comes off a closing third place finish over seven furlongs at Kentucky Downs last month in her first start after a short break and hit the board in both of her two previous starts on the Keeneland Polytrack. Trainer Vickie Oliver wins with 12% of her runners second time off a layoff and three-year-old may get a good trip closing from off the pace here under Corey Lanerie who won with one of his last five rides for the barn.
5   Two to Tango 6/1   Chestnut was last seen when third on grass at Woodbine in late September when closing from off the pace and has a record of 6-1-2-0 on synthetic surfaces. Daughter of Tapit is first on BRIS Current Class and is from the barn of Brian Lynch who wins with 22% of his runners switching from turf to an all-weather surface and who has won with 15% of his starters this year and filly can be running late with Luis Contreras retaining the mount.
3   Quality Kitten 5/1   Daughter of excellent synthetic surface sire Kitten's Joy earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when breaking her maiden in her debut over six furlongs at Kentucky Downs in late September. Trainer Wayne Catalano wins with 19% of his runners going from a sprint to a route and with 24% of his starters that broke their maiden in their last start and filly can be a contender from just off the pace with Norberto Arroyo remaining aboard.
4   Spring Reason 5/1   Filly has a record of 3-1-2-0 on artificial tracks and comes off a second place finish at Presque Isle over six and a half furlongs last month. Daughter of El Prado is trained by Jonathon Sheppard who wins with 22% of his runners going from a sprint to a route and who has won with 18% of his starters since the beginning of the year and four-year-old can be stalking the early leaders with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.

4th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Grade III 3yo Fillies, Purse: $150,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
12   Unbelievable Dream 10/1   Winner of the Grade Three Appalachian Stakes here in the spring has not been seen since finishing third in a stakes at Saratoga after a rough trip but worked five furlongs on the Keeneland turf in 1:01 3/5 eight days ago for trainer Barclay Tagg who wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Tagg has won with 15% of his starters since the beginning of the year and daughter of 15% grass sire Kitalpha attracts the services of rider Rosie Napravnik. Chestnut draws a wide post but Napravnik may be able to work out a good trip closing late after dropping in behind the field quickly after the start.
3   Summer of Fun 2/1   BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a fifth place finish over nine furlongs in the Grade One Garden City Stakes at Belmont last month in her second start after a short break and has a record of 8-3-1-2 on grass. Daughter of Include finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year and is trained by George Weaver who wins with 19% of his runners third time off a layoff. Filly drew a good post and can be forwardly placed from the start with Joe Rocco in the saddle.
8   Overheard 5/1   Daughter of 12% grass sire Macho Uno has won two of her five starts on grass and comes off a second place finish on the main track at Woodbine last month when making her second start after a short break and is first on BRIS Current and Average Class Last 3. Three-year-old is from the barn of Malcolm Pierce who wins with 15% of his runners third time off a layoff and who has won with 20% of his starters since the beginning of the year and bay can be running from off the pace under Eurico Da Silva.
4   Stormin Elle 15/1   Lightly raced three-year-old is unbeaten in her two starts on grass, most recently when winning at this distance at Arlington last month. Daughter of Stormello will make her first start for trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 11% of his runners in graded stakes and who has won with 16% of his starters this meet and, with early speed, filly can be on or near the lead from the start with E T Baird retaining the mount.

5th JP5 1 1/16m MdnClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
1A   Typical Daydream 5/2   Logical Prime Power leader drops down after facing special weight foes in a few straight races and will be tough with his best on this occasion. Gelded son of Smooth Bid has been in the hunt when third and fourth in two straight races and gets a decent draw near the outside to be stalking the pace and be sent on cue under 20% pilot Luis Contreras. Kin to a pair of winners from three to race, the sophomore removes the blinkers and would be of no surprise in this one.
7   Royal Bay 10/1   Prime Power second lacks consistency but ran a big second here three back at this level and the addition of blinkers could put this one in the race from the start for conditioner Scott Fairlie, 19% at the maiden claiming level but just 1-for-20 when adding the hood. Gelded son of Sligo Bay shows a pair of useful drills here since his latest run and he shouldn't lack for fitness, with four route races under his belt. Michelle Rainford rides and is 20% for this barn last 60 days.
10   Major Production 7/2   Gelded son of Strut the Stage has a pair of winning siblings from as many to race, and looms a chance on the class drop alone after facing special weight foes for the most part leading up to this. Bay sophomore is from a cold barn without a top three player at the meeting and might be hard to back for the win, though this drop is huge and the sophomore lands in a very weak spot for the level. Three decent works coming in off the small layoff, and the presence of Todd Kabel adds some appeal for sure.