Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/19/2013

Jackpot 5 10/19/2013


1st JP5 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. ( 4:24)/ 3:24/ 2:24/ 1:24
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta / .20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   No Explaining 2/1   Prime Power queen and likely class of the field ran pretty well against much better in the Canadian (Can-G2) last time and could relish the class relief today for conditioner Roger Attfield. Grade 2 heroine has won or placed in 7 of 9 local runs on this lawn and should be fully fit after racing back into shape following a very long layoff. Six-year-old mare beat a few of these in an allowance test here two back and has to be considered on the ticket for sure. Three straight bullet drills entering this and Contreras rides.
5   Queen of the Waves 4/1   Prime Power 3rd put in an even effort last time in a stakes race at seven panels last time, and her run two back was huge when a head second behind the top pick in this one. Malcolm Pierce trainee has always flashed ability and is in good current form with a ceiling she has likely yet to reach, as the four-year-old filly by English Channel could surely have a forward move off of what we thought was a nice prep for this. Top threat to the top pick in our opinion.
4   Sky High Lady 6/1   Prime Power second from the always dangerous duo of Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands was a dominant winner at Kentucky Downs last time with a big move into and through the stretch and has been second in both local tries, including a runner-up finish in the Flaming Page S. two prior. Chestnut filly by Sky Mesa doesn't have much early speed and this field is not full of pace, but her turn of foot can be potent when she's on her game, for a conditioner at 21% with a winner last time out. Late chance.
1   Part the Seas 5/2   Four-year-old filly by Stormy Atlantic was a sharp stakes winner last time here in her first outing for conditioner Michael DePaulo and gets a cozy rail draw in her comeback. Four-year-old miss, who is a dual winner on this lawn, has trained well since getting a bit of a breather after her last and figures to be right there late after saving ground to the top of the lane. Justin Stein has the call and is 25% for this barn last 60 days.

2nd JP5 1m Non-graded 2yo Colts and/or Geldings, Purse: $85,000. ( 5:11)/ 4:11/ 3:11/ 2:11
Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta,50 Cent Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / 50 Cent Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Bisque 9/5   Dark bay gelding is the morning line choice and likely one to beat in making his second start for trainer Tom Amoss. Indy-bred has run a trio of big ones to kick off his career, with a win and a pair of stakes seconds, including a big try when falling just short in a sprint here most recently. Prime Power leader has a ton of reasons why he may improve in this spot for a 29% sprint to route barn, and his versatility makes him a sure fire must use in this race. Lots to like with Malcolm Franklin riding, who is a sensational 52% for this barn last 60 days.
3   Paul Reiff 12/1   Juvenile colt by A P Warrior made a big middle move only to flatten out late going short last time, but he adds blinkers for this and comes in off of a huge bullet drill, indicating that the equipment change might have aided the youngster. Tony Grantiz pupil is versatile with early speed and a little turn of foot, and the thrice raced two-year-old has a lot of appeal in this race at a price which can be a separator for this sequence. Francisco Torres picks up the ride.
4   Tachi 8/1   Bay son of young sire Cowboy Cal is something of a one run closer with a big turn of foot in sprint races, and he's interesting first time going long for crafty conditioner Donnie von Hemel, 14% first time going a route of ground. Bred to handle this trip and possibly more, the February foal has a nice foundation for this and we think he might be classy enough to pull off this race with his consistent and improving form. Regular rider Jon Court will remain in the saddle.
1A   Mister Pollard 7/2   Juvenile son of Pollard's Vision has won 3 of 5 lifetime including a stakes race here in advance of this, and now the youngster stretches out for the first time, where he could easily improve. Michael Lauer trainee is bred to handle this trip at least and his early foot could be even more deadly as the likely leader in the group for a conditioner at 16% 1st at a route. Miguel Mena stays and will never be far back if he doesn't clear these early on.

3rd JP5 7f Grade II 3yo Fillies, Purse: $250,000. ( 5:23)/ 4:23/ 3:23/ 2:23
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Ciao Bella Luna 4/1   Daughter of excellent synthetic surface sire Tribal Rule shipped here to win the Grade Two Beaumont Stakes at this distance in the spring after starting from a wide post and has a record of 6-3-2-0 on all-weather tracks. Three-year-old was last seen when fourth in the mile and a sixteenth Hollywood Oaks in June and has since joined the barn of Wayne Catalano who wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Filly has been training well at Keeneland and posted a five furlong work in 59 2/5 five days ago and can be running from off the pace starting from a decent post with Ricardo Sanchez in the saddle.
12   Primed for Passion 10/1   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Late Pace Last Race when second as the favorite in a stakes at Presque Isle in late September and has won four of her six starts on all-weather tracks. Trainer Jonathon Sheppard wins with 10% of his runners in graded stakes and with 19% that were beaten as the favorite in their last start and daughter of Flatter worked five furlongs in 58 2/5 here six days ago and can be flying late with Mario Pino retaining the mount.
4   Silsita 7/2   Gray was last seen when sixth in the Grade Two Lake Placid Stakes over nine furlongs on grass at Saratoga in mid-August and won a stakes at Turfway in her one previous start on a synthetic surface. Daughter of Macho Uno is trained by Todd Pletcher who wins with 26% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 22% of his starters in graded stakes and filly can be running from off the pace with Mike Smith here to take the mount.
5   Lighthouse Bay 4/1   Daughter of excellent all-weather surface sire Speightstown has not been seen since finishing fifth in the Grade One Test Stakes at Saratoga in August and will be making her first start on a synthetic track. Filly owns a pedigree to suit the surface and is from the barn of George Weaver who wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Chestnut has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start under Joe Rocco who won with two of his last eight mounts for the barn.

4th JP5 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $52,500. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Ethanol 8/1   Pat Parente trainee was put in way over his head in a recent stakes try on the lawn, but cuts back and drops in class, making him a viable option at a number in this sequence. Gelded son of Marcavelly was a swift debut winner sprinting on the green two back and has earned big E1 and E2 Pace numbers so far that hints he could be the speed of the field at a price for a conditioner at 21% for this meeting. We loved the :48 bullet leading up to this, and will surely use this one under David Moran.
10   Silent Yet Deadly 3/1   Gelded son of Silent Name made a winning move and just missed in a big second last time, finishing well clear of his nearest foe. Sophomore has done most of his best work on this main oval and his running style could suit this field if the pair with big early speed engage early on, which is surely a possibility. The dark bay is versatile with his style as he could be sent or sit off of it, and we think pilot Justin Stein will lay back early and make a late run. 25% jockey/trainer combo last 60 days, very appealing.
6   Sparrowhawk 4/1   Gray son of Old Forrester ran a big one last time in defeat -- dueling early, taking a lead in the lane and ultimately finishing third on this main oval -- and now cuts back to six panels. Capable colt has always fired from four lifetime races and should be plenty fit for this one and what we think is a bright move running six panels. The sophomore has won or placed in each of his three lifetime races here, tops the field in Prime Power and has a fine post for the running style. Bullet work in tow adds to the appeal.
11   Canuspellpatience 10/1   Gelded son of Marcavelly might be the wildcard in the field and we'd prefer to have the speedster on our tickets. Ralph Biamonte pupil cleared from the 14 post last time to hold a nice edge turning for home only to tire, and if he can settle a bit, could find himself with a target turning for home today after pressing the pace from the start. If this bay could avoid a duel early on, his chances improve. Bridgmohan will guide the three-year-old for a 22% all weather outfit.

5th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 5:55)/ 4:55/ 3:55/ 2:55
Exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)-keenelandselect.com Super High,five($1 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Mutasaawy 4/1   Lasix is added to son of Tapit who showed improvement when third in her latest at Arlington in mid-August when tried on grass for the first time. $350K weanling purchase posted a four furlong work in a sharp 47 seconds flat here early this month for trainer Danny Peitz who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who won with one of his last nine starters using Lasix for the first time. Colt can be along late with Channing Hill in the saddle.
8   Civility Pledge 10/1   Filly facing colts has not been seen since finishing sixth at Gulfstream in late January but has been working well for trainer Vickie Oliver who wins with 12% of her runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Oliver wins with 10% of starters on grass and daughter of 13% turf sire Hard Spun, who is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3, can be stalking the early leaders with Corey Lanerie up.
11   Mt Tronador 6/1   Gelding by 13% turf sire Rock Hard Ten is a half brother to three winners and was last seen when closing some to finish fourth at Kentucky Downs last month while earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race in his first start since April. Three-year-old posted a five furlong work in 1:00 3/5 nine days ago here for trainer Ben Colebrook and can be running late with James Graham opting to remain aboard.
14   March Reward 8/5   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race when second at Churchill in late September after setting the early fractions in his second start after a long break. Son of Grand Reward is trained by Dale Romans who wins with 20% of his runners third time off a layoff and with 14% of his starters on grass and colt can be a contender despite a wide post if he draws in off the AE list.