Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/25/2013

Jackpot 5 10/25/2013


1st JP5 1m (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $20,000. ( 3:51)/ 2:51/ 1:51/12:51
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta,daily Double (races 4-5)/50-cent Pick 3 (races 4-5-6)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Song of Exile 6/1   Gelded son of Stormy Atlantic ran evenly in a turf dash with allowance foes last time and could move up going long and dropping in class for this one for conditioner Michael Pino, 26% with shippers and 15% first time at a route. Kentucky-bred dark bay has ability and hails from a nice family of grassy runners, and his maiden win two back proved that this would be his best oval going forward. Jose Ferrer has the call and will likely have this one forwardly placed from the start.
8   Bold Harmony 10/1   Colt by Johar seems well spotted in this field coming off a nice win at the special weight level, and if the chestnut handles the added ground today, he should be included in this sequence. Hugh McMahon trainee has won or placed in three straight dashes but is bred to get the ground today and gets a nice post to allow pilot Chris DeCarlo to see how the pace looks early and where the place the sophomore. Barn 22% off of this type of short layoff, could be the one to catch if sent.
1   Go Bernie Go 2/1   Prime Power leader from the barn of Luis Carvajal has been second in his last pair of turf runs and looms a big chance from start to finish in this one with his natural gate speed. Son of Western Pride comes off a nice second on the dirt in an off the turf event and continues to be consistent, though not breaking through at the same time. This turf often favors speed, so the chestnut is a must use under solid turf pilot Paco Lopez.
5   Oklahoma Den 3/1   New York-bred son of Utopia has been in very good form in his past few and rates an obvious chance with another move in the right direction today. Chuck Simon trainee led late before settling for a close third in his debut with winners at Monmouth most recently and has a versatile running style that could have the four-year-old stalking or well off the pace in the early stages. Shannon Uske has the ride.

2nd JP5 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $32,000. ( 4:22)/ 3:22/ 2:22/ 1:22
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta,daily Double (races 5-6)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Raro 3/1   Four-year-old filly by War Chant has fine form coming in for conditioner Eddie Broome, winning or placing in six straight, and the Prime Power second makes a ton of sense in this mostly wide open contest. Kentucky-bred filly has proved the ability to be close to swift early tempos and still kick on late, and it's hard to go against the consistency and versatility on the lass with Paco Lopez, a hot 5-for-10 for this barn last 60 days.
10   Philippis 7/2   Prime Power leading daughter of Belong to Me comes into this race with superb current form and surely must be on the ticket despite the wide post to work with. Belsoeur trainee has won four of her last five, all on the turf, and dons a sharp 9-5-3-0 lifetime line on the green for an outfit at 30% with a winner last time out and is also 60% at this meeting from five starters. Tactical sort led throughout on this lawn last time in a tally but has versatility, and could press and pounce in this spot. Pablo Fragoso rides.
8   First Whippoorwill 9/2   Graham Motion conditioned daughter of Mutakddim has never run on this lawn but comes in with very good turf form against mostly similar and rates an obvious chance for a sharp barn, which is 19% with shippers. Five-year-old mare has the speed to be in the hunt in the early going if she needs, but we like her better from off the pace and will consider him a major factor in here with a trip settling early on and making one run. DeCarlo has the assignment.
9   At First Speight 7/2   Bay mare by good turf influence Speightstown is 3-for-7 on the turf and surely fits in with this type today for trainer Richard Vega, 17% with grassy runners. Kentucky-bred, who is a fine 14-for-42 in her lifetime, comes off a fifth place effort in a stakes race at Delaware and takes the drop today while being offered for a tag, and her best puts her right there. Bullet work in advance of this, Hiraldo rides.

3rd JP5 7f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $58,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
12   Del Mar Sunset 7/2   Chestnut has not been seen since breaking his maiden by eight lengths leading from the start at Arlington in early September when making his first start for trainer Wayne Catalano. Daughter of excellent synthetic surface sire Candy Ride posted a four furlong work in 47 2/5 four days ago for Catalano who wins with 19% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 24% that broke their maiden in their last start. Chestnut has speed and can be near the front from the start with Shaun Bridgmohan in the saddle.
8   Big Lute 4/1   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when second at Churchill in late September when making his first start since February. Colt is by Midnight Lute whose offspring have been doing well on all-weather surfaces and is trained by Steve Hobby who wins with 20% of his runners second time off a layoff and who has won with one of his five starters this meet and three-year-old can be a contender from just off the pace under Robby Albarado.
5   Impassable Canyon 5/1   Son of Tapit comes off a narrow loss at Presque Isle Downs over a mile in late September when making his first start since August and now has a record of 4-1-2-0 on all-weather tracks. Trainer Mike Maker wins with 19% of his runners going from a route to a sprint and has won with 20% of his starters at this meet and three-year-old has tactical speed and can be stalking the early leaders under Joe Rocco who won with one of his last three rides for the barn.
1   Simon Eyes 8/1   Gelding won his one previous start on the Keeneland Polytrack and comes off a narrow loss at Presque Isle last month when making his first start for nearly nine months. Son of Street Hero is from the barn of Wesley Ward who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and three-year-old may get a decent trip running from off the pace breaking from the rail under Dylan Davis.

4th JP5 7f MdnClm $12,500 3yo and up, Purse: $24,000. ( 5:28)/ 4:28/ 3:28/ 2:28
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   In Dispute 5/2   Prime Power second from the always dangerous barn of Mark Casse showed nice improvement on this main oval last time when running a nice one on the drop in with maiden claimers, and the son of War Front looms a big chance right back second off the layoff. Kin to a winner from one to race, the sophomore colt traveled very wide throughout last time that surely cost him a few lengths, and he gets a nice post today that should have him saving more ground with his good tactical speed. Barn 24% down a class level; Husbands stays in the irons.
5   Midnight Black 8/1   Tommy Bland charge ran a good one while even on the cutback from a route race here most recently and gets a look at overlaid odds in this field. Gelded son of Survivalist ran into a solid top pair of the level last time, and while still at the same class level, the three-year-old will face easier in this spot and could be the one to pounce if the early ones hook up and duel early on. Tommy Wong rides the interesting win contender.
4   Firm Believer 3/1   Gelded son of Any Given Saturday was a good second while clear of our top play last time and deserves a long look in this one. Renee Kierans trainee goes for a mostly obscure barn that is winless at the meeting and would be hard to single to close out this wager, but the sophomore has speed, seems fairly consistent, and also doesn't land in the deepest field of all time. Dark bay will likely be forwardly placed early and in with a nice chance at the top of the lane if good enough.

5th JP5 6f Clm $32,000 3yo and up, Purse: $33,000. ( 5:53)/ 4:53/ 3:53/ 2:53
Exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)-keenelandselect.com Super High,five($1 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Shmooz Talker 7/2   Five-year-old comes off decent effort in an allowance over six and a half furlongs here earlier in the meet when making his first start since being claimed by Mike Maker and has a record of 4-1-0-1 on all-weather tracks. Maker wins with 31% of his runners second time off the claim and with 27% overall in claiming events and son of Bernstein has tactical speed and can get a good trip running from just off the pace with Rosie Napravnik retaining the mount.
12   Evil Doer 3/1   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race when finishing second in an allowance at Presque Isle in late September and is also first on Current and Average Class Last 3. Five-year-old won his one previous start on the Keeneland Polytrack and is from the barn of Lance Stokes who wins with 20% of his runners in claiming races. Gelding has tactical speed and can be running from just off the pace with Pablo Morales remaining aboard.
11   Tend 5/1   Eight-year-old has won two of his six previous starts on the Keeneland main track and comes off a fourth place finish against better here earlier in the meet. Trainer Joe Woodard wins with 29% of his runners dropping one class and with 26% of his starters in claiming races and son of Dynaformer can be stalking the early leaders under Robby Albarado.
2   Lookn Mighty Fast 8/1   Gelding has a record of 4-1-1-0 at Keeneland and was last seen when fifth at Churchill in late September when making his second start after a short break. Son of Point Given is trained by Greg Foley who wins with 17% of his runners in claiming races and who has won with 13% of his starters since the beginning of the year and seven-year-old can be closing late with Norberto Arroyo up.