Jackpot 5 Analysis - 10/26/2013

Jackpot 5 10/26/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $70,300. ( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52/12:52
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) /.20 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10),.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Carmelita 8/1   Sneaky contender ran a big one last time with a huge middle move before tiring late in a good showing, and we'll try for the upset for trainer Daniel Vella. Bay filly by North Light is a winner on this lawn and could have needed her last off the short layoff, for an outfit capable with all types. The sophomore has some tactical speed and we think she gets the first jump on the late runners in this field. Luis Contreras has the assignment.
9   Savvy Hester 4/1   Multiple stakes placed daughter of Heatseeker is far from a cinch and isn't real fond of crossing the wire in first, but the ricky Griffith charge often fires and could easily top this field being proven with better. Dark bay filly has placed in two of three tries on this sod for a 20% sprint to route outfit, and she could be a bit close to the likely soft pace today going from seven panels to this route event. Patrick Husbands rides the contender.
10   Agawa 5/2   Morning line choice and potential one to beat tops the field in Prime Power and looms large with her best for conditioner Malcolm Pierce. Filly by Curlin has no speed but a big turn of foot, and her last pair have shown nice improvement as a type who is rising in the right direction leading up to this. Ontario-bred goes for a conditioner at 18% with a beaten favorite last time out and will be moving best in the latter stages today.
11   Theogony 8/1   Chestnut filly by Curlin put in a huge late run to be a nice second in an allowance on the main oval, earning a 102 Late Pace figure, and if the lass can duplicate that run on the lawn here, she will be tough to hold off in the lane today. Andrew Smith trainee ran fairly well in a turf try here a few runs previously and could be a major player in this one for a 31% sprint to route conditioner and could thrive second time on the lawn. The outside draw shouldn't hamper the late runner much today under Gary Boulanger.

2nd JP5 6 1/2f Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $100,000. ( 4:24)/ 3:24/ 2:24/ 1:24
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta / .20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Native Bombshell 5/2   Chad Brown trained import tired after showing some speed in the Riskaverse S. at Saratoga in August and we like the surface switch and cut back in trip today for a barn that is good with nearly every kind of runner. Dark bay filly by War Front has very good gate speed and clearly could have needed her last in her initial try since April, for a barn at a fine 30% with this type of layoff. We like that Husbands will be in the irons and consider this one something of a must use. Should be on or pressing the pace from the start.
1   Cabo Queen 6/1   One-run closer lands in a nice spot with a rail post and a field full of speed, and we give this lass a chance with Jesse Campbell in the irons. Daughter of More Than Ready is a two-time winner on this main oval for trainer Stuart Simon and had a nice prep for this when a closing third in an allowance race, and the ability for this one to save ground and make one run makes her appealing today at a price. Barn 20% in non-graded stakes races.
7   Silent Treat 8/1   In-form daughter of Silent Name has won three straight and four of six lifetime on this main oval with a pair of seconds, and the razor sharp miss looms a big shot with another small step forward today. Scott Fairlie trainee ranks 3rd in Prime Power in this field for a trainer at 22% with a winner most recently, and this tactical miss could lead or press the pace before putting in her best move late as a real player in this tough field. Michelle Rainford will ride and is 19% for the barn last 60.
9   Chortle 3/1   Bay filly by Posse has been in good form with four straight top three finishes, all on the Polytrack, and the Ky invader could be a big presence in here during this fine form cycle. Sophomore filly tops the field in Prime Power for trainer Brian Williamson and seems to be going fine right now, with a bullet four panels at Hawthorne last time to prepare for this dash. Justin Stein will ride for a barn at 15% with shippers.

3rd JP5 1m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $60,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Rocking Hall 4/1   Chestnut comes off a win at Arlington at this distance when running from just off the pace while using blinkers for the first time and won his one previous start on this turf course. Son of Grade One turf winner Showing Up has been working well for trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 21% of his runners that won their last start and who has won with 21% of his starters this year. Three-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start under Channing Hill who has won with 38% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
6   Cozzetti 7/2   Gray is first on BRIS Back Speed and Average Class Last 3 and returns to turf over which he has a record of 9-1-1-1 after three in the money finishes on dirt. Son of 14% grass sire Cozzene won the Grade Three American Derby on turf last year for trainer Dale Romans who wins with 14% of his runners on grass and who has won with 14% of his starters this year. Four-year-old has some tactical speed and can be running from just off the pace with Robby Albarado riding.
4   Exothermic 4/1   Son of Empire Maker has been lightly raced through his career and comes off a closing third place finish at Churchill in late September while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race in his first start since January. Four-year-old finished second in his one previous start on the Keeneland turf course for trainer Rusty Arnold who wins with 14% of his runners second off a layoff and with 12% on turf and dark bay can be closing late with Corey Lanerie remaining aboard.
8   Klisz 6/1   BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a close fourth place finish at Kentucky Downs last month when making his second start after a four month break and has won two of his six lifetime starts on turf. Son of 16% grass sire Smarty Jones is from the barn of Michael Ewing who has won with 17% of runners since the beginning of the year and chestnut can be running from off the pace with Leandro Goncalves in the irons.

4th JP5 1m (Turf) Clm $7,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $15,000. ( 4:53)/ 3:53/ 2:53/ 1:53
Win, Place and Show,exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
11   Lily of Johar 4/1   Daughter of Johar will make her first run in 2013 for trainer Gregory Sacco, and her latest run on this lawn resulted in a powerful four length win against just a bit cheaper than this. Five-year-old lass has a nice turn of foot for a trainer capable at 13% off of this type of layoff, and we have a hunch she will be fit coming off a one mile work on the main oval at Monmouth in advance of this endeavor. Chris Decarlo rides and will be relaxed near the back early atop this one.
1   Quincy Lee 5/2   Five-year-old mare by Artie Schiller gets the rail on the class drop and fits in this weak field for trainer Doug Nunn, who is 0-for-31 third time off the layoff. Prime Power 3rd comes off a nice and even effort at the $16,000 level last time on the Monmouth turf and hasn't been in this cheap in the past, and also lands in a very weak field. We're not very fond of backing 3-for-40 runners with complete confidence, but we have to use this five-year-old at the same time. Paco Lopez has the riding assignment.
12   Belongs to Dixie 4/1   Prime Power leading daughter of Belong to Me gets a real tough post for this one, but was a sharp winner on this lawn last time when in with similar, and the Iannotti trainee will be a player once again with anything close to her last. Six-year-old mare has done all of her best work on the lawn and comes in with good form for an outfit at 24% with first start w/trainer. New York bred should be able to save some ground if she breaks and cuts over early on, and she will be a player in this sequence.

5th JP5 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $200,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Finnegans Wake 5/1   Four-year-old will make his first start on a synthetic surface but has a record of 13-2-2-2 on turf and was last seen when running from off the pace to finish a close second in the Bowling Green Handicap at Belmont in early September. Son of Powerscourt is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3 and posted a five furlong work in 1:01 2/5 a week ago for trainer Dale Romans who wins with 15% of his runners in graded stakes and who has won with 14% of his runners since the beginning of the year. Colt can be closing late under Robby Albarado who has won with 18% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
7   Willcox Inn 5/2   BRIS Prime Power is also first on Back Speed and Current Class and comes off a third place finish behind Silver Max and Wise Dan in the off-the-turf Shadwell Mile here early in the meet. Son of Harlan's Holiday now has a record of 5-2-0-2 lifetime on all-weather tracks for trainer Mike Stidham who has won with 20% of his runners since the beginning of the year and five-year-old can be a contender from off the pace with regular rider James Graham aboard.
8   Lea 3/1   Chestnut has not been seen since finsihing a respectable fourth in the Grade One Forego over seven furlongs on a sloppy track at Saratoga in late August in his first start since finishing third on grass behind Wise Dan. Son of First Samurai will make his first start on a synthetic surface for trainer Al Stall who wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with three of his seven starters at this meet. Colt has tactical speed and may not be far from the front early under Brian Hernandez who won with one of his last seven rides for the barn.
2   You Know I Know 10/1   Californian invader comes off an unplaced effort in the Grade One Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita late last month but may be better on all-weather tracks over when he has a record of 5-2-0-2. Trainer John Sadler wins with 16% of his runners in graded stakes and has won with 17% of his starters since the beginning of the year and son of Simon Pure can be running late under Eddie Castro riding for barn that is always dangerous with runners shipping East.