Jackpot 5 Analysis - 11/15/2013

Jackpot 5 11/15/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 46 Low 34.


1st JP5 6 1/2f Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $70,300. ( 3:57)/ 2:57/ 1:57/12:57
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) /.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Good Vibration 7/2   Sharp mare from the Lynch barn steps up in class from the $40,000 ranks but has won three of four and shown versatility in winning going short and long, both on this turf and main oval here. Six-year-old daughter of Thunder Gulch is a two-time winner from three runs on this Polytrack and doesn't land in a very demanding spot, as this field is a well matched one. Prime Power leader has been taken back some in her recent sprints, and we figure she will be closing in this affair. Big chance.
8   Painted Poney 8/1   Bay daughter of Dixie Union makes her first run for Brian Lynch and just her second since September of 2012, when she was a fine debut winner on this main strip. Sophomore filly goes to a sharp outfit that can handle any kind and the recent morning drills have been sharp, including a six-furlong drill in advance of this. We expect the bay to show more early foot this time around and be a live one turning for home under David Moran.
2   Sweet Interlude 5/2   Bay daughter of Mr Greeley from the barn of the always dangerous Mark Casse was a nice maiden winner on this main oval here in her last showing and the sophomore rates a chance right back in this one. Kentucky-bred filly has run a pair of good ones in succession as an improving sort and should be fresh off the layoff, and the recent bullet drill doesn't hurt any. Barn 18% with a maiden winner last time out, Gary Boulanger stays in the irons.
9   Tiny Bear 3/1   Bay filly by Private Vow put in a fine late run to be a close fourth in a turf dash most recently and could be the one to hold off late as the Prime Power second. Reade Baker trainee has won or placed in each lifetime run here and could be a bit more fit for this one after having a few breaks in her running pattern, making just her fourth run today since December. The bay lands in a spot with a hint of early pace and would benefit if the leaders went at it early on. Emma Jayne stays in the saddle.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. ( 4:26)/ 3:26/ 2:26/ 1:26
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta /.20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),.20 Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Ultimate Destiny 5/2   Gelded four-year-old got up last time in a game and big finish on the main oval and has now recorded eight straight top two finishes, all which have come on this main oval. Four-year-old son of Dance to Destiny tops the field in Prime Power and has been a model of consistency for trainer Alec Fehr, who is going well here at a 29% winning rate. Versatile sort could be up front or off of the pace, and we like him either way. Eurico da Silva will be in the irons.
6   James Street 3/1   Josie Carroll trainee could be the one to beat in this well matched field, coming off a fine score in the Durham Cup (Can-G3) here most recently. Six-year-old son of El Prado has a nice turn of foot in a field with some pace signed on, and he could improve second time off the layoff for a conditioner who is 27% at the meeting and 19% with a winner last time out. Patrick Husbands has the call and is 40% for this outfit last 60 days.
8   Occasional View 8/1   Aggressive claim from the barn of Kenny McPeek was nabbed for $100,000 out of a sensational allowance win at Keeneland when he took over with a powerful move at the top of the lane, and the son of Silver Deputy fits in this spot. Ontario-bred dark bay is 3rd in Prime Power in the field for a conditioner at 43% off the claim from a small sample, and he owns a win on this Polytrack oval in the past. Expect the five-year-old gelding to be near midpack in the early going beneath Alan Garcia, who rode him last time.
9   Pender Harbour 4/1   Multiple stakes winner has done some fine things on this main oval and the gelded chestnut looms a major factor in this field from the opening bell. Five-year-old son of Philanthropist just missed last time in a stakes race on the main strip and gets back on this oval, where he dons a solid 13-4-3-2 mark, running well nearly every time. The DePaulo trainee has fine gate speed and should never be that far back with a rider change to Chantal.

3rd JP5 5f (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $43,000. ( 4:34)/ 3:34/ 2:34/ 1:34
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Sayler's Creek 5/2   Son of 15% grass sire Bernstein finished second in one of his two previous starts on turf and comes off a win on the main track at Keeneland in October in his first start since being claimed by Mike Maker when getting up in time from off the pace over five and a half furlongs. Maker wins with 25% of his runners that won their last start and has won with 18% of his starters at this meet and three-year-old should find a decent early pace here to help his closing run style. Dark bay drew a good post and will be the mount of Julien Leparoux who has been winning with 44% of his rides for the barn.
5   Strong Response 12/1   Chestnut has not been seen since finishing second at Presque Isle Downs in mid-June but will make his first start for trainer Tim Schuh who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Son of State City finished second in the Van Berg Stakes at Fair Grounds in one of his two previous starts on turf and posted a four furlong work in 48 3/5 a week ago for Schuh who has won with 20% of his starters this year. Colt may get a good trip from just off what should be a fast early pace with Norberto Arroyo in the saddle.
1   Stormy Rocit 4/1   Speedy son of 15% grass sire Stormy Atlantic comes off a fading unplaced finish after being involved from the start on the main track at Woodbine in early November but may have still needed that race being his second start after a long break. Trainer Brian Lynch wins with 19% of his runners third time off a layoff and won with two of his first five starters this meet and gelding, who won one of his three previous starts sprinting on turf, can be near the front from the start under Alan Garcia.
8   Simple Interest 5/1   Three-year-old will make his first start on turf but should take to the surface being by 14% grass sire Mizzen Mast and comes off a fading unplaced effort over seven furlongs on the main track at Keeneland last month in his first start since August. Trainer Charlie LoPresti wins with 26% of his runners on grass and has won with 18% of his starters this year and gray can be involved from the start under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with one of his last three rides for the barn.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $70,300. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 9-10-11) / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Cleancut Kid 5/2   Well-bred son of Smart Strike gets the widest post to work with but is basically a one-run closer, and the slot shouldn't hurt him all that much. Gelded sophomore has run well from a pair of lifetime tries, a debut win and a third last out, and he comes in fresh for a barn that is very good with runners off the 46-90 layoff. Late runner lands in a field with a handful of early types and will be doing his best work late in his two-turn bow. Gets the slight nod with da Silva riding -- a 25% jockey/trainer combo last 60 days.
1   Silver Freak 8/5   Prime Power boss from the Lynch barn grabs the rail and looks tough in this field for a trainer who looks to have a nice one here. Four-year-old son of Badge of Silver has been first or second in all three lifetime tries to date with a game runner-up showing after making the pace last time, and the cut back a bit in trip could surely aid the four-year-old, combined with a post slot that should have him saving ground every step. Luis Contreras rides the likely one to beat.
5   Eminent Force 6/1   Talented son of War Front bit off more than he could chew in the Labeeb S. (Can-G3) most recently, but his form prior to that was solid and we wouldn't discount the sophomore. Dark bay Ontario-bred was a fine winner in his debut from well off the pace but has flashed speed since, and he landed in a nice spot where he might get a fine trip stalking the pace today while close up under Steven Baher. Could be an overlay in the field and rates a chance turf to main oval.

5th JP5 1m MdnClm $10,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $11,600. ( 5:03)/ 4:03/ 3:03/ 2:03
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Makin Mo Love 7/2   Daughter of Giacomo is a half sister to eight winners and earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when second at Keeneland when caught late after leading from the start. Dark bay is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Phil Sims who wins with 20% of his runners switching from artificial to regular dirt. Three-year-old hit the board in all three of her previous starts on traditional dirt and can be the one to catch again with Norberto Arroyo remaining aboard.
1   Summer Opera 6/1   Three-year-old finished sixth behind the top selection at Keeneland in her latest after a poor start and a wide trip in her first start since finishing second at this level here over six furlongs. Trainer Grant Forster wins with 14% of runners going from an all-weather track to dirt and has won with 13% of his starters this year and daughter of Mineshaft can be running late with Brian Hernandez in the saddle.
5   Flashy Bertie 4/1   Filly comes off a fifth place finish against better here when closing from off the pace early this month over six furlongs and is first on BRIS Current Class. Daughter of Corinthian is out of a stakes winning mare who has produced two winners and is from the barn of Steve Margolis who wins with 14% of his runners going from a sprint to a route and with 20% overall in maiden claiming events. Bay can be stalking the early leaders under Brian Hernandez.
11   Wedding Lass 8/1   Gray has not been seen since earning top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when unplaced against better at Saratoga in early September after showing some early speed on a sloppy track. Daughter of Value Plus has been working forwardly for trainer Dale Romans who wins with 13% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and filly could show more here with Robby Albardo in the irons.