Jackpot 5 Analysis - 11/23/2013


Jackpot 5 11/23/2013



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1st JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $20,000 3yo and up, Purse: $14,450. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Tom Kitten 4/1   Prime Power second gets a tough post draw to work with but has done some good things on this lawn in advance of this and surely fits in with this field. Six-year-old son of Kitten's Joy owns a pair of wins and two placings from five runs on this green and was last seen picking up a very nice tally in an off the turf run here. Trainer Marcus Vitali is 25% with a winner last time out and has given this one a few drills to stay fit. Jose Garcia rides.
7   Majestic Express 3/1   Stakes placed gelding from the red hot barn of Kirk Ziadie, who is 45% at this meeting, was outrun versus tons better last time on the all weather but lands in a very good spot to get back to his winning ways today. Chestnut five-year-old is just 1-for-8 lifetime on the lawn but owns a huge turn of foot and was a fine third here two back in with a very solid field. Prime Power boss with have Quincy Hamilton in the irons and should be near midpack from this post early on.
1   Notimetokill 5/1   Dangerous contender could be the speed of the group and gets a perfect draw on the rail that should aid his running style. Bisnath Parboo trainee dons a solid 9-2-2-2 mark on this green and could be an overlay in the field after being well bet in four straight. Gelded son of With Distinction could be up top a long way if not pressured early and is one to use to kick off this sequence. Martinez inherits the mount.
4   Sweeping Victory 12/1   All or nothing type has won three of his last six but also has been dusted in three others. Javier Negrete charge can be very good when he's right and offers some great value in this one and comes off a game tally on the main oval which could be sparking a nice form cycle. Winless on the lawn, the son of good grass influence Orchard Park has good early foot when asked and just might sit a very good trip pressing the pace to the top of the lane. Worth tossing in.
 

2nd JP5 5f MdnClm $12,500 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,500. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Seek the Dream 3/1   Dark bay daughter of Whywhywhy has excuses we think for her last pair of outings here since shipping over from Presque Isle, and the sophomore gets a long look in this heat. Prime Power second is kin to a winner from one to race and ran into a very good top pair for the level last time when fourth, and was caught chasing lone speed to late stretch the time before. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell is having a solid meet at 18%, and we'll use this interesting contender.
2   Miss Pow Wow 5/2   Gray daughter of Mr Livingston makes her first run since the spring and ran big in her debut when fresh, hinting that she could be live in this tough race. Sophomore Florida-bred likes to come from off the pace some and lands in a group that could produce a contested and sharp early tempo, for a trainer who is capable at 9% with this type of layoff. The gray is kin to a winner and shows a few useful drills leading up to this. Late presence under Juan Delgado.
7   Desi's Proudmoment 8/1   Potter pupil has been hung with some very wide posts leading up to this and gets a nice slot today. Chestnut filly has very good early foot and should be in the mix early today at a price, especially after stopping pretty early last time at this level. Daughter of Bob's Proud Moment has been second here twice and wouldn't be a huge shock in a field lacking depth. Martin Solis will ride and should send this one at the start.
4   Sparenone 4/1   Bay daughter of Keyed Entry could be the speed of the speed and surely could improve today in just her second try of 2013. Sophomore miss busted out of the gate at Gulfstream off the layoff last time before tiring late, but the lass should have gotten a lot out of that showing and could forget to stop in here, especially if she clears them early. She goes for an 18% maiden claiming barn for Colin Maragh, who gave her a half-mil;e breeze on this oval to prepare for this one. Second twice here, the filly could be the one to catch turning for home.
 

3rd JP5 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 4:37)/ 3:37/ 2:37/ 1:37
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
12   Grand Arch 5/1   Could be ready for better in his second start back from the layoff after putting in a solid effort last out while facing stakes competition in which he stalked the pace early but was no match for the winner late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 10 lengths. The gelding hit the board versus some very tough Graded stakes competition in each of his two starts prior and his best effort will make him a threat in this spot. Trainer Brian Lynch wins with 18% of his runners making their second start off the layoff and with 19% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Alan Garcia gets the call and he wins 15% of the turf races he has a mount in.
4   Keep Up 7/2   Is the defending Champion of this event and could be sitting on a big effort today in his third start back from the layoff after putting in a nice effort last out while facing allowance competition on the grass at Keeneland in which he rallied from 3 1/4 lengths off the pace and finished with a determined turn of foot late to claim the victory by three parts of a length. Trainer Alex Clarkson wins 13% of the time with runners making their third start off the layoff and with 22% of his runners next out after winning their start prior. This one is following a similar path that led to victory in last year's running.
7   Coalport 5/1   Had visited the winner's circle in four of five starts on the lawn before being moved to the synthetic last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G2) at Keeneland in early October. The colt put in a dull effort in that performance as he finished fifth, beaten by 6 3/4 lengths, but a return to his prior grass form would make him a major player in this spot. Trainer Wayne Catalano wins with 19% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days and an equal percentage of the turf races he has a runner in. Channing Hill gets the call and he wins 20% of the turf races he has a mount in. Coalport tops the field in BRIS Prime Power and also possesses the best BRIS Class rating.
9   Daddy Nose Best 6/1   Invades from Remington and will be making his first start since the end of September when he reeled off his third win on the grass in a row while facing stakes competition in which he rallied from 3 3/4 lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by 3 1/2 lengths. If he returns from the layoff ready to roll, he will be a threat in this spot and trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 21% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days. In addition, he wins with 21% of his runners shipping to another circuit and 14% of the Graded stakes races he has a runner in. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 20% win rate over the last 60 days.
 

4th JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $46,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 7-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Western Elegance 5/2   Son of 17% grass sire English Channel is out of a mare by Mr. Prospector and was last seen when second on the main track at Hawthorne in late-October as the favorite in his first start after a short break. Gelding finished second when sprinting in the summer at Arlington in his two previous starts on grass for trainer Louis Roussel who wins with 17% of his runners on turf and who has won with 21% of his starters this year. Chestnut looks amongst the fastest early in here and can be near the front from the start with Florent Geroux in the irons.
1   Captain Marvin 5/1   Dark bay has not been seen since finishing unplaced on the main track at Arlington in mid-September but won one of his four previous starts on grass and is trained by Leo Gabriel who wins with 19% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gabriel wins with 11% of his starters on turf and son of 15% grass sire Kitten's Joy can be closing from off the pace under Jamie Theriot.
9   Mongol Boss 7/2   Son of promising young turf sire Street Boss has a record of 4-1-1-1 on grass and was last seen when unplaced on the main track at Keeneland in late October. Trainer Mike Maker wins with 21% of his starters on turf and has won with 23% of his runners since the beginning of the year and three-year-old can be a contender running from just off the early pace with Chris Landeros aboard.
6   Wilcox 7/2   Gelding comes off an unplaced effort on the main track at Woodbine late last month in his first start after a short break and has a record of 6-2-1-0 on turf. Son of Giant's Causeway is trained by Josie Carroll who wins with 12% of her runners on grass and who has won with 21% of her starters this year and four-year-old can be running late with Leandro Goncalves taking the mount.
 

5th JP5 6 1/2f MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $41,000. ( 5:08)/ 4:08/ 3:08/ 2:08
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Distorted Music 5/1   Makes the synthetic to dirt move and goes from a route to a sprint in her first start back from the layoff after having not started since early October when she put in a nice effort while facing maiden special weight competition at Keeneland in which she finished third, beaten by 3 3/4 lengths. Trainer Chris Block wins with 34% of his runners making the synthetic to dirt move and with 20% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days. Joseph Rocco Jr. gets the call and he wins 13% of the sprints he has a mount in.
13   Not My Tap 4/1   Makes the synthetic to dirt move in her first start back from the layoff and since being moved into the barn of trainer Stephen Lyster after having not started since back in August when he put in a nice effort while facing maiden special weight competition at Del Mar in which he stalked the pace early, took the lead, and then tired a bit late to cross the wire in second, beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Lyster wins with 17% of his runners making their first start out of his barn and he will have Corey Lanerie in the irons who wins 16% of the sprints he has a mount in.
9   Infliction 10/1   Has been showing steady improvement as of late and jumps up to face maiden special weight competition today after putting in a nice effort last out while facing $50k maiden claimers in which she stalked the pace early, edged ahead, and then lacked the needed kick late, crossing the wire in second, beaten by only a head. Trainer Chuck Peery wins with 25% of his runners going from maiden claiming to maiden special weight competition and 17% of the sprints he has a runner in.
8   Hello Charlie 6/1   Possesses a solid win early pedigree, especially on the sire side as INDIAN CHARLIE produces 15% first out winners while dam SEE MOON has produced five winners from eight starters. The filly has been working steadily leading up to her debut and trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 13% of his first time starters and 18% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in. Norberto Arroyo Jr. gets the call and he wins 14% of the sprints he has a mount in.